Grandaddy always said

[cottonpicken]

This is a bitch:
http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/AR/archive/nov07/wheat1107.htm

Some kind of new rust,I would not have posted,but the source seemed to reliable.

[TOM4CWB]

C.P.

Like Clubroot in Canola... BSE in cattle... we are seeing the destabilisation of Ag production... as we intensify to supply a global population... that takes 50% of our most productive capacity out of production from 1950-2010.

Sure we can produce more now than we did in 1950. But look at the population increase that took these acres out of production.

There is very good reason for our grains pricing to jump $150/t... starving people make for a very bad situation.

We can always cut biofuel production and eat the grain... if that becomes needed.

I believe what is being done now with biofuels is bringing the sustainability issue front and centre... we cannot afford to abuse our environment and stick our heads in the sand any longer!

[TOM4CWB]

C.P.

We ain't seen nothin yet.

"Continued dry conditions, and colder weather, will cover the central U.S. during next week. At this time, temperatures are not expected to be cold enough to cause damage to the Plains wheat crop. However, the situation will bear close watching, due to indications of a significant amount of wheat acreage having been seeded very late and not having developed good winter hardiness."
http://dtnag.com/dtnag/common/link.do?contentId=70013&parentId=-1

Warm Weather and Breaking Dormancy
The weather has warmed up greatly the last one to two weeks with no cold snaps and some areas experiencing rain.

"So how will this warm weather influence wheat dormancy asks Darin Newsom, senior markets analyst at DTN? Newson grew up in wheat country in Kansas and his family still farms there.

By mid January, the dormant part of the wheat plant is still largely in the soil and protected from weather swings. Since soil warms up slowly, so will the wheat plant, so it will be slow to come out of dormancy. However if warm weather is accompanied by warm rain, the soil will warm up more quickly and bring the wheat out dormancy.

The key here is that once it comes out of dormancy it can also go back in if it reconditions itself, but that again is a slow process.

If it rains and it remains warm for a spell, wheat will come out of dormancy. If this is followed by a artic snap, well goodbye wheat. But if it cools off again rather slowly then it will recondition itself to cold all over again.

Wheather wheat comes out of dormancy depends on how warm it gets and if it is accompanied by warm rain. But it can safely go back into dormancy if it is given enough time to recondition itself.

Posted at 11:58AM CST Jan 10, 2008 by Dan Davidson"

http://dtnag.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=production&blogEntryId=8a82c0 bc16af6a54011764ddaf0f080a


The 6 to 10 day long range is for above normal temp.... for the Hard Red winter wheat areas of the US.

I wouldn't touch this market from the hedge side with a 1000 mile pole.

[cottonpicken]

Let the shorts fry!

[agstar77]

Listen to the AgDay market commentators, they believe the American government is playing Russian Roulette with the food supply. The whole Ethanol mess will come home to roost. Grain supplies are on a razors edge. If the bare shelves scenario comes to pass, there will be panic. We are importing China's food inflation. While in the short term we will enjoy higher commodity prices , there must be a more stable long term policy, to insure fair prices and adequate food supply. Of course most governments only go from crisis to crisis, or election to election. Our new con /reform government is already managed to turn a surplus operating budget into a possible deficit.

[parsley]

Agstar,

Since you like masterplanning so much, and since you have the CWB model to replicate:

1.Make a list of countries you want better fed, and check it twice.

2. Make a list of the countries that produce crops, naughty or nice, and match them up with the countries needing fattening.

3.Hang the list on the wall at Grain World.

4.Instruct the CWB to arbitrarily declare themselves a world wide transaction agent.

5. Order arms-length Mr. S. Dion, acting on behalf of spokespeepol Director Flaman, Staff Person Allen, and Liberal Orchard, to act as the "Orderly Transactor"'s CEO.

6. Every transaction can slide through the accredited Machej where he can deduct an additional fee from each transaction. Gifts, so to speak.

7. A special account can be set up for some of the fundraised money to flow into important pending projects. Joint gift.

8.Santa Clause is coming to vote.

Your kind of project, agstar.

Parsley