2008/09 PRO is on the CWB Website

[charliep]

http://www.cwb.ca/dom/db/contracts/pool_return/pro.nsf/WebPRPub/2008_20080225.html?OpenDocument&CropYr=2008-09&pf=0

1CWRS 13.5 about $390/tonne port.

1 CPS $355/tonne port

1 CWSWS $346/tonne. Lower than expected but I guess fits spreads in the futures market.

1 CWAD 13 - $466/tonne port or $56 above the mid point of my guess. Will be looking at the discounts for the FPC this afternoon but would appear to allow for close to $10/bu next year (locked in price).

Pool A feed barley - $235/tonne port.

Malt barley- $360 and $340/tonne port respectively on the pooled price.

[charliep]

The respectively is 2 row and 6 row.

Will be watching the relationship between the PRO and the fixed price contracts this afternoon. Are the prices released this morning a forecast or values the CWB feels comfortable offering farmers as cash payments/being able to hedge pool risk? There is a substantial difference.

[parsley]

Tarot cards during CWB's hour-long coffee breaks.

Thought you knew.

[parsley]

You know who left a half-deck.

[AdamSmith]

Half Deck?

Is that the back half of the Titanic's deck that Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet were clinging onto when the unsinkable ship went down?

but instead of Jack Dawson and Rose imagine eight CWB Directors clinging precariously to the stern of the RMS Titanic.

March Minneapolis Wheat plays the part of the Iceberg.

Up $4.75 a bushel in one day plays the part of the giant rip in Titanics hull.

Frozen floating dead bodies = DA Farmers.

[charliep]

Just a note the February 2007/08 refers to where last years PRO started - not the current 2007/08 PRO. When you put the current PRO in, it makes the decision around which crop year interesting. 1CWRS 13.5 $30 above old crop. 1CPS $20 above old crop. Durum old crop a $30/tonne premium to new. Forecast 2008/09 malt barley at $75 to $80/tonne premium to old crop.

Was going to make some snide comments on malt barley but will only comment that I am glad I am not a maltster trying to source barley.

The other sign (unless the market crashes) is there will be a "C" series. Wouldn't be well subscribed with at least some farmers holding or leaving wheat on storage tickets to play the which crop year card on July 31.

[parsley]

Don't get too vindictive, charliep,.

Scroll down

down

to the FARTHEST-down WBGA.

You could end up in the same kayak as cropduster.

CashPlus.


LOL

Parsley

[charliep]

Basis levels/FPC are posted.

http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/2008_index.html

1CWRS 13.5 - basis $29.10/tonne under. First basis 2007 - $5.73/tonne over. First basis 2006 - $22.96/tonne over.

1CPS - basis $45.67/tonne under. First basis 2007 - $20.57/tonne under. First basis 2006 - $20.86/tonne under.

1CWSWS - basis $25.14/tonne under. First basis 2007 - $3.55/tonne under. First basis 2006 - $13.01/tonne over.

1CWAD 13 - discount for risk - $46.59/tonne. Discount Feb. 2007 - $16.27/tonne. Discount Feb. 2006 - $12.97/tonne.

http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/2007_200702.html

http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/2006_200602.html

[charliep]

Don't know what to tell you on basis. A good starting point for decision making is to look at the historical basis level charts (on the CWB website). Current are at least $10/tonne weaker than any other year/time period. Some extra basis will reflect volatility. Having said that, having the basis reflect a relationship with the PRO and not cash prices makes forecasting basis difficult, inconsistent and not transparent.

[Fransisco]

Okay lets dare to compare then...

Starting with HRS, backed off to Manitoba the board gets me $9.73 per bu CAD with their fixed price contract

Looking south Berthold Farmers Elevator is offering $11.50 USD. Subtract 4 cents and you get $11.46 CAD

So we're $1.73 below the yanks once again.

Which I suppose is par for the course if you're comparing basis levels and relationships historically.

[Fransisco]

Now this has me thinking about Oats. If the yanks want our oats they are going to have to beat this wheat price to get the acres. If they don't they'll have to pay up next year when the oats isn't around.

[Hopperbin]

Lots of farmers in my area won't plant wheat because of the midge scare. Oats is going in big time. They may not have to pay for it. Back to wheat the CWB is a few dollars low on their fixed prices. Not even taking into account that grading milling wheat can be a bitch sometimes. I say don't price new crop wheat.