Ag Day G Wilhemi

[agstar77]

We are out of Wheat in U.S.!! Tenders going unfilled. Never happened before! Japan Tender not filled! No idea how high the price will go. Read my lips" The Bins Are Empty"

[cottonpicken]

Can you give more details?
Is he a speaker?

[charliep]

A recent market outlook call I participated in reminded me of the concept of hoarding. They used Jordan as an example where they have increased their wheat on storage to 6 months supply. Implication. It isn't the fact that the market has run out of supplies (granted extremely tight) but rather no one will sell in a market like this and there are a number of just in time buyers (including Japan).

Hopefully the CWB is using this opportunity to sell to Japan and increase market share. A relationship buyer like Japan will remember when Canada looked after their needs in a time of crisis. Having said that, the CWB should be negotiating prices including hefty carry all the way to next October. Canada does have the supplies. Now if there was only a way to reward farmers over and above the miserly $15/tonne storage fee on the (http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/contracts/wsp/). I am talking about with the current single desk.

[WheatKing08]

www.agday.com he's probably one of the most informative speakers to listen to.

To all you board bashers aren't we lucky to have the CWB that will sell our grain our behalf and get us these high prices,when in a open market we would have sold all of our wheat at a lower price.We will be getting bigger adjustment payments and a final that was more than the initial.

[agstar77]

Other comments included 16 million in deliverable positions with 39 m bus in open interest. Thus the squeeze play. Report of one exporter, not a farmer, hoping to get 19 versus 17 that they had originally hoped for on a loaded cargo ship. We are still in a bull market for wheat and soybeans. The U.S. may be forced to try to import soybeans. None of the large grain companies will allow producers to lock in a futures price, only basis. If you want to guaratee a price buy puts and calls. Price for options on A CORN FARM ABOUT 100 AN ACRE.

[charliep]

On the last comment, why would farmers sell wheat differently than canola? My experience is that most farmers have run a pretty disciplined canola marketing plan with an end result not much different than the pooled CWB payment process (difference being they got paid 100 % on delivery and had control over their pricing decisions). I also have seen graphs that show the use of CWB producer pricing options to date - way up from previous years in smaller pool size year.

Don't know from the last comment if you are pro change or single desk but I have to repeat the question as to how much of a drag factor wheat carried from the 2006/07 crop year is on current prices. Why is the CWB still using 12 month pooling periods?

[boarderbloke]

comments from above, "None of the grain companies will allow producers to lock in a futures price." this is very scary if true, things could get ugly, very ugly. that is not open and free marketing, but i could see grain companies not wanting to past up these profits

[agstar77]

The comment on future price comes from Jerry Gulke, an analyst who ACTUALLY FARMS . He also stated that corn seed was being returned and soybean seed was in short supply. Fetilizer at 700 a ton.

[dalek]

Sold a bit more 2009 and 2010 wheat just now, as well as some 2008, 2009 and 2010 soybeans (small amount, maybe 7-8% of expected crop)

[tower]

there are a lot of reasons why prices are headed back up and some indicate that they may stay at least for a few years. let's hope and pray that Canadian farmers are able to make some progress, and have traditional yields.