Fall/Winter Soil Moisture Conditions

[charliep]

Just had comment from a farmer east of Edmonton about how dry it is and the impact of seeded area. Got me scratching my head again on what farmers will seed this spring.

1) Based on current prices, what acreage shifts will occur in your community?

2) Soil moisture going into the spring. If it is a dry spring, what impact will this have on seeding decisions?

3) How will farmers manage the up front expense issue of some crops (particularly if dry) and yield risk versus the high potential returns?

[SASKFARMER3]

I have been to Calgary, to Regina to Saskatoon to ND and to Winnipeg and Kamsack Sask. from Regina area. And one thing is apparent fast we have no snow cover compared to other years. Hell on our farm we have pushed very little snow so far this year. Now we were really really wet last year but as far as systems so far this winter they seem to have very little moisture associated with them.

[freewheat]

We are more concerned in the east whether we will be able to seed or not due to flooding. Drought is the last thing on my mind. Putting anhydrous on in the mud in October, specifically to dry out the soil and expose it so it cathes less snow, and drys out quicker, is what many guys around here did. To heck with no til until we dry out is the sentiment. If we get much more snow, we're back at land being unseeded like the last two years. It is hard to believe there is potential for a drought as i look out my window.

Oats is the biggie out here. Cheap to grow, good response to late seeding. Economy is the ticket, and oats is the answer for many guys. Canola is too expensive to grow. 8 bucks in 1998 pencilled out way better than 11 does now, mostly due to the amount of risk guys with poor crops since 2003 are willing to take on.

[HFL]

Yes its dry in our area. No rain to speak of since June 07 and no snow so far this winter. We will probably cut out the Mustard and Pea acres and replace them with Durum and Spring Wheat. We hate to patronize the board but we gotta seed something that has a chance to grow.

[TOM4CWB]

HFL,

East (Killam) and central (EDM) AB is dry as well... about 4" of snow.... nothing last fall to get our winter wheat off to a reasonable start.

700 ac of that ww is hanging... I won't price a bu. DOn't have a clue if it will survive, be a huge mess, reseeding may be needed... is pedigreed stock which makes it way worse. This is the worst fall ever for establishment of WW.

The market has good reason to go to $20/bu. on wheat.

[TOM4CWB]

HFL,

Where are you from?

On the CWB... they messed us around in every way possible.

On 06-07 I offered replacement wheat of a different class... would not go to first base to accomodate anything.

The CDN CGC gradeing system is inflexible enough... If we do have to reseed... we could be screwed from WW contamination in spring wheat... which is not a problem in the US system compared to CA.

On top... the basis the CWB gives is unreasonable and unworkable.

US grain Co's are doing the opposite of the CWB. They are only selling on basis.... and let the grower do the futures.

The CWB has totally messed up our system and is training our growers to do the opposite of what the open market would do.

Intentional or otherwise... the CWB is a treat to the grain business... I don't see them for a second being a responsible marketing partner.

AND they need an immediate Darwin award... to fix this problem CROPDUSTER!

[HFL]

Hi Tom: We are north of Medicine Hat. We have 700 acres of Winter Wheat seeded too. Being that we seeded it on Chemfallow there was enough moisture to get it to come up fairly well although a few acres are kinda patchy. We are scared to price any till it comes out of dormancy and we see what we have.