Are there any commodity Bears out there

[just_wondering]

As a Farmer I am predisposed to being a grains and oilseed Bull.
But I did an interview today, and when the general public starts to say Grain prices are at highest ever level, and that buying land in Saskatchewan is a good idea I get a little nervous.
Are there any well read or respected analysts or opinion makers out there who say sell now?

[freewheat]

None of the "experts" I have heard are bearish, and that makes me nervous. Last time canola was double digits, there was no way it could drop from 10 bucks. In three months we all sold it for 7. Who knows?
They also make it sound like buying land in saskatchewan is like going to a store to buy milk. Land just is not always that available. And when it is the land barons in my area do crooked dealings. I am not a crook so I get left behind.

[cottonpicken]

Is this a joke?

[Vader]

What's the freight from Saskatchewan to Idaho?

[wmoebis]

Does the crow fly south?

Oh yea!
Some people pushed to KILL the crow.

[LWeber]

About the same as Edenwold to Ottawa plus minus a few fundraisers.

[tower]

I'm not particularily bearish. I think that this marks the spot where a lot of changes are going to occur in Agriculture. Even with the amount of land that can be put back into grains, and even with the low livestock prices.
I think there is just way too much money to be made off the backs of farmers for this kind of rally to die very quickly. Consumer food dollars are hardly the thing that is stretching our budgets.

If farmers want to make the most of this it is a good time for us to stick together, Buy through what co-ops we have left and send clear messages to the multinationals that we've had it with not getting enough to survive. It is time to quit being all agog about prices that don't even yet get back to an inflation adjusted 1970s price. Input costs will wreck anyone who thinks this is the big bonanza.

[mcfarms]

Rail or truck? Truck from here around 34.-38.00 But lets say 45 bucks or a dollar a bushel to give us lots of room. I would have to get a for sure quote Monday from our trucker. At a dollar a bushel the return back to my at 16-17 a hundredweight would be around that 7 a bushel. Would likely look at producer cars if it was going to Idaho Falls.

Right now the only number I've heard from anyone associated with the cash plus was Director Obergs 5 plus.
I am waiting to see the initial Cash Plus offers which I am assuming will come out at grain world .

[tower]

I'm not particularily bearish. I think that this marks the spot where a lot of changes are going to occur in Agriculture. Even with the amount of land that can be put back into grains, and even with the low livestock prices.
I think there is just way too much money to be made off the backs of farmers for this kind of rally to die very quickly. Our food dollars as Consumer are hardly the thing that is stretching our budgets.

If farmers want to make the most of this it is a good time for us to stick together, Buy through what co-ops we have left and send clear messages to the multinationals that we've had it with not getting enough to survive. It is time to quit being all agog about prices that don't even yet get back to an inflation adjusted 1970s price. Input costs will wreck anyone who thinks this is the big bonanza.

[hoppsing]

I hear that BARI-Canada is out there with CashPlus at $6.00-6.30/bu for six row and $6.20-6.80/bu for two row (the higher values near the U.S border) and that several grain handlers may be out next week. This seems to be a very good, innovative program which is sending clear price signals to farmers. It would seem that the WBGA press release this week, saying CashPlus is dead, was completely inacccurate (but that wouldn't be the first time!)

[Lifer]

What's the freight from Idaho to Saskatchewan? Maybe the price should be higher in Saskatchewan.

[northfarmer]

hoppsing...are you a troll on here thats works for the cwb, or are you an acutal barley grower?

[chaffmeister]

Prices in Montana have softened a bit because they're getting the acres they needed. From highs of 17.00/cwt I'm now hearing 14.00/cwt.

I heard A-B is out with a price around 6.80 - 7.00/bu in Alberta. Works back to FOB Vancouver at about 8.00/bu to 8.20/bu. Compare that to the EU prices at about 10.00/bu. I'm sure A-B paid the CWB much more than 8.20 basis Vancouver.

So 7.00 is a great price. but wouldn't 8.00 be better?

[hoppsing]

The back quarter last year (in S.E. Sask) was a beautiful Metcalfe crop in June but got zapped by the heat in July. It would be nice if we could put away the philosophical blinders in these discussions. Actually, I'm just online looking for a truck.

[hoppsing]

hoppsing
man where are you hearing these rumors? must be from with in the CWB, as once again they are keeping the price down!
Need to up date your sources Hoppsing, it might be BARI there, yet hear its A Bucsh here, and its $7 at the bin!! go figure eh!!!
When you blackmail some one or some industry sooner or later some one has to crack. Its called business, if a maltster has cracked so be it. They need barley, nothing but barley. Their customers need malt, and if they can't get it from a maltster here then they will go elsewhere, possibly never coming back to this maltster again. Its called wanting security of supply.
Hoppsing - how would you like to have a central marketing agency hold a shot gun to your business, and tell you if you don't do business with me - your done. Perhaps you should watch the God Father again, if you haven't.
This is what has happened, every one but the CWB said CashPlus is dead, yet if I had a choice of keeping my business alive or seeing it possibly close, firing employee's, seeing my community lose a substantial tax revenue base. Seeing value added dry up and never be renewed, well I'd cave and accept what I could as well. Call me week I guess ! or call it survival.
The CWB killed three new malt builds in western Canada already, that is fact. If they have broke the maltsers in to accepting CashPlus what is the win for us? what is the win for the maltster? what encouragement do they have to continue to grow and build here?
I say none at all.
Erik