Leverage

[cottonpicken]

PRICE TIMES BUSHELS/ACRE=GROSS REVENUE

2x40=80
4x40=160
6x40=240
8x40=320
10x40=400
12x40=480
14x40=560
16x40=640
18x40=720
20x40=800

Welcome to your new reality.

[bucket]

I take your talking Wheat??

[TOM4CWB]

C.P.

Good luck getting $20/bu in the "designated area"!

Leverage... is the CWB failing to sell every last kernel of "designated area" wheat (@$600/t) and durum (@$930/t)... now...

Instead the CWB paying wheat growers $15/t to hold it for a year... while the customer can lock it in at a discount of $250/t for fall/winter 2008-09 delivery.

NOW that is leverage.

If the CWB comes out with a negative $20/t basis on CWRS... to MGE futures... that truly will be leverage.

THe CWB could make gobs of $$$ @ $30/t positive Basis on 08-09 FPC Basis.

Who here thinks it will be negative $20/t for PPO CWRS on the 08-09 FPC?

[bucket]

I have heard it will be a minus 30/tonne basis. I picked the 10.74 price which should have netted me 9.25 but thanks to the wealth distributing they still will take it back to 8 bucks. Incompetence at its finest.

[cottonpicken]

The glass isnt half empty,nor half full,its bloody well overflowing.

Just because you dont believe it doesnt mean it isnt true.

[charliep]

Are you suggesting getting long wheat? What month? Would you put a spread on the inverses (assumption new crop unvalued relative to old)? What months?

If were the CWB and had to manage risk on the producer options, where would you set basis levels on February 25?
Would you see the glass as half full/half empty or over flowing? A note from history is that CWB fixed price basis levels tend to get weaker in rising markets and stronger in falling markets. Asking because these were the questions Neil Blue (presenter wheat outlook) and I were getting asked at Farm Tech.

[cottonpicken]

I'm going to change my handle to brokenrecord because i've been saying the same thing for so damn long.

Now things turned out just like i said they would and i still have to defend myself.

Even if we have peaked and correct some and then sideways trade,were lovin it.

10 dollar peas
16 dollar flax
14 dollar spring wheat
12 dollar canola
20 dollar brownmustard
25 dollar yellowmustard
22 dollar durum
11 dollar canary
17 dollar lentil

Get pasted the cwb for one second and take a peak at reality.

"first they ignore you,then they laugh at you,then they fight you,then you win"

Gandhi

[charliep]

You must be a market analyst. Our claim to fame is never mentioning price and timing in the same sentence. What time frame would these forecast apply to? Fall? Summer? Old crop? New crop? What are the assumptions are you making on the fundamentals? Technical? How much risk would you take on these positions or are you thoughts/forecasts 100 % guaranteed?

More important, what would you do with this information? Would you recommend a client just get long? How would you handle risk if you were a grain company or the CWB? A wheat miller or baker? A feedlot?

[cottonpicken]

I should send you a bill for this.LOL.

fundementals first,technicals second.

spring wheat-sell
durum-sell
flax-hold
peas-hold
lentils-buy
canola-buy
canary-buy
mustards-hold
malt barley-buy
feed barley-hold
oats-buy

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE DUE YOUR OWN DAMN DUE DILIGENCE(NIADYODDD)

Tell the feedlots,millers,bakers to kiss their asses good bye.Their about to be squeezed from both ends.

The "farmer",or the ones that are left,have already faced their demons.
We got lean and mean.
We took on more land.
Drove our costs into the ground.
Worked ridicoulous hours.
Took second jobs.
Forgot about vacations and other perks.
Took on debt.
Learned a million skills to save a dime.
Kept saying next year.


So what did all this do?What did all this pain accomplish?Think of a prize fighter.If he gets fat all day on subsidies and easy hours will he be ready to fight someone whos took a pounding for thirty years.

We have created the greatest agriculture powerhouse the world has ever seen.

We will crucify our competion.

As long as the government doesnt screw us!LOL!

[IAMTHEMOLE]

Is cottonpicken really Charlie Pearson' s alter ego. Is CP real or is it Charlie Pearson saying what he really thinks and not what Alberta Ag Charlie has to say to be responsible?

[charliep]

Thanks Cottonpicken. I always appreciate your thoughts and contribution to discussion.

To IAMTHEMOLE. I don't think we're Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde but won't 100 % guarantee On the hand, it could be alzheimer's disease at my age.

[furrowtickler]

I will get past the CWB when we achieve your $14/bus wheat, everything else is or will be obtainable.

[mcfarms]

Thats it it was so obvious, CP =Charlie Pearson, it's kinda like Clark Kent when he has glasses on and nobody realises he's superman.(lol)

[parsley]

charliep,

I'll be at the Sheraton the 13th for the WBGA. Which do I look for...CP or charliep? lol

Which one in the email? lol

Parsley

[mcfarms]

He'll be the one wearing the cape on the waterslide parsley