new crop oats

[Hermes]

I just recieved a call from lacal buyer offering $2.50 for new crop oats at the bin
Any advice on New crop oats

[SASKFARMER3]

Tell him to take it and shove it where the sun doesnt shine.
3.00 or better should be out their.

[bgmb]

2.50 is way too low I need all of 3.00 for oats to make sense in relation to other crops.

I don't think they will get there doubt i will grow oats next year.

[just_wondering]

$2.50 oats is pretty good in relation to history but when compared to all other new crop prices out there it won't make the rotation.

This assumes the CWB hasnt pre-sold reams of Wheat, Malt, Durum at record low prices again.
Do they do multi year contracts, do they have that mandate, what if there is no Monopoly.

[freewheat]

Oats
Yield 110 X $2.50= $275.00

Fertilizer=N $25.00
P $12.00
S $ 8.00
K $ 5.00
Chemical- Pre-seed $ 5.00
In-crop $ 5.50
Seed- Farm saved $ 8.00
Cash costs- $68.50
Net return- $206.50

Canola Yield 35 X 10.00 $300.00

Fertilizer N- $55.00
P $15.00
S $12.00
K $ 5.00
Chemical Pre-seed $ 5.00
In crop $21.00
Insecticide $10.00
Seed $30.00
$143.00
Net return $197.00

I think oats are a better bet than canola; at least on my farm. Less money to gamble than canola if the weather sucks again. Canola would shine if I could pencil in 45 bushels, but for me I am uncomfortable with that, although it often occurs.
2.50 is an outstanding oat price, historically, as is 10 canola for an entire crop, which is the basis of these calculations, which is iffy at this point. If it froze, hailed etc, the oats would shine, as there is less money thrown in the ground. At least for me.
I will price as much as I dare at 2.50. I have switched some land from canola to oats already.

[freewheat]

Canola gross should be 350, not 300. I did do the mth right, I think. I also did not account for fungicides on the canola, which is a given for us in the wet zone.

[btjadenlepp]

this is a tough one. the s/d for oats is undoubtedly bearish but i for one don't feel prices will fall.