Who needs the CWB?

[rbgordon]

With many non board crops looking very promising for the coming crop year it would seem to make a lot of sense to grow them and avoid planting CWB marketed crops of wheat and malt barley. Almost without exception, canola, flax, peas, lentils, oats and feed barley will show a better per acre return than CWB marketed grains. And additionally you can expect 100% payment on delivery, wheras CWB grain can take up to 16 months for complete payment.
On our operation, which is not large by todays standards, we have 3 permit books for the current crop year none of which have been applied for, and have no intenetion of doing so. No board crops will be grown in 2008.
Let all the lefties huddle under the leaky CWB tent and be content in knowing that they all got the same low average price.

CWB volumes of grain handled continues to decline every year, they are dying a slow natural death.

Regards
Blueboy

[bucket]

No one needs the CWB. If you can price your own peas, canola,flax etc wheat can't be much harder. These people are so incompetent at what they do it makes me sick. The cwb has made western canada's farmers look like a bunch of buffoons waiting for a gov't handout. And with the amount of money we've lost this year, because of the cwb, the gov't shouldn't feel bad about us asking for some infill money.

We pay for market analysts that lose us money. We pay for a board of directors that believe they should re-distribute wealth instead of coming up with program that extracts guaranteed market premiums.

They gotta go. Its costing my farm to much money.

[bsigg]

Yeah I always sell when the market peaks. I can see into the future and I never sell too soon or too late. It’s great being a master strategist. Too bad you guys aren't as good as me.

[TOM4CWB]

bsigg,

For those with enough forsight, the real need to maximise returns... what is wrong with that opportunity... to pay down loans and supply a market begging for their produce?

It seems like CWB 'single desk' proponents... would rather keep our grain in the bin... than allow growers to sell at a fair price.

Australia has resolved this problem... as has Ontario... and guess what...

WORLD PRICES have responded. THEY are UP... not DOWN.

By treating growers like fools.. with no brains... too stupid to know when a fair price is staring them in the face... the CWB is nailing the lid on their own coffin.

[chaffmeister]

bsigg:

The average price of malt barley in Montana over the last 8 years is 79 cents a bu HIGHER than the CWB average over the same time.

This is not talking about picking the top - how about getting something close to THE AVERAGE of what the open market is getting in Montana?

Here's another - the CWB says you need the single desk to protect the malt premium (over feed barley).
Average Montana malt premium = $1.23/bu
Average CWB malt premium = $0.46/bu

If you had a choice, which would you pick?

[skhadenuf]

Just wondering if there is anyone here that could post past year performance of the board final prices for years past as compared to what could have been recieved without the board? It's good to see the posts about the current ripoff happenning to us now, although every time I see the difference between the board and not, makes me totally sick, especially with so many farms that are trying to hang on to get the next crop and take advantage of better returns, compared to the past, especially when world prices are there staring you in the face but no access to it. The amount of interest some farms are paying to pay debt accumulated in the bad crop years eats up the late payments coming from board, there is a cost there that I think everyone is not giving as much attention as it deserves.

[chaffmeister]

I've got it for malt barley going back a few years. Montana annual averages vs Alberta CWB finals (all in CD/t). Montana wins every time.

2000/01
MT......$194.51
CWB.....$146.01
diff....$48.50

2001/02
MT......$204.80
CWB.....$155.74
diff....$49.06

2002/03
MT......$215.15
CWB.....$184.59
diff....$30.56

2003/04
MT......$170.72
CWB.....$151.44
diff....$19.28

2004/05
MT......$142.24
CWB.....$124.07
diff....$18.17

2005/06
MT......$133.50
CWB.....$110.50
diff....$23.00

2006/07
MT......$188.64
CWB.....$141.44
diff....$47.20

2007/08 (so far)
MT......$279.83
CWB.....$224.69 (PRO)
diff....$55.14

[bucket]

I wonder if any of the rocket scientists that do studies have ever done a study on the following.

The impact to farmers not being able to deliver a full contract of wheat or durum. In order to make the payments they sell other crops at lower prices.

If we would of had the two interims on durum back in september and been able to deliver the full contract can you imagine where canola and peas and flax would have had to be bid at to get the product.

Food for thought.

[parsley]

chaff, these comparisons are so revealing.

[chaffmeister]

bucket:
I'm no rocket scientist but I've done the analysis you ask about.

About half the canola crop is delivered by Dec 31 each year. This overwhelms the grain handling system with canola stocks and prices drop in order to clear the excess to price sensitive markets like China and Mexico.

The reason for this excessive delivery of canola early in the year is cash flow. Something you don't get from CWB grains.

I'm not an economist but I know there is no doubt a sophisticated model to measure this. I took a simpler approach. Price pushed down by $20 to $30 a tonne on 4.5 mmt adds up to about $90 to $135 million.

I just considered basis weakness. If you considered total flat price (canola prices are seasonally lowest around harvest), the hit gets much bigger.

I always consider this when I think of the cost of the CWB system.

[chaffmeister]

bucket:
I'm no rocket scientist but I've done the analysis you ask about.

About half the canola crop is delivered by Dec 31 each year. This overwhelms the grain handling system with canola stocks and prices drop in order to clear the excess to price sensitive markets like China and Mexico.

The reason for this excessive delivery of canola early in the year is cash flow. Something you don't get from CWB grains.

I'm not an economist but I know there is no doubt a sophisticated model to measure this. I took a simpler approach. Price pushed down by $20 to $30 a tonne on 4.5 mmt adds up to about $90 to $135 million.

I just considered basis weakness. If you considered total flat price (canola prices are seasonally lowest around harvest), the hit gets much bigger.

I always consider this when I think of the cost of the CWB system.

[chaffmeister]

bucket:
I'm no rocket scientist but I've done the analysis you ask about.

About half the canola crop is delivered by Dec 31 each year. This overwhelms the grain handling system with canola stocks and prices drop in order to clear the excess to price sensitive markets like China and Mexico.

The reason for this excessive delivery of canola early in the year is cash flow. Something you don't get from CWB grains.

I'm not an economist but I know there is no doubt a sophisticated model to measure this. I took a simpler approach. Price pushed down by $20 to $30 a tonne on 4.5 mmt adds up to about $90 to $135 million.

I just considered basis weakness. If you considered total flat price (canola prices are seasonally lowest around harvest), the hit gets much bigger.

I always consider this when I think of the cost of the CWB system.

[bucket]

And that is on just one commodity. Pretty safe to say billions have or will be lost.

[stubblejumper]

wouldn't the same happen to wheat if everyone tried to market all before DEC.

[bucket]

Maybe but basis levels would discourage delivery if they didn't need it. Then the other crops would move.

Its about knowing what is the best thing to deliver at the right time or what works for an individuals farm.

The cwb currently knows there are farmers who don't start hauling wheat until June. They just have to re allocate the deliveries with a simpler program.