Canada Increasing Wheat Acreage?

[SASKFARMER3]

Every market report I have been reading lately from Off shore has the comments that wheat Acreage is going up next year in all countries so we should be OK for 08. Then they go on to say how Canada and Northern US are going to grow more Wheat. I emailed a few back and said maybe in USA but in Canada I am having a hard time believing that we will see a substantial increase in HRS wheat acreage as long as we have a CWB.
It seems the world believes that the current market conditions are going to see extra acreage in our country to help off set the disasters that happened the last few years. But with a CWB who sees the Current market conditions. They blew last crop year and are blowing the 08 crop by at least $2.50 a bushel or better and Durum don't get me started since #4 yesterday was selling for $17.00 Dumped in the pit freight off price.
Farmers will plant Durum I do believe that but unless their is some sign for HRS that shows we can achieve a excellent price most will stay with what they have been doing in the past and if it stays dry in the south our overall gift (CWB giving our preferred customers a preferred discount) to the world will be production similar to lower than 07-08 crop year.
Most farmers in our area aren't even talking about cleaning HRS. The other problem is Sawfly and Midge look at the latest maps wow draw a line from Rosetown to Weyburn and all above beware. Maybe its like India predicting their going to have a bumper crop with no rain. Just wondering. Wheat up .30 MGEX last night.
See I feel if the shortage we have right now was Oil or Gold or NG or Fert Glyphos etc. we would have 40.00 wheat but its food so we have $8.34 latest PRO CWB. Right!

[furrowtickler]

I agree SF, hrs will be luicky to stay unchanged at these levels. Still the lowest net return out of all crops in our area for 07 and looking the same for '08.

[bucket]

Here is the problem. When you look at other crops that will provide a reasonable return. They can be priced so a farmer can work the inputs back to make sense. The cwb does not recognize they could offer priced and profitable contracts. They also could tell their customers it is time to pay for the best grain in the world. But since they are bleeding heart liberals. More milling wheat in W Canada? Its the sleeper and because of the cwb it will continue to be. The acres won't increase because of their incompetence.

[mcfarms]

Saw an interesting thing last night when I was reading through the wheel and deal( dealer ads paper) that had come with the mail. In the Flamans ad I noticed the ad saying where the wishek breaking discs 08 factory run is completely sold out. An indication of some hay and grass going into grains? I would have to say yes based on what I'm hearing and seeing here.

[SASKFARMER3]

Sold out in the USA Canada they only bring in maybe one or two per store if lucky.
Wheat is not going to be the dominant crop here.

[furrowtickler]

One thing also puzzels me greatly, when the last two PRO's where announced the borg stated that one thing holding back wheat sales was the soaring ocean freights? Last I checked ocean freight rates are down some 50% from early Nov. The latest "raise" in the pro's just made me laugh, SF was right - $100/tn should not have been out of the question.

[bgmb]

wheat - 45*7-9= 315-405 BIG midge risk
canola - 35*12= 420 DRY in some areas
oats - 100*3= 300
barley- 70*??5.5??=??385??
flax- 22*14= 308

Wheat looks excellent to me but big concers about FPC basis and midge. I will be increasing wheat acres by 30-60% from last year at the expense of oats depending on what happens with barley.

I think wheat acres will rise 20% next year.

[charliep]

Chatter (market wise) at farm tech was canola, wheat and peas. Feed grains not on the radar except as needed for rotation.

[furrowtickler]

Seperate the wheat clases out. SWW, HWRS, CPS, Winter wheat. HRSW at this time is still the looser. "Wheat acres may well be up for '08 but not HRSW. This may change in the next pro or when the basis and FPC's are more clear on HRSW.

[bucket]

Let me clarify something. The CWB says Canada can't affect price in the world marketplace. With the current prices Canada could go back to huge acreages of wheat and the price would remain high. In proportion I don't think you will see big increases in wheat for the simple fact that a 25% delivery call, 50% of the value of what its worth(equals 12.5% of your money), or retarded basis levels doesn't equal cash flow. So thats why I don't see big acreage increase.

[stubblejumper]

50% call and you can get 90% for 7 or 8 cents a bushel

[SASKFARMER3]

Hey Bmg You manitoba guys just love the CWB, so in your area their dropping other crops and going wheat. Now on your farm are we like going from 100 acres of oats to wow 160 or 200 or is it none to 3000 plus. Does that mean Oats will be down. If so great with the US not even looking at oats and Canada dropping oats then the Crop to grow next year is Oats and Wait for $5.00 Oats. It will be their next fall.

[bgmb]

Have a couple more sask,
I'm sorry for not agreeing with you.

Yep we really love the CWB over here! haha winnipeg loves them maybe, more jobs for a second rate city.

If you spent less time complaining about the CWB and more time figureing out how to work within the system to the best of your advantage you would be way ahead of the game.

Example;
I rolled 20,000 bu of wheat from the 06-07 pool into the 07-08 pool. That looks like it will make me good money.
hopefully make up for getting screwed on the basis!

620ac of oats last year 0ac this year at least thats the plan right now.

I think you are right about oats the price is going to rise and it will end up being a good crop if you are willing to put it in a pile and sit on it into 2009.

[furrowtickler]

Oat acres in Man will go down also b/c of a higher than usual number of oats went in the ground last year b/c of pathetic returns and fusarium desiease in wheat. Oats will have to go to $4/bus just to get acres, although 5 would be nice but I am not drinkin in the tropics like SF.

[bucket]

stubblejumper - a 25% call and 50% of your money at combining = 12.5% of the value of your crop = no cashflow. You must be one of those rich farmers that hold on to your grain. Rod would be angry at you.