CWB supporters are NUTS!

[winwin]

Why would they care how much wheat is really worth?Few of them actually grow any.OR they work for or get paid by the board OR they have got their special sweet exemption like the NFU deal.

For these guys its great!Keep you in while they are already out.

[agstar77]

S3 and ww, when was the last time you phoned to the U.S. for canola prices? Or for that matter oats prices? You will deal with your local brokers first. Lets draw the picture of western farmers calling terminals in the U. S. and sending loads of grain across the border. It isn't going to happen with or without the CWB. Get a grip on reality, the CWB debate is only about philosophy not reality .

[TOM4CWB]

Stubble,

"tom you talk one thing and do the oposite. is it on purpose or are you that simple minded?"

WHY DON't you (Stub) answer the questions...?

How much of your net income actually comes from growing wheat and barley?

[jensend]

maybe one of the market analysts can produce this information or indicate where it's available. i would like to see the distribution of wheat and durum sales in the usa in different price ranges (like one dollar increments) so that a weighted average could be calculated. this would be the only way to evaluate cwb performance. they are supposed to have marketing expertise but some american farmers pay good money for market advice as well. anybody who's done any marketing on their own knows that the price goes to an extreme high because there's very little in stocks and rarely because hundreds of thousands of farmers simultaneously locked the bin doors.

[charliep]

USDA does do weighted average prices. See the average and note 2 below. In general, read the footnotes.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Wheat/YBtable20.asp

I will note the CWB does this and uses as a performance measure in the annual report. Perhaps this data should be published or provided by an agency outside the CWB through an audit process. See the annual report.

Quote bottom page 43: "The wheat pricing model establishes the pace for pricing the wheat pool. The pace is denoted as the target price pace. Pricing with the model is a combination of actual sales activity and derivative trades. Pricing is more or less than the daily "target" amount is regarded as the discretionary sales activity. Daily sales and derivative transactions are benchmarked to the current futures market prices at the end of each day. In a rising market, as was the case in the summer and fall of 2007, results will be negative if the actual amount of the wheat priced exceeded the amount to be priced by the target pricing pace. Tonnage priced at earlier price levels will produce negative results when these positions are closed out at the market price above the level at which they were initiated."

Without going into the prices themselves, the benchmark is based on CWB actual and derivative sales over time period - likely from March 2006 to September 2007 or 18 months. Using wheat ex durum as an example (15.5 MMT pool size), the benchmark assumes the 28,700 tonnes every day over a 540 day period were priced at the market over the whole. This could be weighted but will let someone else fill in the gaps.

[jensend]

my point is that there are few (could be none) of the marketing choice people on here that would have had any durum left to sell at twenty-five dollars. that is the way the markets work. if you have none left i could offer you five hundred dollars a bushel but your revenues and my cost won't change. to calculate your opportunity cost against the highest prices for the year is disingenuous at best and maybe stupid more likely.

[cottonpicken]

Was the average durum price in the us 7 bucks and 6 bucks for spring wheat?I believe those were the usda's numbers.

A convienently over looked fact.

Personally i would have made 100% durum sales at 20$So i hope the board goes.

But.... for a lot of people here i am skeptical they could beat the pool price.

[TOM4CWB]

Jensend,

You said:

"my point is that there are few (could be none) of the marketing choice people on here that would have had any durum left to sell at twenty-five dollars."

What was that?

If I sold 100%, my choice as 100%.

If I sold 0%, and that was my decision... it would be 0% sold.

Saying I would or would not have sold is irrelevant.

The CWB forces us into boxes.

A DPC box... 1.5 hours long... In JUNE... BEFORE quality or quantity is known... HOW STUPID is THAT?

A FPC box... that is priced out against my will, that is determined not by markets... but by how well or how badly the CWB is doing with the pool... and how much of the basis the market determined.... the CWB can steal... without me screaming too loudly.

NONE of these options come even close to transparent cash picing of our wheat... which has nothing to do with the single desk. The CWB could cash price tomorrow without one change to Regulations or the CWB Act.

SO tell me why we were not allowed to cash price last week... when everyone on the planet wanted our wheat... and were willing to pay well over $20/bu at the farm gate for CWRS 13.5px in western Canada?

All we had to do... was to get it to port position by the end of April!

I would haul it with my own truck to port... for that return!

What on earth are you people looking at? THIS IS INSANE!

[charliep]

Always curious about the discussion here. One person sells they can pick the top (maybe they can). Another says that farmers left to their devices would sell the low.

The world I know (board and open) says pricing goes on 365 days a year. What drives this is the consumption side which needs product 365 days a year. The production feeds into this process with both producers and users looking for a fair and visible system to establish value on a daily basis.

My experience on open market crops is most farmers can use marketing tools to plan their sales to be profitable and pay bills as they come due. This more than likely means averaging sales over 12 to 18 months in the same as with CWB crops except who makes decisions - an individual farm manager or someone in Winnipeg.

[silverback]

Yes Tom, it is insanity.

It is obviously better to these people that everyone get the same price (whatever that price is!) than allow anyone to potentially get even one cent more, or less, by making individual decisions based on what is best for them.

It is exactly the union mentality, "don't work too hard or you will make the rest of us look bad, and then you may succeed instead of us."