Technical Indicators

[Kodiak]

Well, my wife likes it!

On the Feb 100 oz CBOT chart, it looks like a coil is forming, and we're nearly at the end of it. Both the daily and weekly charts look quite similar.

Is it set to go off?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

Interesting evening!

Spoke with our "wise" man from the East! He is well aware of the issues brought forward above.

CIBC and ACA are of particular interest... as the insured (CIBC sub prime holder) bought the insurer (ACA) which in the end means... NO INSURANCE when ACA is belly up!

"ACA Financial
Guaranty Corp. from A to junk level CCC, eight levels below investment grade."


"CIBC confirmed market speculation that ACA is a hedge counterparty to the bank in respect of about $3.5 billion of its U.S. subprime real estate exposure."

http://www.bnn.ca/



The 60 T US debt is met by most common folks at our Christmas Party with pure unabashed disbelief...

NOT POSSIBLE, YOU MUST BE MISTAKEN...

"Taxpayers are now on the hook for a record $59.1 trillion in liabilities, a 2.3% increase from 2006. That amount is equal to $516,348 for every U.S. household. By comparison, U.S. households owe an average of $112,043 for mortgages, car loans, credit cards and all other debt combined."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-05-28-federal-budget_N.htm?csp=34

The US current government debt limit is booked at $9.815 Trillion.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsnews&storyID=2007-09-28T003622Z_01_N27415556_RTRIDST_0_USA-CONGRESS-DEBT-UPDATE-1.XML

"By Donna Smith

WASHINGTON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - With the U.S. government fast approaching its current $8.965 trillion credit limit, the Senate on Thursday gave final congressional approval of an $850 billion increase in U.S. borrowing authority.

The Senate voted 53-42 to raise the debt ceiling to $9.815 trillion, the fifth increase in the U.S. credit limit since President George W. Bush took office in January 2001. The U.S. House of Representatives approved the higher debt limit earlier this year as part of the overall budget resolution and the legislation now goes to Bush for his signature.


"We have no choice but to approve it. If we fail to raise the debt ceiling soon, the U.S. Treasury will default for the first time in its history," said Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus.

"Plainly, especially in this credit crisis, we cannot let that happen," the Montana Democrat added.

The U.S. Treasury Department has been pressing Congress to pass the debt increase quickly. Last week Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the government would hit its current $8.965 trillion debt limit on Oct. 1."

The Alberta Government is looking after the Teachers unfunded pension liabilities of 2 B as part of a fiscal responsibility package.

It is obvious we will most likely have an Alberta Provincal election early in the new year. (Call likely in Jan or early Feb 08)

Hottest issue... The Alberta Government raising of royalties charged the oil and gas sector... (Too MUCH charged claimed by industry)

Water and Environmental issues a close second.... with Health Care right their as well.

Technical Indicators:

2008 will be a very interesting year!

[cottonpicken]

Koadiak,it takes a couple thousand hours of studieing to understand what gold is.Seeing as how its still under its 1980 high,ya theres room for movement.

Tom,looks like i got you started on something.

Something else you should look into is the otc(over the counter)derivatives market.Its up to over 600 trillion dollars.This is were the carnage is coming from.

No person has the brain power to understand how much a trillion is.

A stack of 1000 dollar bills 4 inches high is one million dollars.

A stack of 1000 dollar bills 67 miles high is one trillion dollars.

Now thats perspective.

George Bush has racked up 40% of the us debt.In the early 80's americans were shocked when the debt hit 1 trillion dollars,it took nearly 200 years to get there.

Geo-metrical growth curves ALWAYS collapse.This is proven mathmatical theory.

At some point in time one trillion of debt will be created every month,then every week,then every day, then every hour, then every minute.

Tom,you are talking about stuff i discovered over four years ago.

Tom,my friend you are the one standing on the tracks.

[Kodiak]

I give up.

[charliep]

I likely won't help on the precise targets etc on technical analysis but I think it is very important to use in your hedging strategy.

Had a conversation with a farmer yesterday who was wanting to do hedge new crop wheat using futures. He was very concerned about the volatility however and impact on cash flow via his margin account. The first question is whether your strategy is to hold the position/continue to shovel money into the margin account or do you have a place where you admit to yourself that the market has changed and you need to get out. The strategy will vary with each individual but it needs to be thought about up front.

In a volatile market like the current one, a farm hedger/marketer needs all the tools at their disposal to make decisions including the technical analysis ones. Don't give up. Just crack the whip harder.

[melvill]

One of the indicators that Larry Martin from the George Morris Centre (and one or two others) swears by is MACD.

[bward]

No Kodiak , don't give up! I am watching gold and have noticed that since the last high we have had a coil like you say of lower highs and higher lows. So whats the general rule with that? Are you expecting it to break out to the topside? and possibly make yet an even higher high? Break resistance? Or does a 'coil' mean that buying is over and a sell off is about to start?
Please enighten me with your analysis.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie and Mel,

Back in 1996 I did the exponential derivatives thing... I paid my futures hedge with selling options... the market for wheat topped @ $6.35/bu.

OBVIOUSLY what I did... is now being done by thousands of people... BANKS, Hedge funds... etc.

SO now we must dig up twice as much for our inputs up front... . Year end spending for next crop = $100/ac

Someone thinks we are made of money...

WE ARE NOT.

The banks are as unsettled as we are... perhaps even worse because they themselves are in BIG trouble with Livestock people... Derivatives ... Volatility...

Give me a break!

I am supposed to bet the farm... on a hedge strategy that could bankrupt my family... IF we have a drought next spring/summer? We have already had the driest year since July 1 07... perhaps even a 1 in 100 year event till now!

There is really good reason these markets are where they are!

Technical Indicators & Fundamentals make the market!

Other options need to be in place... like Crop INSURANCE ETC.

My wise man from the east said this... he is right.

Charlie... lay in a fair base... that I can make a profit at through risk management YOU are putting together right now...

And lets not drive this goofy market into orbit and loose many families on assent and reentry!

There has to be a better way!

[Burbert]

The silver bullet, the silver bullet. We are all seeking the silver bullet, to grab/crawl/beat the framers next door, and in the hood to the ground, so we'll be the best/brightest/richest/ sucker on the planet. That's a technical indicator that never changes!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go framers, go...

[Kodiak]

Is it just me, or are the two posts above just too obtuse for words?

[bluefargo]

You got that right!

[TOM4CWB]

Kodiak,

How is your hedge account... how much line of credit are you using to "risk manage" next years (08) crop?

Or if you don't... what contingency have you in place to cover a drought/crop failure... especially on CWB grains? Have you discussed a roll over to 09 if 08 goes snake because of weather problems... with elevator companies who hedge for you?

If the risk taken by hedges is grater than the risk mitigated in the first place... obviously it is a questionable strategy!

Ignoance is bliss...

I would appreciate it if someone could tell me where the $60/t on the CWB basis went in Sept/Oct07!

How much did the CWB loose on the hedges/derivatives traded... that were not properly done... causing our basis to pay back the difference?

So now the pool can go through the roof... cause all us suckers sucked up the problem!

SOmething is rotten in...

[Zaphod]

Charlie had the right approach. Use technicals but keep your stops up to date to minimize the hurt if the market goes against you.

On the March oats, it looks like it's time to buy now that the move above $3 has been confirmed. I'm not in the oats market but I would move the sell-stop somewhere around 2.97-2.99. Just my thoughts.