Things to follow in the coming week

[charliep]

My attention will be focused on the monthly pool return outlook Thursday. Should come down somewhat but declines in wheat futures will be offset by a lower loonie. Should also be an indication of how much is already prices (wheat ex durum pools).

Am also following the stock indexes/Dow Jones Industrial. Precariously close to breaking 13,000 when it has spent the last 6 months above it. Technicals are not my forte but am watching.

Why other issues will have peoples attention in the coming week.

[charliep]

Actually I will add the Grey Cup. I'll expect some forecasts on the outcome - maybe some wagers.

[cottonpicken]

Canola breaking 464 so i can collect that bottle from wedino.

[cropduster]

Not just the upcoming week.......anxious to hear some of Weber`s clients responses to the Argentinian corn pictures..........pretty bleak!!

[mcfarms]

Yellow pea prices are moving strongly higher around here as high as 8.50 april del.

[wedino]

Canola price needs to add another $400 before I pay. You've got till middle April, tho.

[btjadenlepp]

charlie and others, what do you know about the formulat behind the pro? what weighting to futures, $, sales, forecast, etc.

[just_wondering]

Brenda
They have this really nice dartboard.

[charliep]

The PRO used a spread sheet and was a pretty mechanical process. The PRO calculation uses existing plus the sales program for expected customers and volumes relative to their anticipated deliveries from farmers. The relative weighting of existing sales versus forecasts is only something the CWB knows. Each customer will have an forecast price based on a futures contract and basis (used in the CWB return to pool calculation). Each month the CWB would update the sales program and the basis calculations. From there, it is just a matter of plugging in forecasts for futures and currency into the spreadsheet.

One thing that is different in the new world is dual purpose of the PRO to be both a forecast and a hedgeable value that can be used in their producer pricing options. When I look at the PRO in recent days, my sense it they are treating more like the latter. My own preference would be to get rid PRO forecasts and simpley have a fixed/daily price contract that reflects the market (or a hedgeable value relative to the CWB internal estimate of the PRO) with the alternative of early payment option that trades for a percentage of the daily price.

[charliep]

The CWB ability to manage deliveries at the end of the crop year will change the PRO as well. After the "B" series, they will know the volume allocated to them with likely a good portion sold. At this point, they will be accessing risk on the "C" series. The decision to take wheat on the "C" or not will have a big impact on the PRO (potentially). No seems to care but this is a big change. I think a good thing but has to be backed up by a safety valve around summer deliveries.

[cottonpicken]

464 is the breakout.And then its up up and away.