Shorts

[charliep]

With exception of wheat futures (and not all contracts), crop futures are starting to trade again (i.e. corn and soybeans). Will open interest drop (profit taking/shorts getting out)? Will be interesting the next few days. What the expression, bull markets need to get fed on a continous basis.

[jensend]

in the longer term the question is what price levels are sustainable? at ten or fifteen dollar wheat who can stand the risk of trying to produce with weather variables and inflating costs? won't the stakes just be that much higher and the producer hasn't been the winner over the past twenty years. extreme prices just mean extreme volatility and that is when capitalization is more critical. was the price spike in '95-'96 a good thing for grain farmers in general or did it just lead to higher costs and slimmer margins? as one farmer put it in the mid eighties, 'the last thing we need is ten dollar wheat.' he was right because all it is is inflation and that doesn't help the producers of agricultural commodities over the long term.

[cropduster]

Jenny.....go back to your HARROWSMITH lifestyle.......we don`t need your depression here!

[TOM4CWB]

dfarms11,

"Just a farmer?"

The interests we have... are as varied and diversified...

What is a farmer any way?

If we are still growing something today... kudos to us for still being around!

Few grain farmers made it through this last 10 years... without some other business interest supporting their habit somewhere...!

[charliep]

Likely too boring but I find a day like today interesting.

Corn trading finally but strong right into the close.

Soybeans - Hard up all day but closes at the bottom end of the trading range.

Wheat - Changing old/new crop inverse. Will wheat move closer to a carry market versus an inverse? US winter wheat acres down but what about the rest of the world?

[jensend]

sorry you can't deal with it cropduster. and no, i don't lead a harrowsmith lifestyle but i think they are valid questions. have a good day.

[parsley]

jensend,

Canada is one of the G8 countires. Theses countries have a higher per capita income than Sudan, for example.

Would you advocate that Canada's per capita income should be deflated by being averaged amongst ALL the nations in the world?

Devalue Canada's per capita income by, say, $12,000/year? How does that sit with you? Or would YOU like to be the one to set the income you "feel" is "appropriate"?

Parsley

[jensend]

parsley i don't know how you read that into my post. you're not my wife so you can't put words in my mouth. all i was alluding to was the historical tightening of margins after a short (to my mind, anyways) period of higher grain prices. it seems to me that over time this has been bad for farmers. i'm not advocating tightening up farmers incomes, i just wonder who will buy grain at historically high prices. it seemed to me when i was grainfarming i was always trying to sell product to mostly lower income countries and you have to wonder how much they can buy at ten or fifteen dollars per bushel for wheat. i am not a socialist by any means, i just try to look at the bigger picture and try to determine how things will work.

[cropduster]

Thanks Parsley,you`re too polite!Anxious to see what Jenny writes....Controllers, given the airspace, are just that.But put them in another world and they have difficulty adjusting!Probably good that they are/can control only one small kingdom!

[parsley]

Ah, Jensend I cannot voluntarily contain my question:

Does your wife softly whisper your written words in your willing ear?

"i was always trying to sell product to mostly lower income countries"

To which countries did you personally try to sell product? Was it wheat or lentils or er, hemp?


I would hope you would think it would be a good thing if my foreign buyers could buy $25.00 barley. Would you like that, also? Or would you think it too high, and barter it down?

Parsley

[dfarms11]

Also with higher grain prices are going to come higher fert/chem prices. Sure we will make some money this year but I guarantee that all imputs will adjust to these new grain prices, then what happens when the grains drop back down 4 or 5 bucks/bu? What will happen is we can lose the whole farm in 1 year instead of 2 or 3! Guarantee it!

[FarmRanger]

Where there is market volatility there is risk, and therefore profit to be made.
An industry with zero risk will have very close to zero profit potential.