Final 2007 Statistic Canada Crop Production Report

[charliep]

Released the Statistics Canada final crop production report today. Almost all numbers reduced from the September release with barley the most at close to 800,000 tonnes (11 MMT nov vs 10.8 MMT sept) and wheat excluding durum a close second at 650,000 tonnes. Canola 8.75 MMT nov versus 8.86 MMT sept.

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/071206/d071206b.htm

Suspect barley will get WCE attention this am. Number may get MGE attention as well.

[charliep]

Mistake alert. Sept barley 11.8 MMT (not 10.8). Should have coffee before I hit send button.

[SASKFARMER3]

What was my guess in fall for canola?
8.7
Wheat lower
etc.

[charliep]

Markets are basically ignoring the statscan report. MGE is perhaps different with positive numbers on the March to July contracts and a very steep inverse (Nearby months higher than other contracts).

Barley should react to todays production estimate but imported US corn and a disconnect between international feed barley prices are holding things back.

Will note the CWB is talking 3 MMT of barley exports. B pool PRO of $245/tonne port (lets say $195 local or $4.25/bushel) central Alberta/eastern Saskatchewan)with no GDC/delivery opportunity. A birdie tells me the trade has been talking higher values (those that don't believe need to read the market section of the Western Producer more carefully). My S&D says domestic feed barley consumption will be down to 7 MMT, with the 1.5 MMT decrease replaced by corn or calves moving south.