Things to follow this week

[charliep]

What factors will you be following this week and what strategies come out of these?

Wheat will be top of my list. Changes in the inverse/spreads between contract months as well as the three markets continue to be of major interest.

Will also be following the corn/soybean acreage battle as being played out in the futures market. Will also be following the acreage battle closer to home. The comment from farm tech is most will stick with proven rotation. The 10 to 20 % (or whatever the number) of optional/decision acres will be interesting.

[food4u]

Very interesting--- have 200 acres that was chem fallowed last year and having lots of fun trying to decide what to seed it to....

[bucket]

The cwb has not issued their asking prices for a while. I am getting concerned they are in a real pickle. The call is only at 50%, the pro's not going up fast enough to reflect the value of the grain still in the bin.
It may not be this week but I think s*** is going to hit the fan sometime soon.

[charliep]

Might add feed barley on as well from two perspectives.

View 1 With May corn at $5.20 ish/bu and an 80 cent basis, track southern Alberta US corn is close to $6/bu (about $240/tonne). Feed barley AGC numbers last week (Lethbridge) were $200 to $215/tonne (spot) which means barley should be going back into rations. April May not widely traded but should be in the $230 to $235 range lethbridge. Implications are that barley should be moving back into rations. From there the questions are for April forward and the impact on barley prices/where cattle are fed.

View 2 Saudi business. As indicated, they buy 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes every month. There is usually some other North Africa/Middle east business as well. Indications are that these customers are switching some feed grain needs to corn (not sure quantity) but they are likely to be in the market this spring. CWB quoted Portand feed barley price (available every week western producer) remain in the $295 to $300/tonne range. Will be watching for a combination of the following market signals: an announcement for a CWB guaranteed delivery contract, an increase in the Portland feed barley prices and/or you guys (farmers) getting offered premiums over CWB initials, no cost EPOs, etc.