Post CWB Canada

[bmj182]

Post your thoughts as to what
western Canada, would be like with
out the CWB (ie- would there be
more grain compaines created,
increasing competition or not?) Is
the rapid expansion of the pulse
industry a good example of what
could happen?
Please, keep the politics out, and
stick to business! Thanks

[AdamSmith]

bmj182,

I will pick up from your request for no politics, consciously or not you have answered your own question. No politics.

The wheat industry would operate and function in an environment void of politics. It will be an environment in which innovation and opportunity will take root. The possibilities are limitless.

We will see new value added initiatives which will range from the traditional milling of wheat into flour to more advanced types of value added. I’ve been told that a kernel of wheat can be broken down into many multiple components. (if someone knows the number, maybe they could share that). We will see processing of wheat for these micro components that have very high value.

If there is an opportunity and someone to take the risk, we will see these developments. The politics will seep in when some people try to initiate something that either shouldn’t be initiated or when people who have no business being in these businesses, try to get something going. The free market will, if allowed to function as it should, sort out the who and the what and the where.

Grain companies will come and go with some long established companies falling by the way side and some new ones rising in prominence, everyone though will, by necessity of survival, have to concentrate on their strengths and find their particular niche.

The border will disappear and the RR companies will have to become as efficient as possible because the grain will flow to the lowest cost routes of transportation and handling. Do not discount the idea of large quantities of American grain flowing north to access our infrastructure, should our system offer lower costs to export or to processing.

Exchange the words Canola and Pulses, with Wheat and Barley and that’s what the system and infrastructure will look like and operate like.

Another change will be in the area of varieties and types of wheat. Farmers and the industry will be able to exploit to the fullest the new opportunities in varietal development. We will see wheat being bought and sold based on intrinsic qualities and on specifications than being markets by class. KVD will be go the way of the doe-doe (sp?).

All this and more because we will do as you seem to want us to do and that is getting rid of the politics.

[bmj182]

Adam,
I was referring to the political debate
surrounding the for/against CWB
debate. I'm simply interested in how
farmers see the industry if the CWB
is removed, Thanks for your post!

[AdamSmith]

bmj182,

I was referring to that as well.

Myself and many,many others will be putting 100% of our efforts towards constuctive and enterprising causes. Today it is very much a waste of time because "you know who" is always there at the end of the day to put the kibosh on anything inovative and enterprising that may create a greater opportunity for wheat and barley.

[d_mcbain]

The only restriction would be the limited labour supply for the expansion of agribusiness. From R&D to engineers, construction, plant operators and farm help.

[TOM4CWB]

Good to hear from you d_!

Innovation and value added would be significantly increased... trial and error would occur... but better to have tried and failed than never tried at all! WE LEARN FROM MISTAKES... IF WE ARE SMART!!!

If the CWB remains a buyer... I can see they probably would retain 50-60% market share with wheat and barley... and could easily do more business totally when voluntary marketings of pulses, oats, Canola, and other specialty grains are added in.

In fact if the CWB was voluntary, the wheat from the northern teer of the US could well increase the CWB's total wheat handle well above it's market share now... especially if it hooked up with some big US Co-operatives.

[Braveheart]

bmj182, wheat is mostly politics,whether there is a CWB or not. What we really need to keep out of this discussion is the rhetoric. I'd like to give you my vision of the post CWB Canadian industry.

My vision of post CWB Canada has changed in the past eight years. Just too much time has elapsed. We now have a global economy, not just an emerging one. Other countries that once were customers are now competitors. Milling capacity and infrastructure to support it has been and continues to be built elsewhere. Some things will change, some won't unfortuately.

The changes will come from grain co's and shippers in general being able to negotiate terms, and plan logistics with carriers one on one for more efficiency. This won't always mean lower freight rates, but would cause grain to move when there is demand for it. This should result in higher spot prices and higher net return for farmers. Grain co handling charges should drop as they become merchadisers of wheat and barley, not just handlers.

Another change would see companies contracting directly with growers for production of wheat and barley with specific traits or just contracting with farmers capable of IP or traceability.

I do think the producers of organic and pesticide free produced grains would be in a much better position to extract the value or their products. This is an area of market growth that would operate much better without the single desk seller's involvement.

The banking industry or some credit institution would have to enter this scenario. Most Canadian companies would have difficulty financing large sales of wheat or barley.

The malt industry might expand. Most other value adding ventures would have a very difficult time. Shelf space for processed products is very hard to gain or buy. The food processing industry seems to be very mature and is unbelievably hard to break into. As a result, I'm no longer keen on value adding being a big part of the western Canadian grain scene. The US and Indonesia have beaten us to it.

There would be more livestock in the west. Some farmers just won't grain farm without the CWB. It's a fact.

Some farmers will price well (sometimes) without the board. Some won't price their products well without the board. But whether or not there is a wheat board won't change the fact that there will be fewer farmers in Canada every year.

I do think we would be better off post CWB. The wheat industry could finally work together to "make the pie bigger". The transportation efficiencies, the growing market for organic and other eco products, and the opportunity to develop marketing relationships between end user and grower are enough to convince me that post CWB isn't the post Apocalypse.

Braveheart

[Braveheart]

Well put Braveheart. I feel the same way.There should be no fear of post CWB in Western Canada but a freeing of the future that would let the wheat and barley industry grow like it should have from 55 years ago. It will take time but it will be better.

[ALLFARMER]

Post CWB Canada= 1)Allot of lawyers looking for work. 2) An early and warm spring...because the sky is going to fall without CWB 3)Yankee transport would be short of drivers.

[bmj182]

Good one Allfarmer! Keep posting
your ideas guys.

[Cockshutt]

The most significant thing that will happen post CWB is that we will see the grain sector become a more stable wealth generating industry. The price for all grains will increase because the "CWB escape factor" will ease and the need for farmers to be pushing non-board/non-cereals in their rotations will evaporate. Even if we put 10% of the non-board acres back into wheat the prices of those non-boards will rise accoringly.

Farmers will recieve around a dollar per bushel more for their wheat and malt barley. Some classes of wheat like winter wheat CPS and durum will see values increase by as much as two dollars per bushel.

The wealth generating benifits of an open market are massive. Processing will create value and jobs. Competition will lower the costs of handling and transportation. Higher prices for all grains will create wealth that can be compounded with all the economic activity those higher prices will generate.

The negative economic impacts will be small and location sensitve. Job losses in the economic departments of the U of S and the U of M. Main street Wpg. will lose a number of people trained in communications and creative accounting. At least one prairie farm newspaper will lose it's lifeline and reason for being.

All this could happen with a stroke of Minister Goodale's pen.