Shorts

[jensend]

you aren't very good at nuances

[parsley]

I'd agree jensend.

[jensend]

parsley here's my original post:
in the longer term the question is what price levels are sustainable? at ten or fifteen dollar wheat who can stand the risk of trying to produce with weather variables and inflating costs? won't the stakes just be that much higher and the producer hasn't been the winner over the past twenty years. extreme prices just mean extreme volatility and that is when capitalization is more critical. was the price spike in '95-'96 a good thing for grain farmers in general or did it just lead to higher costs and slimmer margins? as one farmer put it in the mid eighties, 'the last thing we need is ten dollar wheat.' he was right because all it is is inflation and that doesn't help the producers of agricultural commodities over the long term


explain to me these 'nuances' of which you speak. where did i become an advocate for the cwb? you like to twist what i say into some sort of statement with which you can argue. the old 'setting up the straw man' thing. i advocate getting rid of the cwb. see, we agree on that! now try, without mentioning the cwb, addressing those issues i first raised. we agree on the price inefficiency of the board. where did i bring that into the discussion? you tried to twist my words into something you could go into your rant against - yawn. i'm done, have a good day.

[parsley]

I'll quote silverback to respond to your request revisiting your first posting. He was brillaint in his choice of questions:


silverback posted Jan 16, 2008 9:15
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
That was very mature J.

Going back to your first post here, the only thing I can take from it is that you feel that having higher prices is a bad thing. Is that correct?

Or are you saying that it would be better if prices are to rise that they only rise a little bit? Who will decide the proper level of price increase?

I am not sure you are watching at the moment since you are not a producing farmer, but the world price for wheat and barley is way higher than what our forced pooling masters think we should receive. I guess this fact makes you happy?

Do you believe that a farmer in ND that is going to be able to sell his wheat at the highest price in generations is doomed to be blasted out of existence because he captured those high prices?

Do you think it is better to have long term debt sitting on the books and not getting paid off in a really good year?

I also don't understand how you can argue that asking small, poorer countries to actually pay the world price for grain is a bad thing? Funny how they are managing to pay for it right now. Do you favor asking different prices in different countries for the same wheat? Who actually gets to decide if that is good policy for the farmers who produced it? If we sold wheat to China and India 15 years ago at less than market value was that smart? They seem to be doing pretty good right now, maybe they will pay more than market value this year if we ask nicely.

UNQUOTE


My not-so-nuancity is really saying nobody would make the statement you did, with a straight face, unless you don't beleive in the free market system.

Here's a tried and true formula:

Two-by-four whack ducking cross-dressers' defense of statements hit and yawn = single desk mentality

Yup.

Parsley
ps Thanks silverback. You are eloquent.

[parsley]

The plus signs didn't post, so I'll redo it:

Two-by-four PLUS
whack PLUS
ducking PLUS
cross-dressers' defense of statements PLUS
hit and yawn

EQUALS

single desk mentality

[TOM4CWB]

jensend,

Since we are talking about the "SHORT" side of things...

Your attack jensend was on the free market system itself, and questioning if it was/is serving grain growers well.

That, my friend, is a huge door to open. The SHORT answer is: It opens straight into the CWB issue.

[jensend]

parsley you are a poor debater and childish to boot. everything you have accused me of is baseless and you can't find any evidence other than by twisting words and throwing enough mud you hope it will stick. might be quicker dismantling the board if you kept silent.

[jensend]

tom i didn't attack the free market. we have all felt the sting of lower farmgate prices over the years. i was merely considering the implications of this runup in prices. i cannot begrudge grain farmers an excellent year. they've had it coming for quite a while now. maybe you could help old parsley find anywhere where i have said i supported the single desk. i can assure you you won't and if you search my posts you'll see where i've said the board has to go. i've lived with free markets (not that there are many that are free in the true sense of the term) for all of my time farming. it just has to be acknowledged that prices go up and down and there are implications to whatever happens. today i read where a number of analysts are saying prices are at levels where price sensitive markets are reducing purchases or finding substitutes for canola. didn't we all know that would happen?

[jensend]

and tom - on the short side of things: do you not short the market when you put on a hedge? maybe some of your neighbours who are sitting on physical stocks would say you're betting against them by not holding out for higher prices. some of those shorts are strictly hedges and will be good management strategies.

[cottonpicken]

Twenty-two stories up watching the water show at the bellagio hotel and laughing my ass off.

Tom and pars are like the two cops off of the dukes of hazard.Continously policing this site and making sure everybody "thinks" just like them.Never excepting somebody else might know something.

Were is my wishy,washy post?

[jensend]

boy, even a disappearing post - pretty scary, eh boys and girls. maybe parsley is actually dick cheney keeping an eye out for canadian terrorists. maybe we'll wind up in cuba with other sask tourists!

[TOM4CWB]

C.P.

I never expected everyone to think like me, and never expect they will!

Jensend... I have on numerous occasions put forward the position that Forward hedgeing does NOT net better returns.

The reverse is the case from my training.

The George Morris Centre taught us this... my KenAgra Management courses 15 years ago taught us this... as I posted a couple of days ago... the AUSSIES have learnt exactly the same thing.

Cash is KING.

[jensend]

does this also disqualify forward pricing production contracts? if you lock in prices ahead of delivery the same logic applies to shorting the market.

[parsley]

Ten yes or no questions jensend. Your opinion.

Please answer them,will you, so that once and for all, you can dis-confuse me. LOL

Of course, they are intuitively obvious for you! As a fellow Agri-viller, humor me, will you?


1. Is having higher prices a bad thing?

2. Should prices rise just a little bit?

3. Should it be soley farmers who decide the proper level of price increase they ask for, for their own grain?

4.If wheat rises to fifteen dollars, should a farmer quit growing because of weather variables?

5. If wheat rises to fifteen dollars, should a farmer quit growing because of inflating costs as opposed to profitability?

6.Should farmers discourage receiving high prices because it will lead to higher costs?

7. Should farmers discourage receiving high prices because it will lead to slimmer margins?

8. Does ten dollar wheat automatically bring inflation?

9. Should small, poorer countries pay the world price for grain?

10. Was the CWB selling wheat to China and India 15 years ago at less than market value, good for Western farmers?

Parsley

[jensend]

okay pars and i'll deal in good faith that then you will address the issues i brought up.

1. Higher prices aren't bad. People on the other side of the deal would tell you that lower prices aren't bad. The market is the market and the price is the price.

2.Prices should rise and fall according to market conditions and supply and demand.

3.Farmers should decide the price they ask. The market will determine the price they get.

4.A farmer should not quit growing wheat at fifteen dollars unless he feels it would be a losing proposition.

5.A farmer should evaluate the risks and rewards of any production decision. If his breakeven yield is not probable then he has to recognize that risk.

6. Farmers should not refuse higher prices.

7. Ditto

8.