Charlie,
I see this...
"U.S. to Supply 1/3 of Imports; Stocks Fall to Record Low
December 14, 2007
Joe Sowers
U.S. Wheat Senior Market Analyst
In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the forecast for U.S. wheat exports to 1,175 million bushels (mbu), the highest level since 1995/96. With production problems limiting supplies in every major exporter, U.S. wheat exports are expected to account for 31 percent of global trade – an outcome that will squeeze ending stocks down to bare minimums and sustain record high wheat prices.
With weather problems this year and stocks already low, production in the five major exporters – the U.S., Canada, Argentina, Australia and the EU-27 – is 772 mbu below the 10-year average. Global imports are only expected to fall 73 mbu below average and that is forcing importers to scramble for supplies. As wheat buyers turn to the U.S., USDA predicts U.S. exports will grow 257 mbu (29 percent) above last year and exceed domestic use for the first time since 1995/96. Export sales in the first half of the marketing year (June 1 to Dec. 6) were brisk with the U.S. selling 1,053 mbu or 90 percent of exportable supplies.
The large jump in exports will leave the U.S. with its tightest wheat supply since 1947. U.S. production in 2007/08 was 73 mbu below the 10-year average and beginning stocks were 220 mbu below average. USDA projects stocks at the end of the marketing year will fall to 279 mbu, which is 404 MMT below the 10-year average. The U.S. will hold only 24 percent of its annual domestic use, our lowest stocks-to-use ratio since records were first kept in 1934.
The tight supply situation has spurred U.S. prices to new highs. USDA estimates the annual average farm gate price will rise to a record $6.60 per bushel, up from $4.26 last year and $3.42 in 2005/06. Export prices, of course, are also up with the most dramatic rise seen in durum and soft white (SW). SW offers from the Pacific Northwest were $12.55/bushel last Friday, two and a half times higher than this week last year and nearly four times higher than in December 2005. Hard red spring (HRS) futures sold on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange hit a high of $11.15 on Thursday, three times higher than two years ago."
Charlie,
CDN "Designated Area" growers are the worlds residual suppliers... using a dysfunctional handling/marketing system... that refuses to supply wheat at record prices offered... while fertiliser imput prices are up to 50% higher than in the US.
The worst of both worlds... Clubroot on one side... and the CWB Clubbing us on the other!
I see this...
"U.S. to Supply 1/3 of Imports; Stocks Fall to Record Low
December 14, 2007
Joe Sowers
U.S. Wheat Senior Market Analyst
In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the forecast for U.S. wheat exports to 1,175 million bushels (mbu), the highest level since 1995/96. With production problems limiting supplies in every major exporter, U.S. wheat exports are expected to account for 31 percent of global trade – an outcome that will squeeze ending stocks down to bare minimums and sustain record high wheat prices.
With weather problems this year and stocks already low, production in the five major exporters – the U.S., Canada, Argentina, Australia and the EU-27 – is 772 mbu below the 10-year average. Global imports are only expected to fall 73 mbu below average and that is forcing importers to scramble for supplies. As wheat buyers turn to the U.S., USDA predicts U.S. exports will grow 257 mbu (29 percent) above last year and exceed domestic use for the first time since 1995/96. Export sales in the first half of the marketing year (June 1 to Dec. 6) were brisk with the U.S. selling 1,053 mbu or 90 percent of exportable supplies.
The large jump in exports will leave the U.S. with its tightest wheat supply since 1947. U.S. production in 2007/08 was 73 mbu below the 10-year average and beginning stocks were 220 mbu below average. USDA projects stocks at the end of the marketing year will fall to 279 mbu, which is 404 MMT below the 10-year average. The U.S. will hold only 24 percent of its annual domestic use, our lowest stocks-to-use ratio since records were first kept in 1934.
The tight supply situation has spurred U.S. prices to new highs. USDA estimates the annual average farm gate price will rise to a record $6.60 per bushel, up from $4.26 last year and $3.42 in 2005/06. Export prices, of course, are also up with the most dramatic rise seen in durum and soft white (SW). SW offers from the Pacific Northwest were $12.55/bushel last Friday, two and a half times higher than this week last year and nearly four times higher than in December 2005. Hard red spring (HRS) futures sold on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange hit a high of $11.15 on Thursday, three times higher than two years ago."
Charlie,
CDN "Designated Area" growers are the worlds residual suppliers... using a dysfunctional handling/marketing system... that refuses to supply wheat at record prices offered... while fertiliser imput prices are up to 50% higher than in the US.
The worst of both worlds... Clubroot on one side... and the CWB Clubbing us on the other!
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