USDA Predictions

[cottonpicken]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton101207.html

I dont put much trust in government numbers,especially when it comes to inflation.

Gold in 74 was around 35 dollars,now its 900.Its the only inflation caculator you need.

I will note canola has now gapped up.And i am one step closer to getting a bottle from wedino.

[SASKFARMER3]

Melville I'm Going to slam your comments on the Advisers to sell Canola 25% in November.
DID ANY ONE NOT THINK THAT CANADA HAD A AVERAGE AT BEST TO BELOW AVERAGE CANAOLA CROP (most big hitters (BS"ERS)had a good average crop) south had a poor etc. Australia was poor. Then With all corn seeded in USA did any one believe their was a huge Soybean crop grown. Then it froze in Australia and Argentina etc. Why guys didn't take their CASH ADVANCE and run the game is amazing to me! Were in a new world boys! They BS us on the Frost damage to the US winter Wheat crop Any farmer that came thought the Frost years should have known how bad the damage was. Have a good one boys Its still dry in Indian and Pakistan and they are telling us their on their way to a huge crop. One other note I fired a really good Advisor a few years back when I realized I was reading the Free DTN report word for word in his article.

[SASKFARMER3]

What I find funny about this thread is that the reason I posted it last night was to see what people thought would happen. Interestingly no one commented until the report was out. SF3, why were you not telling farmers to hold this morning before the report?? As Lee said no one has 20/20 vision. But after the fact we are experts.

I do alot of trading, and I've been long and short for quite some time. I 've always loved Charlie's comments, those bad days in the markets when he gives examples of what kind of losses can occur in a single day of trading is remarkable. I've made money this past year and I've lost money. So basically what I'm saying is for you Cotton to say you've been long for three years, you would have lost a ton of money in either futures or options. I don't know where you deal, but I can't buy a three year call.

[cottonpicken]

My calls have always been laid on the table.

As great as today was it was only one day.

[charliep]

What keeps me honest is that for every transaction on a futures market that results in a reported price, there is buyer and a seller (each who is doing that business for their own reason ranging from hedging to speculating). Having lots of these transactions is a good thing (lots of volume and the ability to put a trade on/get out easily). Days like corn yesterday where there are limit moves occur when only one side of the transaction is there to do business (everyone wants to buy/no one sell). A person would want to be on the wrong side of this market. As a hedger on the sell side, you would have to look at whether this is a long term trend or just a blip.

If you don't understand leverage, you are soon going to learn. Having said that, for some (not all) selling inventory to generate cash and buying futures/using a portion in a margin account may be a good thing. You have to have clear objectives in this process, the discipline to stay with the plan and finally the ability to say uncle for periods of time with the courage to re-enter when appropriate. Not everyone can do it (including me).