Spring Wheat

[FarmRanger]

I knew a guy years ago who could play commodity trading simulations and make money like crazy. When he tried speculating futures with his own money he lost money.

Makes a big difference if it’s your own money on the line. Fear/greed can alter good judgement. I wouldn’t trade with a broker who was speculating his own money in the market.

[charliep]

To be fair to btjadenlepp, I don't think I have seen a posting from them on using futures. The posting I have seen are on timing sales (including CWB) and basis.

If anyone has mentioned futures, it has been me and hopefully only to encourage some activity on the cash sale side. In the wheat example, it may be better to deliver/price out a 5,000 bu wheat sale and replace with futures - particularly if you have to roll a CWB fpc (CWB takes away carry when you roll a contract forward).

Given the volatility in this market (will not go away), everyone has to be very carefull either hedging, using invertory replacement strategy or 100 % speculating. If you are using a replacement strategy, you may have to keep more of the sales proceeds in your margin account and from there wider stops. You also don't what to sell cash/buy futures the same day. Sell cash on days the market rallies/buy futures on dips.

[charliep]

malleefarmer

No one else with thoughts on your question. My most recent forecasts in this area is the Informa Economics conference. One speaker was cautiously optimistic and the other negative. Will leave others to comment.

Off topic but how many farmers in Australia have a strategic/business plan that describes where they want their businesses to be in five years and how they plan to get there? How many woud have done a SWOT analysis of their business? The SW is strengths and weakness that apply specifically to that that business. Opportunities and threats (OT part) are things over which farmers have no controls. I would put your question in the threat contegory and one that all farmers should be asking themselves if they are making long term investments in growing their business.

[btjadenlepp]

in response to the debate about whether marketing advisors should trade for their own accounts, i understand both sides of this argument. but we are selling discipline, which emotions are the biggest enemy of. for that reason, i don't think we'd give the best advice to our clients if it were biased.

we're also selling a lot more than our market outlooks. these play into the marketing planning package in many ways, but if forecasts were all we were doing we'd just write a newsletter. we don't write a newsletter because it's also our philosophy that the best marketing advice isn't generic, it's tailored to meet the needs of each individual operation. for example part of our initial work in taking on a client is the swot analysis charlie was talking about, which feeds into the development of future strategies.

www.farmlinksolutions.ca

[malleefarmer]

charlie would suggest farmers have done a plan as you describe at one time or another, including myself, but harsh reality is in the last 10 years weve only had at best 3 good years rest frosted or drought or low commodity prices so plans sometimes get shelved and it becomes survival.

The threat in low rainfall envornments is drought and frost and price.
You can manage price to a fair degree but still have to produce it.

[cottonpicken]

My bet is if the "market insights"were so insightfull the log books would go a lot further back.

Some people did see 10 dollar wheat.

Some people know wheat will not be 6 dollars in 08.

Some people do understand the dollar/commodity relationship.

Some people understand fundemental/technical relationships.

Some people do know what the real inflation rate is.

Some people have heard of otc derivatives.

Some people do understand the words monetary debasement or monetized debt.

Some people did buy oil stocks when it was 27$.

Some people did buy copper stocks when it was 80 cents a pound.

Some people know what leverage is.



And most people dont........

[btjadenlepp]

as a final note on this thread, cp or anyone else, i'd be happy to share what i've written, right or wrong, on any of those topics, any time over the last 8 years. my stuff isn't all on the web site but i've kept it in my files. just send me an email with your request.

[charliep]

malleefarmer

Lots of people in western Canada would identify with the impact of weather on a farm business.

My concern now is a pretty bullish attitude among grain farmers in western Canada. This will result in the purchase of more assets (land and machinery) and associated higher debt load. A recession/down turn in the world economy will impact agriculture just like everything else (your original question). Hopefully, when farmers are making these decisions, they are doing a solid review of their business.

[Zaphod]

The best someone can do is predict market direction and probabilities for prices. Anyone else is just fooling themselves or has gotten lucky. To predict actual prices in ag commodities, you've got to be able to predict weather. Good luck with that.

[Zaphod]

Just to reinforce the last thought: If Australia would have produced 20-25 million tonnes of wheat, prices would be at $6, no question.