Shorts

[TOM4CWB]

dfarms11,

"Just a farmer?"

The interests we have... are as varied and diversified...

What is a farmer any way?

If we are still growing something today... kudos to us for still being around!

Few grain farmers made it through this last 10 years... without some other business interest supporting their habit somewhere...!

[charliep]

Likely too boring but I find a day like today interesting.

Corn trading finally but strong right into the close.

Soybeans - Hard up all day but closes at the bottom end of the trading range.

Wheat - Changing old/new crop inverse. Will wheat move closer to a carry market versus an inverse? US winter wheat acres down but what about the rest of the world?

[jensend]

sorry you can't deal with it cropduster. and no, i don't lead a harrowsmith lifestyle but i think they are valid questions. have a good day.

[parsley]

jensend,

Canada is one of the G8 countires. Theses countries have a higher per capita income than Sudan, for example.

Would you advocate that Canada's per capita income should be deflated by being averaged amongst ALL the nations in the world?

Devalue Canada's per capita income by, say, $12,000/year? How does that sit with you? Or would YOU like to be the one to set the income you "feel" is "appropriate"?

Parsley

[jensend]

parsley i don't know how you read that into my post. you're not my wife so you can't put words in my mouth. all i was alluding to was the historical tightening of margins after a short (to my mind, anyways) period of higher grain prices. it seems to me that over time this has been bad for farmers. i'm not advocating tightening up farmers incomes, i just wonder who will buy grain at historically high prices. it seemed to me when i was grainfarming i was always trying to sell product to mostly lower income countries and you have to wonder how much they can buy at ten or fifteen dollars per bushel for wheat. i am not a socialist by any means, i just try to look at the bigger picture and try to determine how things will work.

[cropduster]

Thanks Parsley,you`re too polite!Anxious to see what Jenny writes....Controllers, given the airspace, are just that.But put them in another world and they have difficulty adjusting!Probably good that they are/can control only one small kingdom!

[parsley]

Ah, Jensend I cannot voluntarily contain my question:

Does your wife softly whisper your written words in your willing ear?

"i was always trying to sell product to mostly lower income countries"

To which countries did you personally try to sell product? Was it wheat or lentils or er, hemp?


I would hope you would think it would be a good thing if my foreign buyers could buy $25.00 barley. Would you like that, also? Or would you think it too high, and barter it down?

Parsley

[dfarms11]

Also with higher grain prices are going to come higher fert/chem prices. Sure we will make some money this year but I guarantee that all imputs will adjust to these new grain prices, then what happens when the grains drop back down 4 or 5 bucks/bu? What will happen is we can lose the whole farm in 1 year instead of 2 or 3! Guarantee it!

[FarmRanger]

Where there is market volatility there is risk, and therefore profit to be made.
An industry with zero risk will have very close to zero profit potential.

[TOM4CWB]

dfarms11,

When future prices for grain fall... if because of over production... fertiliser prices drop as well. It has happened before... it will happen again!

[jensend]

jeez parsley i'm creeped out. you sit there fantasizing about my wife and me? change your meds or get some counselling! i guess you got so wrapped up in your reverie you missed the colloquialism. anyways, yes i'm sure your organic production will command a premium and from what i understand canada is way behind in production of organic crops. i have said for the last few years that i think anyone cropping less than a few thousand acres should be going organic because i think it will be their ticket to survival and profitability, sorry cropduster for posing those questions. funny how guys like you try to hang some nickname you hope will be derogatory as soon as someone doesn't go with your flow. oh well, probably not worth thinking about anyway. you'd rather think that this price rally is different - it won't be followed by a correction. remember the late seventies: grain prices can't fall god isn't making any more land. dfarms gets my drift (you should catch that pun eh, cropduster). and tom is right, fertilizer prices can drop but they always seem to rise more than they fall back. with increasing concentration of ownership of input suppliers i doubt they will fall back much.

[TOM4CWB]

jensend,

You asked for what you got from Parsley! "you're not my wife so you can't put words in my mouth."

My favorite marketer said this:

"Beware of those who have little else to say but "a short crop has a long tail" -- as you could get your tail in a wringer listening to that advice if you haven't already. Times they are NOT a-changin' as Bob Dylan sang, they have changed!" (Jerry Gulke DTN Columnist Fri Jan 11, 2008 05:32 PM CST)

Wake up ... jensend... and smell the coffee!

[blackjack]

...don't worry about the oilseed and cereal gods jensend...their landlords will want some of the profit too...

[jensend]

yeah i guess you're right. i promise no more subtlety for old parsley to misinterpret. mea culpa.

[parsley]

jensend,

Your visual donned suggestiveness, and although it took only one nano-second to choose a preference for fantasizing about beetles, your diversionary tactics, (along with organics out of the blue), nearly served its' purpose.... to make us forget the question you didn't answer.

Which countries? What product? Subtlety will avoid me, so name them! Or are they inventions of a longtime-fertilized imagination?

Parsley