Technical Indicators

[TOM4CWB]

Kodiak,

Once we work through carry over stocks of oats... how can they go anywhere but up!

The logic simply does not follow that oats can stay down.... long term. $6/bu oats seems altogether reasonable.... when we trade $18/BU DURUM AND $10/BU WHEAT! wHERE ELSE WILL THEY PUT ALL THAT MONEY THEY ARE PRINTING!

Grin!

[TOM4CWB]

kodiak,

Was just finished watching BNN.

CIBC part of the mortgage insurance $2.7T system ACA was a part of.

Said to be bankrupt within weeks.
CIBC said to need Sovereign Infusion like Morgan Stanley.

Reported EU put in 500B then slipped in T to keep system afloat over year end...

WOW hard to keep up with all the monetary "jiggle"!

Must go consult with a WISE person... should be an interesting evening!

[charliep]

tom4cwb

Wish you hadn't told me this. Checked out my CIBC share charts to observe how much pain there has been already. Am a holder/not a trader and still above purchase price but.....

To the topic, I use managed/mutual funds for investments because I don't have the combination of time, knowledge or discipline to trade stocks. Would likely use CWB pooled alternatives for the same reason (provided they could show value/returns track record).

Oops. Back to technical indicators with the thought I can't provide advice because I obviously don't apply what I preach.

[Kodiak]

Well Charlie, you at least seem to feel a twinge of guilt for getting off topic.

Tom, if you want to talk monetary policy, the state of the world's financial systems, or give us a religeous lecture, start another thread.

I'm interested in some chart chat here.....

[cottonpicken]

How well do you know gold Kodiak?

[Kodiak]

Well, my wife likes it!

On the Feb 100 oz CBOT chart, it looks like a coil is forming, and we're nearly at the end of it. Both the daily and weekly charts look quite similar.

Is it set to go off?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

Interesting evening!

Spoke with our "wise" man from the East! He is well aware of the issues brought forward above.

CIBC and ACA are of particular interest... as the insured (CIBC sub prime holder) bought the insurer (ACA) which in the end means... NO INSURANCE when ACA is belly up!

"ACA Financial
Guaranty Corp. from A to junk level CCC, eight levels below investment grade."


"CIBC confirmed market speculation that ACA is a hedge counterparty to the bank in respect of about $3.5 billion of its U.S. subprime real estate exposure."

http://www.bnn.ca/



The 60 T US debt is met by most common folks at our Christmas Party with pure unabashed disbelief...

NOT POSSIBLE, YOU MUST BE MISTAKEN...

"Taxpayers are now on the hook for a record $59.1 trillion in liabilities, a 2.3% increase from 2006. That amount is equal to $516,348 for every U.S. household. By comparison, U.S. households owe an average of $112,043 for mortgages, car loans, credit cards and all other debt combined."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-05-28-federal-budget_N.htm?csp=34

The US current government debt limit is booked at $9.815 Trillion.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsnews&storyID=2007-09-28T003622Z_01_N27415556_RTRIDST_0_USA-CONGRESS-DEBT-UPDATE-1.XML

"By Donna Smith

WASHINGTON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - With the U.S. government fast approaching its current $8.965 trillion credit limit, the Senate on Thursday gave final congressional approval of an $850 billion increase in U.S. borrowing authority.

The Senate voted 53-42 to raise the debt ceiling to $9.815 trillion, the fifth increase in the U.S. credit limit since President George W. Bush took office in January 2001. The U.S. House of Representatives approved the higher debt limit earlier this year as part of the overall budget resolution and the legislation now goes to Bush for his signature.


"We have no choice but to approve it. If we fail to raise the debt ceiling soon, the U.S. Treasury will default for the first time in its history," said Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus.

"Plainly, especially in this credit crisis, we cannot let that happen," the Montana Democrat added.

The U.S. Treasury Department has been pressing Congress to pass the debt increase quickly. Last week Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the government would hit its current $8.965 trillion debt limit on Oct. 1."

The Alberta Government is looking after the Teachers unfunded pension liabilities of 2 B as part of a fiscal responsibility package.

It is obvious we will most likely have an Alberta Provincal election early in the new year. (Call likely in Jan or early Feb 08)

Hottest issue... The Alberta Government raising of royalties charged the oil and gas sector... (Too MUCH charged claimed by industry)

Water and Environmental issues a close second.... with Health Care right their as well.

Technical Indicators:

2008 will be a very interesting year!

[cottonpicken]

Koadiak,it takes a couple thousand hours of studieing to understand what gold is.Seeing as how its still under its 1980 high,ya theres room for movement.

Tom,looks like i got you started on something.

Something else you should look into is the otc(over the counter)derivatives market.Its up to over 600 trillion dollars.This is were the carnage is coming from.

No person has the brain power to understand how much a trillion is.

A stack of 1000 dollar bills 4 inches high is one million dollars.

A stack of 1000 dollar bills 67 miles high is one trillion dollars.

Now thats perspective.

George Bush has racked up 40% of the us debt.In the early 80's americans were shocked when the debt hit 1 trillion dollars,it took nearly 200 years to get there.

Geo-metrical growth curves ALWAYS collapse.This is proven mathmatical theory.

At some point in time one trillion of debt will be created every month,then every week,then every day, then every hour, then every minute.

Tom,you are talking about stuff i discovered over four years ago.

Tom,my friend you are the one standing on the tracks.

[Kodiak]

I give up.

[charliep]

I likely won't help on the precise targets etc on technical analysis but I think it is very important to use in your hedging strategy.

Had a conversation with a farmer yesterday who was wanting to do hedge new crop wheat using futures. He was very concerned about the volatility however and impact on cash flow via his margin account. The first question is whether your strategy is to hold the position/continue to shovel money into the margin account or do you have a place where you admit to yourself that the market has changed and you need to get out. The strategy will vary with each individual but it needs to be thought about up front.

In a volatile market like the current one, a farm hedger/marketer needs all the tools at their disposal to make decisions including the technical analysis ones. Don't give up. Just crack the whip harder.