Won't comment on the offer. Having said that, how should new farmers enter the industry? If you were starting your business today with limited funds (I will assume something less than $500,000), how would you do it? Is there a need for venture capital (someone willing to assume some risk but expecting a higher pay off) in Agriculture versus straight secured debt?
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"I'm not thrilled about the deal in light of the dramatic rise in commodity prices, but I need the land base as well."
Steve, was it an acceptable deal when canola was $10/bu and you would split 100/ac (30 bu@10 minus 200/ac inputs)? Now that canola is $15/bu you will split 30 bu@15 minus 200/ac, 250/ac.
You will still make more money from this rally, just not as much more as if you were able to stay with straight cash rent.
Unless you are sure there is no competition for this land you will probably have to go with his deal. Have you shown him the numbers if we get a killing frost in mid august?
It seems when prices are high the discounts get pretty big for #3?
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I think the plus for the young under capitalized who could gravitate to this Agstream deal is if there is a crop failure. All of a sudden 150 dollars cash/acre in your jeans don't look to bad, especially if you do not presell canola. From the other side where else can an outside investor buy canola for 8.57/bu, but only if the production hits 35/bu/acre. $150/17.5 bu.
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So in a crop failure farmer would lose half the money he would have lost.
In an average crop the farmer would make only half as much profit.
In the longer term a farmer should make a profit. Especially if he already has an average 35 bu/acre history for canola.
A new farmer would not even qualify because he does not have the history to back up his yield data unless he can use his fathers or the corporations history.
If I was a father with a son contemplating using agstreams service then I would be worried.
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If their is a father son relation ship and the son is contemplating using these guys. DAD give him half the inputs and then in fall take half his crop JUST TO PROVE A POINT. Then give it back later just before Christmas. Its a life lesson Better coming from family than these leaches.
Bloodsuckers.
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