God Talks

[cottonpicken]

The man who seen it first,jim rodgers.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v2Qorx1suyUc.asf

Really,really good interview.
Really plugs ag.
Really puts it into perspective,and kicks the market bears in the balls.

In case your on dial up its a streaming video.
Is there anyone left on dial up?

[Zaphod]

Yes, he certainly saw it first -- back in 1999. Anyone can say that the market will rise some day. That doesn't make someone god, except in their own mind. And who, except for an investor with lots of cash, can wait 8 years for the rally to make them a profit (or prophet for that matter)?

I can say with certainty that the market will fall at some point in the next ten years. Then it will rally again. That doesn't qualify me as a visionary though.

Even Rogers said in this interview that a drought is necessary to get wheat moving higher. No kidding Sherlock. He also said that it will take at least ten years for ag production to catch up to demand. Here's my fearless prediction -- if there is basically normal weather in most parts of the world, it will take two years, three at the outside. And the wheat market will lead the way down.

Sorry, but anyone who thinks they are that brilliant (but won't pick a commodity winner for 2008) needs to be challenged.

[cottonpicken]

Its only been a week but we can already crown zap with stupidest post of 2008.

[charliep]

I'll note the 15 minutes was basically a commercial for his agricultural fund. I didn't see any advice or trading tips. I wouldn't make a 5 year tractor purchase decision (financed) or 20 year land deal based on the premise that today's prices are low and will only go higher.

Over time, I can usually pick a top in the market by headlines/lead stories saying telling the world ag commodities (in this case grain) can only go higher.

[FarmRanger]

Agreed Charlie and Zaphod. I certainly don’t see any “god” skills.

Claiming recession has already hit the US is another debatable point. There very well may be one coming, depending on the effects of housing and credit market declines and fuel price increases, but to say one is already here doesn’t mesh with lower unemployment, higher exports and higher retail sales that the US experienced in 2007.

Cotton, while calling people stupid (for reasons that aren’t immediately apparent and certainly weren‘t explained) might feel good and help feed your feelings of superiority, they don’t help increase discussion very much.

When a link is dumped claiming someone “god”like insight, you’re baiting scepticism. Don’t be surprised when you get it.

[cottonpicken]

Jim doesnt need me to defend his record.

If you would have been listening to his continous buy recommendations(as opposed to charlies continous sell recommendations)you would have done quite well in this years markets.

I call this man "god" because he has made me so much money.He helped stop me from making any DISASTEROUS forward pricing options.
He re-enforces my own believes about the markets with his very intelligent thoughts and perspectives.

If you people want to follow the mainstream herd of "after the fact" analysts,be my guest.But my advice to follow the "proven" proffessionals.

For the record he did make some picks,and he wasn't trying to sell ANYTHING.

[charliep]

I make the recommendations I do because I don't know the future and I recognize the need to turn crop inventory into cash during the sales year. The way I would do this is look for opportunities during year and market a percent of the crop when they appear. Everyone will approach this differently (some are speculators whereas others are very comfortable selling in stages) and financial/debt situation of that business. In your Dr. Jekyl (out and out bullish speculator) and Mr. Hyde (support the CWB) personalities, I note the CWB claim to fame (not necessarily bad) is marketing wheat through the entire crop year as needed by their/your customer.

[charliep]

Cottonpicken

You can perhaps help me reconcile the CWB posistion of forcing farmers to sign the "B" series contract to the protect the 2007/08 (a policy I agree with) and the potential removal of delivery opportunities/opportunities to capture high prices in what could be a very bullish market this summer (yes I said it). The most creative idea that can be offered is the 50 year old strategy of choice of crop years with all the cash flow issues?

Again the issue is to get beyond whether a farmer is bullish or bearish but rather what you do in decision making. I will never criticize a farmer for storing grain provided they understand the risks and can cashflow it.

[bgmb]

Well said Charlie,

I share your contrairian views when the market is low everyone focuses on reasons for it to go lower and vice versa when it is high.

Two years ago the market sentiment was "prices are low and they are going to stay that way for the forseable future" I did the opposite of what most analysts were doing and held on till I could sell at a price where I was making some money.

CP i think you should get out of farming and just trade futures for a living you seem pretty good at it why would you spend time in a tractor or dealing with grain company bullshit just to make money off the markets.

I will be locking in lots of grain for next with these record high prices because i can make unprecidented returns on my farm if they go higher great but i won't bet on it!

[bgmb]

CP

If your man is so Fing smart then why is he giving his advice away for free?

you hold out for 20, and end up selling at 8