November CWB Pool Return Outlook.

[charliep]

Below is the verbal part of the CWB pool return outlook. Have to express the frustration and amazement over the feed barley "B" series. What good is a forecast when the CWB doesn't even have the gonads to back it up with February to July fixed price contract. Either put out a cash price that the CWB can be held accountable to or do nothing. Why not offer a late winter/spring cash price combined with guaranteed delivery contracts?

Quote: "Pool Return Outlooks
2007-08 crop year
DATE: November 22, 2007
CWB Wheat PRO Reflects High Dollar, Volatile Market
Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its latest Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2007-08 crop year and the first PRO of the year for feed barley in Pool B, which runs from Feb. 1 to July 31, 2008. The PRO for milling wheat is $3 higher to $6 lower than last month's PRO, due to a strengthened Canadian dollar and recent declines in volatile world market prices. Milling durum PROs are $4 to $6 lower compared to October, due primarily to the high dollar. The PRO for Pool A feed barley is unchanged from last month. Two-row malting barley is $3 lower, while six-row is unchanged."

[charliep]

Off original thread topic but a good interview with Greg Porozni, Alberta Grain Commission on the CWB pricing options.

http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/newslett.nsf/all/cotl12516

[kamichel]

Note the 3 higher is only on number 4 HRSW
The rest all lower.
Except feed wheat is 10 higher.

[kamichel]

The 3 higher makes everything sound better. But not many people have number 4 anyway if anyone at all. Also why is there no market for number 5 durum? It is priced the same as feed.

[food4u]

Kamichel--- The way it was explained to me was #'s 1,2,3, go into the human consumption market and #'s 4&5 go into the feed market.

[SASKFARMER3]

5 is feed 4 is food at least in USA!
4- 14:00
5- 1.76

[SASKFARMER3]

Sorry I should have checked the numbers by phone!
#1 HAD 15.25 0.00
#2 HAD 14.75 0.00
#3 HAD 14.50 0.00
#4 HAD 12.00 0.00
#5 HAD 1.80 0.00
Also some dump in pit HRS wheat prics for the CWB supporters that feel 6>25 for a final for 07-08 is the norm!
Nov 30, 2007 8.38
Dec 31, 2007 8.38
Jan 31, 2008 8.42
Feb 29, 2008 8.47
Mar 31, 2008 8.52
May 31, 2008 8.23
NC SP WHT 6.55
Notice the last one, doesnt it look very much similar in price to what we are getting from the CWB based on latest pool for #1 15.5 HM yes we have the best wheat in the world and yes it does fetch a premium. Premium discount! Or does the CWB let the Grain companys take the elevation and handling plus the extra 1.70 just for good measure.

[charliep]

Information from the Australia Barley Board on their pooling system. Will note the flexibility in pooling periods.

http://www.abb.com.au/NewsInformation/MediaReleases/tabid/188/mid/539/newsid539/302/Barley-growers-begin-receiving-Select-Pool-advances/Default.aspx

Barley growers begin receiving Select Pool advances

Posted on Thursday, November 22, 2007


Australian barley growers who supported ABB’s pre-harvest commitment pools have begun receiving record first advances.



ABB’s managing director, Michael Iwaniw, said that unprecedented, recent international grain prices had meant ABB was able to provide record advances for its Select pools against very attractive estimated returns.



“The advances* will be $370/tonne for malting 1 barley and $350/tonne for feed 1 barley for growers who supported ABB’s Select 1 pool on offer from late August until October 8; $325/t for malting 1 and $300/t for feed 1 in the Select 2 pool and $325/t and $262/t for the Select 3 pool,” Mr Iwaniw said.



“These harvest advances are extremely high and they reflect the confidence ABB has in achieving the current estimated returns.



“ABB was pleased with the support for these pools which demonstrate ABB’s willingness to provide options that remain popular and relevant to the majority of local barley growers.”



ABB Select was opened as a pre-harvest commitment option for growers who preferred the flexibility and convenience of ABB’s various pool options. This option allowed growers who prefer to market their grain via pools, the opportunity to take part in the buoyant domestic barley market that existed just before harvest this year.



Those record prices have now started to retreat as international supply and demand become more certain. The Select pools were available to growers across SA, Victoria and New South Wales.



The current estimated returns for the Select pools by grade are:

Select No.1

(closed on October 8)
Malt $437.00
Feed $427.00

Select No.2

(opened Oct 8, closed Oct 29)
Malt $385.00
Feed $360.00

Select No.3

(opened Oct 29, closed November 5)
Malt $380.00
Feed $320.00




* Growers need to deduct the bulk handling, finance and location differential charges from the overall advance figure, as with the harvest pool.

[charliep]

1 Aussie dollar is equal to .8634 loonies.

[malleefarmer]

very very few delivered into the select pools as the cash market was far far ahead, and another companys pool was superior to the select pool by about $25 in my opinion.

[Incognito]

Malee:

What will the Labour Party do to grain marketing in AUS?

How is harvest going?

[kamichel]

At least the feed discounts from the CWB are now a little more humane.

[charliep]

Have to eat my words. The CWB is offering a BPC/FPC on the "B" series.

See today's bulletin.

The CWB is now offering Fixed Price Contract (FPC) and Basis Price Contract (BPC) programs for Pool B feed barley. Program sign-up runs until February 29, 2008.

Will note the fpc is a $25/tonne discount to the PRO. The fpc is also equal to the delivered price for western barley futures. That is the $32 over basis backed of by a rail cost to the current futures price (at least in March) - note that western barley futures is quoted track (loaded rail car) and the CWB fpc still needs an elevation deducted. Putting it another way, the CWB could get long western barley futures, take delivery and deposit $25/tonne in the pooling accounts (assuming the PRO forecast comes true.