Technical Indicators

[melvill]

One of the indicators that Larry Martin from the George Morris Centre (and one or two others) swears by is MACD.

[bward]

No Kodiak , don't give up! I am watching gold and have noticed that since the last high we have had a coil like you say of lower highs and higher lows. So whats the general rule with that? Are you expecting it to break out to the topside? and possibly make yet an even higher high? Break resistance? Or does a 'coil' mean that buying is over and a sell off is about to start?
Please enighten me with your analysis.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie and Mel,

Back in 1996 I did the exponential derivatives thing... I paid my futures hedge with selling options... the market for wheat topped @ $6.35/bu.

OBVIOUSLY what I did... is now being done by thousands of people... BANKS, Hedge funds... etc.

SO now we must dig up twice as much for our inputs up front... . Year end spending for next crop = $100/ac

Someone thinks we are made of money...

WE ARE NOT.

The banks are as unsettled as we are... perhaps even worse because they themselves are in BIG trouble with Livestock people... Derivatives ... Volatility...

Give me a break!

I am supposed to bet the farm... on a hedge strategy that could bankrupt my family... IF we have a drought next spring/summer? We have already had the driest year since July 1 07... perhaps even a 1 in 100 year event till now!

There is really good reason these markets are where they are!

Technical Indicators & Fundamentals make the market!

Other options need to be in place... like Crop INSURANCE ETC.

My wise man from the east said this... he is right.

Charlie... lay in a fair base... that I can make a profit at through risk management YOU are putting together right now...

And lets not drive this goofy market into orbit and loose many families on assent and reentry!

There has to be a better way!

[Burbert]

The silver bullet, the silver bullet. We are all seeking the silver bullet, to grab/crawl/beat the framers next door, and in the hood to the ground, so we'll be the best/brightest/richest/ sucker on the planet. That's a technical indicator that never changes!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go framers, go...

[Kodiak]

Is it just me, or are the two posts above just too obtuse for words?

[bluefargo]

You got that right!

[TOM4CWB]

Kodiak,

How is your hedge account... how much line of credit are you using to "risk manage" next years (08) crop?

Or if you don't... what contingency have you in place to cover a drought/crop failure... especially on CWB grains? Have you discussed a roll over to 09 if 08 goes snake because of weather problems... with elevator companies who hedge for you?

If the risk taken by hedges is grater than the risk mitigated in the first place... obviously it is a questionable strategy!

Ignoance is bliss...

I would appreciate it if someone could tell me where the $60/t on the CWB basis went in Sept/Oct07!

How much did the CWB loose on the hedges/derivatives traded... that were not properly done... causing our basis to pay back the difference?

So now the pool can go through the roof... cause all us suckers sucked up the problem!

SOmething is rotten in...

[Zaphod]

Charlie had the right approach. Use technicals but keep your stops up to date to minimize the hurt if the market goes against you.

On the March oats, it looks like it's time to buy now that the move above $3 has been confirmed. I'm not in the oats market but I would move the sell-stop somewhere around 2.97-2.99. Just my thoughts.