DPC VS US Dropped in Pit Price!

[SASKFARMER3]

Just checked today the DPC is $16.46 in pocket. Yet dumped in Pit south of me my HRS is worth!
SPRING WHEAT



Delivery Date Basis Month Basis Cash Price Futures Price
Feb 29, 2008 MW8K 3.00 18.60 15604
Mar 31, 2008 MW8K 3.00 18.60 15604
Apr 30, 2008 MW8K 3.00 18.60 15604
May 31, 2008 MW8K 3.00 18.60 15604

Why has the Spread changed from a month ago of around $1.00 less to $2.14 today.
Again they just keep screwing us By some $50,000.00 to $65,000.00
WHY VADER WHY!

[bucket]

sf3

Amazing isn't it. Wait till you hear the explanation from the cwb. It will make your blood boil.

They will tell you the cost to get it to some point in the states and make up some inflated number for freight to get it there. Since I am so stupid - I asked them since I pay to get my grain to the west coast - why don't I get the west coast price.
The cwb has been robbing the dpc contract holders blind. Sure its a good price compared to the pool but it was a lottery if you got a contract that one hour. They are still stealing your money.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes - don't get me wrong it is an excellent price but why does this organization not work for its farmers. It just year after year steels from us with no penalties to them.
Big Brother its time to leave the building.
The one good think their Hanging them selves slowly every day.

[liberty]

The disparity between the DPC price and elevator prices south of the border keeps coming up again and again, with the CWB price being consistently below what American farmers are getting. Despite this evidence, the official CWB line is that our marketing monopoly always gets a premium over what a competitive marketing system would achieve.

After reading through some of the more recent posts on this forum, I'm beginning to piece together what might be going on here.

I suspect that the CWB compares its sales prices to those generated by some obscure, hard-to-understand, secretive grain pricing "model". This grain pricing model probably assumes that an environment with only one seller will get consistent premiums over an environment with many sellers. Therefore, the prices generated by the "model" always reflect this.

This sounds similar to the "hedonic calculator" model used by various western governments to measure inflation. Because of its method of "weighting" prices in certain ways, its habit of ignoring prices that are too "volatile" and by overestimating the effects of computer technology, the hedonic calculator has been heavily criticized for deliberately underestimating the actual extent of inflation. This works to the advantage of governments who can keep increases in inflation-adjusted wages and pensions below what they otherwise might be.

It's my contention that what the CWB directors probably see in terms of price comparisons is not the straightforward, readily available (thanks to the internet) farmgate pricing comparisons that countless people on this forum refer to, but rather prices determined on the basis of a model which was designed purposely to inflate the values that the CWB receives.

What astounds me is that some of the directors who should know better don't stop for a minute to delve into the mechanics behind these pricing models.

[AdamSmith]

SF3, I did a buyback on my un-registered American wheat on Friday.

Worked through Delmar Commodities.

Because it's an un-registered variety, We were able to buy it at the TB Feed Wheat asking price. On Friday that was $10.29 bu. less the initial of $6.36/bu for a buyback of $3.93/bu plus I will be put in the pool and will probably get another $2-$3 from that by the end of the year.

So with a probable cost of $1-$2 per bushel in order to get my licence, I am now free to sell into ND.

Martain Harder from Delmar had been offered a bit more than $20 per bushel base 14% protien for this wheat on Friday Eastern ND, but we haven't sold yet. Maybe tommorrow.

My wheat is around 15 px so I wouldn't doubt I'll net near $20 per bushel on 16000 bushels bought back on Friday.

Delmar did one big buy back Friday before the open for myself and three others of 3500 tonnes.

The key is because it was un-registered I got to buy it back as feed wheat.

I was amazed, even the young fellow I talked to at the cwb seemed pretty exited for me when I called for the licence. He just kept saying, oh your going to do really well on this.

[SASKFARMER3]

Thats Great Adam. Wow really great.
But if I get seed from the Reletives do you think it will work two years in a row?

[AdamSmith]

That's the million dollar question.

I kept back enough seed for myself for all my non-canola and pea acres. But if it doesn't work as well next year I'm back stuck with a whole bunch of feed wheat. But that might still be a good thing.

I thought my variety was Glenn, but have since discoverd it's Freyer, pretty much the same thing though.

But I don't know why it won't work because the board will still want to keep the feed wheat asking price low enough to satisfy the eastern feed users. So I'm betting it will work another year.

[wmoebis]

so why not just sell all wheat as feed wht. Do a buy back and head south?

[AdamSmith]

wmoebis,

once a grade has been established that is what you have to buy back.

99.99% of farmers submit a post harvest sample and from that a grade is established. 99.99% of farmers grow registered varieties and as such claim that with crop insurance so there is always a record.

Myself I always was up front and told crop insurance and the grain companies what the wheat was, that being an un-registered ND Variety.

I assume the cwb will want a sample for verification, at least I would assume they will make an attempt to verify my claim that it is what I say it is.

[wmoebis]

It's not hard to make feed wht. add over 3.8 con classes and you have feed wht.

It is graded on what you sell not harvest. If you had #1 at harvest and it heated in bin you couldn't sell for #1 then. Doesn't mater about crop ins. either.If you have a screw up and mix classes it would be graded feed and go into feed class.

AC Barrie is growen in USA.

[TOM4CWB]

AdamSmith,

Sure glad you stuck with it!