CWB one step behind Real World!

[SASKFARMER3]

Just checked yesterdays DPC and guess what again based on US elevator price in HRS country they are a dollar lower than the american price.
Cash Prices
Location 1/31/08 2/29/08 3/31/08 5/31/08 NC SP WHT
Minot 11.75 11.83 11.93 11.93 9.55
Bowbells 11.80 11.88 11.98 11.98 9.60
Mohall 11.75 11.83 11.93 11.93 9.55
Ryder 11.75 11.83 11.93 11.93 9.55
Niobe 11.72 11.80 11.90 11.90 9.52
Norma 11.75 11.83 11.93 11.93 9.55
Lignite 11.72 11.80 11.90 11.90 9.52
Velva 11.75 11.83 11.93 11.93 9.55
and for Durum
Cash Prices
Location MQ #1 HAD #2 HAD #3 HAD #4 HAD #5 HAD #1 FEED MQ NC
Minot 20.00 19.25 18.75 18.50 16.00 1.80 1.50 13.25
Bowbells 20.00 19.25 18.75 18.50 16.00 1.80 1.50 13.25
Mohall 20.00 19.25 18.75 18.50 16.00 1.80 1.50 13.25
Ryder 20.00 19.25 18.75 18.50 16.00 1.80 1.50 13.25
Niobe 19.90 19.15 18.65 18.40 15.90 1.70 1.40 13.15
Norma 20.00 19.25 18.75 18.50 16.00 1.80 1.50 13.25
Lignite 19.90 19.15 18.65 18.40 15.90 1.70 1.40 13.15
Velva 20.00 19.25 18.75 18.50 16.00 1.80 1.50 13.25

If it was the CWB that went Crying to MAMA Good start doing your job if you want to keep it. Thursdays PRO better see huge increases since you sold already most of OUR Grain.

Oh yea SCREW THE CWB

[stubblejumper]

Durum prices remain in the stratosphere
By MARK CONLON, Editor



If the fish aren't biting you change the bait. That's what the durum market is doing to try and entice producers to sell what remaining durum they have in their bins.

“The market is trying a new fishing lure to try and pull out what durum is available,” said Jim Peterson, marketing director for the North Dakota Wheat Commission. “But the bottom line is that there's just not a whole lot of durum out there.”

Minneapolis is paying approximately $19.25 per bushel for nearby durum, according to Peterson. “The record was $20 set in early October, and we're pushing that level again.”

Local cash prices vary with the lower producer bids around $17.30 in regions where durum isn't a big crop.

“In the areas that don't have a lot of base durum acres, the elevators can't be as aggressive as those in northwest North Dakota, for example, which is a larger durum growing area,” Peterson said.

The market was waiting for the Jan. 11 USDA supply and demand report for some “new news,” according to Peterson.

“The Dec. 1 stock levels (in the USDA report) confirm just how tight things are right now,” he added.

According to the USDA report, durum stocks in all positions in North Dakota totaled 17.4 million bushels. That's down 33 percent from a year ago and a record low since Dec. 1 stocks began in 1974. Also, on-farm stocks, at 12 million bushels, are down 37 percent from Dec. 1, 2006, while off-farm stocks totaled 5.40 million bushels - down 23 percent from a year ago.

The September-November total disappearance is 19.1 million bushels, up from 4.70 million bushels a year ago.

“The large disappearance shows strong demand even with these high prices,” Peterson said.

Other factors that continue to drive the market include export sales that as of Jan. 3 total 35.5 million bushels for the year. That compares with 22.8 million at this time last year - an increase of 56 percent.

“We'll see if that number is raised in future reports and what happens when the Great Lakes open,” Peterson said. “If we see another aggressive pace at that time, USDA may have to take the export projection to 38 million, although the pace has dropped off since early October.”

Of the 35.5 million in sales, 29 million have been shipped.

“There's not a lot of risk of a significant setback due to cancelations, but that six million bushel difference between sales and what is shipped is double that of last year and a higher percentage than other wheat classes,” he said.

Domestic buying is still robust as pasta manufacturers haven't been impacted by prices as much as one might have expected, according to Peterson.

“There are a lot of pasta companies that have coverage through February-March,” he said. “The millers have had a hard time convincing the pasta manufacturers that the forward prices for semolina for April-May may be even higher.”

That's because what little durum is still out there is in pretty tight hands. “The odds of increased producer selling is pretty slim at this time,” Peterson said. “(Producers) probably have a price expectation that has a ‘2' in front of it - as in $20-something.”

That tug of war between producers, millers and pasta manufacturers will probably continue into spring when farmers decide how many acres they will plant to durum.

“If domestic demand remains strong and exports continue, the market will likely have to go above $20 this spring to entice growers to plant durum,” Peterson said.

In other news, the Canadian Wheat Board has been a slow seller of their limited supplies and has been quoting $21/bushel at Thunder Bay, which is comparable to Duluth/Minneapolis prices.

From Aug. 1 to Nov. 30, Canada has shipped 40 million bushels, that's down 40 percent from last year at this time when they had shipped 66 million bushels. Canada had been projecting a decline of just 30 percent.

“Apparently there have been some transportation bottlenecks, but they're also trying to ration tighter supplies,” Peterson said. “Plus, (the CWB) is in a political battle with their producers.

“(The CWB) is projecting a #1 grade price to be $12.85 per bushel to its producers which, if attained, would be a record for Canadian producers,” Peterson said. “But the Canadian producers see our $19 a bushel and their missed opportunity to get that.”

In the near term the market will be watching the U.S. southwest durum crop as well as the outlook for spring planting in the north.

The winter wheat plantings report did show a large increase in U.S. desert durum acres, from 165,000 acres to 280,000 acres, which was right in line with estimates.

Peterson said an increase in durum acres is expected in both the U.S. and Canada, though it likely won't be as significant in the U.S. as it is north of the border.

Early projections estimate Canada will increase durum acres 35 percent - from 4.8 million acres to 6.5 million. If production comes in at 30 bushels per acre that could give Canada a 200 million bushel crop, compared to 130 million this year.

“Canada, like us, needs to rebuild stocks,” Peterson said. “But a 200 million bushel production estimate isn't as scary as it once was because of the low stocks situation.

“Weather, as always, will be a big factor, and the numbers will change many times over until spring planting is completed,” he added.

[FarmRanger]

“In other news, the Canadian Wheat Board has been a slow seller of their limited supplies and has been quoting $21/bushel at Thunder Bay, which is comparable to Duluth/Minneapolis prices.”

Something doesn’t add up here. We’re about ½ way through the year. The PRO for #1 durum is about 13 and it’s selling right now for about $20 and has been close to those levels for a couple months now. And supposedly they are a slow seller, which I’m assuming means that they should have at least half left to sell, halfway through the year? Was half of my durum already sold at $7 to make the PRO that price? The math sure makes it look that way.

I’d really like to see a detailed copy of this marketing plan that I’m forced to participate in.

[broker]

FYI, CWB buyback on 3AD is $20 a bushel.

[SASKFARMER3]

PRO today better be up by at least 121 a tonne or they are not in the game.