Technical Indicators

[Kodiak]

I thought it might be interesting and fun to have a thread with brief remarks on technical indicators people might be seeing. I’m certainly no expert on technical trading, but I do pay some attention to charts to augment my selling decisions. And heck, I even like to speculate a bit! Let’s keep the CWB comments, the global warming debate, the religion lessons, and the personal shots out of it.

I’ll start with a couple technical indicators I see that could be forming.

1. A head a shoulders developing in March Oats?

2. A coil about to go off in Feb CBOT Gold?

Anyone else care to contribute?

[TOM4CWB]

Kodiak,

Care to read the "Truth" thread...; Include C.P.'s link!

Our markets are as political as Washington and Moscow.

You have obviously eliminated all the fundamental factors that drive our markets... Since I believe in the predetermined destiny of humanity!

Good luck in figuring it out on technicals alone!

Wisdom is a state of mind, self discipline... and a humble spirit!

[Kodiak]

Geez Tom , you blew it already. Did I say I depend on technicals alone? Didn't I say we could have a little fun? Lighten up.

Here's another one....

March CBOT wheat bounced off the bottom of it's uptrend channel today. Do today's lows need to hold to maintain the trend?

[Kodiak]

Here's a hindsight one that could be confirmed soon.......

A bull flag formed the first week of December, and it worked!?! Have we reached the objective ($3.00 maybe??) it set?

[Kodiak]

Oops, forgot to mention the contract. Here's the last post, fixed up a bit

Here's a hindsight one that could be confirmed soon.......

A bull flag IN MARCH OATS formed the first week of December, and it worked!?! Have we reached the objective ($3.00 maybe??) it set?

[nw9flynn]

I disagree about the head and shoulders in mar oats...we would have needed a defined right shoulder around the 20th of nov to have that. it is too late and the market is looking bullish again. We gapped up on the 11th and it seems like a bull flag may be forming. i would buy on a close above $3 looking for a move above 3.20.

[Kodiak]

Hey, nw9flynn, thanks! I see what you are saying. I was looking at the Oct 1 high, the Nov 7 high, and today's levels. Which one of us is right?

If we close above $3.00 without a plunge below about $2.95, my head and shoulders is invalidated. I think....

[TOM4CWB]

Kodiak,

a.) I see the Chinese just put 5B into Morgan Stanley!

b.) CIBC just had a major US investment turned into Junk Bond Status... 98% decrease in share value over the past year... 12 level decrease in one ratings shot!

c.) US Corporate defaults are going to be 4x as much next year as last... from 1 to 4%;

d.) ratings of debt instruments see US corporate ratings drop about 50% to that of average global sovereign ratings!

You can not eat money... and if you know what the weather will do in the next 12 months, you have a very good base for making a reasonable projection on where markets are headed.

[cottonpicken]

The oat market is at an extremely important level.At my site barcharts.com i have oats old high at 314 in my daily charts but in the monthly and weekly the high is just over 300?

So for the 3% breakout level is either 309 or 327.I'll have to check another site or i'm just missing somethan simple on this one.

Anyways when you hold the oat chart up to all the other ag commodities that have already madesignificant moves its easy to get bullish in a hurry.All the big money in the world will be watching and getting ready to pile in on anything that is showing momentum.

Originally i was pissed off that the ag commodities took so long to start participating in this general bull market but now i think its better because there is way more money following this than there was back in 2003.

On a side note the european centeral bank injected 400 billion into the system.An incredible event.

How many oats are growen in northamerica?

[Kodiak]

flynn, I see your gap on Dec 11.

There is no gap on the electronic chart, just on the open outcry. We're looking at different charts. I've started to ignore the open outcry quotes and charts, as the electronic trade now has way more volume.

[TOM4CWB]

Kodiak,

Once we work through carry over stocks of oats... how can they go anywhere but up!

The logic simply does not follow that oats can stay down.... long term. $6/bu oats seems altogether reasonable.... when we trade $18/BU DURUM AND $10/BU WHEAT! wHERE ELSE WILL THEY PUT ALL THAT MONEY THEY ARE PRINTING!

Grin!

[TOM4CWB]

kodiak,

Was just finished watching BNN.

CIBC part of the mortgage insurance $2.7T system ACA was a part of.

Said to be bankrupt within weeks.
CIBC said to need Sovereign Infusion like Morgan Stanley.

Reported EU put in 500B then slipped in T to keep system afloat over year end...

WOW hard to keep up with all the monetary "jiggle"!

Must go consult with a WISE person... should be an interesting evening!

[charliep]

tom4cwb

Wish you hadn't told me this. Checked out my CIBC share charts to observe how much pain there has been already. Am a holder/not a trader and still above purchase price but.....

To the topic, I use managed/mutual funds for investments because I don't have the combination of time, knowledge or discipline to trade stocks. Would likely use CWB pooled alternatives for the same reason (provided they could show value/returns track record).

Oops. Back to technical indicators with the thought I can't provide advice because I obviously don't apply what I preach.

[Kodiak]

Well Charlie, you at least seem to feel a twinge of guilt for getting off topic.

Tom, if you want to talk monetary policy, the state of the world's financial systems, or give us a religeous lecture, start another thread.

I'm interested in some chart chat here.....

[cottonpicken]

How well do you know gold Kodiak?