Ag Day G Wilhemi

[agstar77]

We are out of Wheat in U.S.!! Tenders going unfilled. Never happened before! Japan Tender not filled! No idea how high the price will go. Read my lips" The Bins Are Empty"

[cottonpicken]

Can you give more details?
Is he a speaker?

[charliep]

A recent market outlook call I participated in reminded me of the concept of hoarding. They used Jordan as an example where they have increased their wheat on storage to 6 months supply. Implication. It isn't the fact that the market has run out of supplies (granted extremely tight) but rather no one will sell in a market like this and there are a number of just in time buyers (including Japan).

Hopefully the CWB is using this opportunity to sell to Japan and increase market share. A relationship buyer like Japan will remember when Canada looked after their needs in a time of crisis. Having said that, the CWB should be negotiating prices including hefty carry all the way to next October. Canada does have the supplies. Now if there was only a way to reward farmers over and above the miserly $15/tonne storage fee on the (http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/contracts/wsp/). I am talking about with the current single desk.

[WheatKing08]

www.agday.com he's probably one of the most informative speakers to listen to.

To all you board bashers aren't we lucky to have the CWB that will sell our grain our behalf and get us these high prices,when in a open market we would have sold all of our wheat at a lower price.We will be getting bigger adjustment payments and a final that was more than the initial.

[agstar77]

Other comments included 16 million in deliverable positions with 39 m bus in open interest. Thus the squeeze play. Report of one exporter, not a farmer, hoping to get 19 versus 17 that they had originally hoped for on a loaded cargo ship. We are still in a bull market for wheat and soybeans. The U.S. may be forced to try to import soybeans. None of the large grain companies will allow producers to lock in a futures price, only basis. If you want to guaratee a price buy puts and calls. Price for options on A CORN FARM ABOUT 100 AN ACRE.

[charliep]

On the last comment, why would farmers sell wheat differently than canola? My experience is that most farmers have run a pretty disciplined canola marketing plan with an end result not much different than the pooled CWB payment process (difference being they got paid 100 % on delivery and had control over their pricing decisions). I also have seen graphs that show the use of CWB producer pricing options to date - way up from previous years in smaller pool size year.

Don't know from the last comment if you are pro change or single desk but I have to repeat the question as to how much of a drag factor wheat carried from the 2006/07 crop year is on current prices. Why is the CWB still using 12 month pooling periods?

[boarderbloke]

comments from above, "None of the grain companies will allow producers to lock in a futures price." this is very scary if true, things could get ugly, very ugly. that is not open and free marketing, but i could see grain companies not wanting to past up these profits

[agstar77]

The comment on future price comes from Jerry Gulke, an analyst who ACTUALLY FARMS . He also stated that corn seed was being returned and soybean seed was in short supply. Fetilizer at 700 a ton.

[dalek]

Sold a bit more 2009 and 2010 wheat just now, as well as some 2008, 2009 and 2010 soybeans (small amount, maybe 7-8% of expected crop)

[tower]

there are a lot of reasons why prices are headed back up and some indicate that they may stay at least for a few years. let's hope and pray that Canadian farmers are able to make some progress, and have traditional yields.

[northfarmer]

wheatking, do know of some pro numbers that we do not? i priced dpc at $5 over pro the other day, without the bull*&^% PPO(pool potection option) would have been at least a couple of dollars more......

I have not moved one bushel of my CWRS, i have thousands of tonnes....our bins are far from empty, but this grain was contracted on the a series, it is open, but no shipping!!!!!!

I have a good chunk of my free amrekt canola unpriced, did not sell it all at 10 bucks...just pray some day i could market my wheat the same way....

go form a volunteer collective if that is what you desire, free my wheat and barley so i can do as i please!!!!

go Ritz go!, not just barley, give us wheat freedom too

[cottonpicken]

What a great day.

I desided to count my chickens.

My family and friends no longer consider me crazy for hoarding grain and saying things like 20 dollar wheat.

[charliep]

Congratulations Cottonpicken

CWB asking prices in Vancouver today $21/bu.

See the following link (2/3 of the way down).

http://www.agric.gov.ab.ca/economic/stats/wkgrain.html

[LWeber]

I'll save my congrats Cotton until a real $20.00 bid appears (it will) - not an asking price set above the Portland price. No reason DNS doesn't go as high as Durum at $23.50.

http://newcentag.com/

DNS 15.0 at a farmer owned elevator is bid $18.50 in Fortuna, North Dakota. Cash in Portland is trading a little higher. Thats a real bid - u can sell it - get a cheque and touch it. Asking price is like us cowboys phoning and asking Angelina Jolie out. Business doesn't get booked at the asking price. Boinking Angelina ... asking price ...the probability of either is the same.

Psst ...Agstar - pick up the phone and call them - they bot DNS all week from empty bins. It was SWS that went unfilled in the Japanese tender.

Some U.S. co's have gone no bid on DNS - too much of a drain on finances keeping hedges on. Risk is greater than the handling reward.

Long time until new crop is off in North America. The wheat crop in TX is in deep. Wheat in OK is not fit for grazing. A 3-5 inch rain could still salvage it and given the weird weather - don't rule it out.

On a brighter note - Flax is trading 17.50 this afternoon and red lentils are trading 35 cents FOB. Yellows have traded track equiv of $11.00 to the farm; but there are sales to fill at $10.50 before you see an $11.00 bid.

Graphed pulses today from Dec - Feb versus canola/wheat increase. They either step up to the plate or they won't be in the drills at these levels.

I pray that you guys see $10.00 for your old crop wheat and have the opp to lock in $10 for new crop.

Thats not asking for much given these world levels - is it Agstar?

[parsley]

Glad to see you had enough starch in your collar to keep you sitting up straight ahead, while sticking to your decision cotton. Congrats.

On another note:
Just had an e-mail from a farmer in Autralia, and just got home from attending their grains council meeting in Adelaide, and he says, "the single desk has finally been buried"

Amen.