Spring Wheat

[cottonpicken]

Within two months spring wheat will hit 7-8 dollars.

IMO

DYODD

God i hope i'm wrong.

[cottonpicken]

On the bright side were up 87 cents today.

[charliep]

Even Mr. Bear (Moi) might take you up on your forecast of $7 to $8/bu wheat.

Note the 87 cent/bu rally (77 cents as I write) is only on the March with all other months down. May did have some plus numbers earlier this am.

[melvill]

Note how all U.S. wheat futures are trading with the expanded limits. Note, also, how the Mar MGEX is trading with limits removed. At this moment Mar MGEX is up 79 cents while all deferred months are down 12 to 45 cents. "Bizarre' is the only way to describe it.

[charliep]

Always like to turn information into decisions. Chaffmeister mentioned puts when early in the week when prices were higher.

Anyone watching the decline in wheat prices with the idea of buying calls to replace wheat you have sold on a BPC already? Anyone considering selling calls on the theory that the next time MGEX hits $12/bu on the December contract, you will sell like crazy?

[melvill]

I was wrong in the above post. MGEX Mar wheat doesn't go to no-limit trade until it's in the expiry month - trading in March. Oops! However, the limit is 90 cents today (Wed. Feb 13)

[cottonpicken]

There is no doubt we will correct but will it be 38.2,50 or 61.8.

My bet is 61.8.

Hopefully some fundementals come in to protect us.

[crusher]

CP, when did you get so bearish?

[tower]

There's a fair bit of land that is going back into grain production, the US is looking at allowing farmers with land in set aside to harvest that, mostly switchgrass, for ethanol production, as always weather and climate will determine if that can make the surplus grow again. I expect dealers are counting on increased acreage and good growing conditions. It's not what is evident around the world though. Still it would be better for farmers to refrain from going fenceline to fenceline.

[cottonpicken]

To far to fast.

[just_wondering]

At the start of the week I asked if there were any bears out there , and CP asked if it was a joke. Who's the analyst your reading today?

[cottonpicken]

I believe you were refering to selling land.Which is a joke.

I dont need an analyst to tell me that this chart is a parabola.

It is a law of the universe as to how these type of graphs play out.

After we correct we will start to climb again.

I hope i'm wrong i hope we goto 30 and correct to 20.

[TOM4CWB]

C.P.

Without fundementals... technicals go nowhere fast.

So the weather hold the trump card.

Hands Down... no question.

The Fundemental issue is... are we done the fight for acres for 2008?

NO WAY!

Now feed that into your technicals... being a bear now is suicide!

Won't happen till the planters are in the field in the US... and we get some winter wheat up and healthy!

[malleefarmer]

here here, dont sell out on cp just its the correcion we had to have

long term forecasts predict ave weather in southern parts of aust grain area and below ave for west aust that produces 40% of aust total

[cottonpicken]

We'll see.

Theres alot more easier doubles out there than spring wheat.