Game

[agstar77]

For all you smart "I Know better than anyone else how to market my grain people ". If you were in charge of a large pool of canola , would you sell it all now at 13 or hold for a higher price or a lower price. Put you best shot up and we will come back in 3 mos. to see how you did. I expect only CP to be right. Just for interest I am selling now.

[kryger]

If I was in charge of the CCB(Canadian Canola Board), I would have sold a long time ago. I have to protect my good customers. But I am a know nothing farmer, so I would hold for a bit longer. Brazil and Argentina drying out.

Canola out of Killam, AB yesterday, $13.92 for July. Sell in July, and if need cash now, take advance. Difference is just about .90 cents.

[charliep]

Interesting challenge on canola.

A question back is how much of a drag factor is wheat that was carried over from the 2006/07 crop year (either in bins or a storage ticket) and priced into the current pool. Why hasn't the CWB developed programs over time to deal with the impact of wheat carried between crop years (cash pricing at the end of a crop year, multiple pooling years, etc)?

From your question, I suspect the average markets their grain a lot like the CWB. Sold some off the combine at $8/bu (contracted in the spring), sold more at $10/bu, is selling today at $13/bu and will be holding some into the summer. The difference is who controlls the delivery pattern/access to market and whether the farmer or the CWB conrols pricing.

On the control of pricing, will note the following quote from the CWB mid pool report:

CWB Producer Payment Options (PPOs) continue to grow in popularity among farmers, the report states. As of mid-November 2007, the number of producers using Fixed Price, Basis Payment or Daily Price contracts or the Early Payment Option had reached a record 22,938. The grain committed under a PPO comprised about 24 per cent of total production.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/newsroom/releases/2008/011608.jsp

Highlight - Farmers want control of pricing decisions.

[boarderbloke]

charliep, am i reading this right, the last paragraph is suggesting that 75% of board grain, being delivered so far is straight to pool ??? and that also excludes EPOs

[kryger]

Let us do the same thing on Wheat, Agstar. I have March, May and July basis contracts on HRS Wheat.

Right now I am ahead of you by about $3 a bushel. And if I sell those contracts today, I would get my money upfront for what has been delivered. That money can be used to run my farm today, not some magical figure 10 months from now, or are the prices derived from the dartboard method.

Of course, this game would run longer than your Canola game of 3 months. This game would have to run 11 months, I could be dead by then.

[agstar77]

So why not sell K?

[charliep]

boarderbloke

Good questions. From this quote (The grain committed under a PPO comprised about 24 per cent of total production.) I would assume 24 % of 18.4 MMT produced in western Canada or about 4.5 MMT. I read this as including the EPO as well. Will have to ask CWB.

[TOM4CWB]

Agstar77,

Are you pooling the 08 crop, or what is left of the 07 crop?

Every grower will have a different reason for selling... when they sell... which is totally valid for them!

What is wrong with personal decisions... that are arrived at without a herd mentality?

If I sold at Canola @ $10/bu... and bought the futures back... what is that to you? Why should it matter?

If I sell new crop canola... @ $14/bu... why should I be herded into your pool... and forced to be part of a pool that can never work... just like a herd of Caribou... 1,000,000 going over one spot... over one day... destroys everything anywhere near them.

10 Caribou traveling together... does not destroy the environment... and provides a measure of safety.

Agstar77... the massive 'single desk' pool plan can only bring long run disaster... please rethink your marketing strategy!

Allowing humans to be human is not optional... it is an obligation to humanity!

AND IT IS CERTAINLY not A GAME!

[agstar77]

Take it easy T4, watch your blood pressure. I just thought I could get your valued opinion on selling canola at 13 in the cash market.

[gregpet]

Agstar77 why will you not acknowledge or respond to any of the questions that have been posed? What are you afraid of? Let me guess, you still won't answer them.

[TOM4CWB]

Agstar77,

If your customer needs it, and you can make a good return for your family... build your community... why exactly wouldn't you sell?

Why would you need to ask me?

Why should it be any of my business?

Do you get a special high... by controling my farm, family, and community?

[mcfarms]

I've got a better idea Agstar give me your Canola and I'll sell it when I think the times right or a customer comes and gives me an offer I feel is at a premium over the current market. Of course you will have to live with my decisions, and you can have no input into when I sell or who too. Hows that sound?

[kryger]

Sell my Wheat basis contracts now? Wheat still going ballistic, up $.30 again today.

Ahead of you by $3.25/bushel. Still behind the world prices by $3.00/bushel because of CWB tookage

[Fransisco]

When all is said and done it is your decision agstar. It is your grain, it is your money, it is your risk and that is why ultimately it is your decision.

Are you happy with this price? Does it make you a profit? How much of a gambler are you? Do you need the money? All these questions and more play into the decision.

What is right for you at this point in time is different from what is right for someone else right now.

Nobody knows how to pick the top of any market which is what you are asking. But I do know this you don't even have to come close to picking a top to beat the CWB.

[cottonpicken]

My guesstimate is 774 but hopefully it hits 874 by april 17.