Stunning!

[cottonpicken]

It took crude ruffly 21 months to go from 31ish to 70ish.

Spring wheat in 10 months has gone from 4.80 to 14.63.

This is STUNNING!

Rational has left the market and fear has taken over.

Something behind the scenes is happening.

[boarderbloke]

do you think it's more than dry weather in south america, they were talking alot about that today. maybe the numbers coming out tomorrow? maybe global stocks are dropping quicker than anticipated?

[furrowtickler]

Yea, the cwb sold the only remaining supplies for under $10/bus - there is no wheat left! Cotton, would in not be nice to sell or pre sell at those levels - oh what a feeling! What is your stratagy with board grains? I will admit you pedicted something almost no one here agreed to, so what do we do with cuurent/08 malt or durum or hrs? You keep showing prices that are unavailable to all in Western Canada. You make a weak case for the cwb at best - unless you prove me wrong.
I just have a hard time believing that we are going to "average" out even within a mile difference this year with board grain returns. Every other commodity we can capitalise on at this time. At this point in time getting just over $4 for malt barley and $6 for hrsw is making me sick when we see what is going on around us. You know that.
Btw, canola hit $13 today - spot, that part of the farm is great! That is not some far off price that someone else is getting - it is here today in my/your pocket. And yeah we sold some good or bad.
The $8 hws wheat we are told we will get is pathetic giving what is going on everywhere else right now, jmo.
Sorry for the rant, but I can not beleive what is going on.

[LWeber]

Cash prices for bids in Portland were up 1.70 this afternoon to $17.05 a bushel. That is from the greedy multi-nationals who also have their margin built in. Cash delivered - in the pit.

Basis watchers out there - thats a $99.95 positive basis over the close.

$1.70 cash climb is better than 5 straight days at limit up in MGEX March.

I'll bow down if your HRS wheat hits $20.00 in Portland CP even though your happy with what is it now $8.00 or so on the PRO with the CWB's premium marketing.

[TOM4CWB]

LWeber,

The CWB gets 100% of this... off our PPO contracted grain.

Does anyone understand the basis calculation on CWB FPC?

I always thought it was somewhat related to nearby basis levels... it certainly appeared to be in line with them... till after August 2007.

Why don't we have a basis pool... and take the average for the year? Would that not be fair?

The CWB must resolve this issue... or it will destroy them.

[cottonpicken]

I'm pretty far from a board supporter.

I have said quite a few times that NOBODY should be forced to do anything.

And i have also said the "theory" of a monopoly is sound.

I would say i'm suffering as much or more because i've been holding back some grain since 04(as much as i could afford).And 40% of my acres this year were DURUM!I'm also 33,by myself,and up to my eyeballs in debt.And North Dakota is a short trip away.

If i could call some super-b's and pull into bottineau n.d i would have No more problems.I'd be on the first plane to mexico to go drinkin with saskfarmer and then i'd hop back on a plane to calgary to do some kayakin.

So please dont call me HAPPY.

And i really dont know how to play the board grains right now.Tom and Charlie know more about this than i do.

Sorry for the rant.

I'm just stunned at how fast things are playing out.
My original feelings were that the grains simply had to move because of the oil and gold markets.

But were kickin the crap out of them and everything else.We look more like the uranium market than anything.

That cash bid info is Amazing.

I will bet dimes to donuts that there are alot of men sitting around computers tonight,farmers,hedge fund managers,analysts,day traders,brokers,me,you,bankers,bakers,governments and parsley.
They will all be thinking the same thing.

WHAT THE F#CK IS GOING ON

[TOM4CWB]

C.P.,

There are hundreds of progressive grain growers who have been caught in the same box as you...

I dare say IF the CWB had not LOCKED up our grain supplies in the "designated area"... we would be back at $9-10/bu...

There is close to $1b of value in inventory... that we will loose... if the CWB does not unlock the pantry.

Add it up...

We pay the inventory loss on 1.1mmt of Durum, and 3.3mmt of HRS.

A drop in value of $250-350/t is clearly included in the carry.

And the trucks could easily do EXACTLY as you say C.P., without even breaking a sweat.

The U.S. growers can empty their bins out... BECAUSE the CWB is the reserve to take them through... at minimal cost... IF they happen to run out.

CDN "Designated area" growers are the reserve holders of human consumption grains ... for the global reserve. At no cost... what a fine bunch we are.

And what thanks will we get... ?

When prices drop????....

Our grain... in the "designated area"; will be the first to plummet... with the biggest price drop... because we will have the largest stocks on hand!

IT is all about LEVERAGE... and "designated area" growers have none. The 'single desk' lever is broken... only a fool would not realise this fact.

Vader... you and Agstar77 are unbelievable.

Blame everyone but your selves for our mess...

[bucket]

A guy does his due dilengence, Sweats over paying the bills and the incompetent shitheads in Winnipeg say they we are doing great. I wonder if they would like the billions they have lost us protecting their jobs coming out of their salary.

It is not good enough any more.

The peasants will revolt.

[dalek]

And if you guys took half the effort you spend talking about it on the internet and in the coffee shops, and spent it on concrete ACTION, you'd be selling your wheat to whomever you want today.

[cottonpicken]

Not likely.

The real wealth of the west has always been used to prop up the fake wealth of the east.

[bucket]

dalek - yeah your probably right. Although I did vote conservative to get rid of this problem. I have found they have no balls to get the job done.

Obviously the next step is for the peasants to revolt.

Start by telling your conservative MP that you are just going to pretend to vote for them for since they think pretending to get rid of the wheat board solves the problem.(wise words from jc at red deer)

[dalek]

MPs don't care what you say you're going to do. They only react when you make it more inconvenient for them not to react.

[TOM4CWB]

C.P.,

DaleK is right.

If we had half the boldness/intelligence of eastern farmers... the CWB "single desk" would have been gone after the first Directors election in 1998.

Goodale tricked us into the belief that the tooth fairy (single desk) will look after us and leave a loonie under our pillow (the pool)... if we have believe it will be so.

Only hard work, integrity, discipline, trust, and wise decisions create prosperity...

The CWB simply does not respect (the CWB short cut is fine) the people who they are supposed to serve.

We will not earn premium price... if we insist on being residual suppliers... that are intent on abuse of the folks who we are supposed to serve.

The CWB messes up both ends of the value chain... all the while thinking they are heros.

[freewheat]

The CWB is to me what is stunning. They are sitting on our 8 dollar wheat (at some point in decmber we may get our money) like never before, while america cleans out its bins for 14 bucks.