durum

[Flintoft]

Is there still going to be upward movement in the next few PROs for durum. Some farmers think that$14.50 may be within reach. Any ideas?

[Hopperbin]

Anything is possible. A lot of fixed priced contracts got sold at 1.5 below market value net to the producer. So that could push the pro up if the CWB needs something to do with the money other than put it in the contingency fund. Or to make things look good for themselves when support is not great.

[winwin]

The cwb was set up to pay $1.43 in a$2.50 plus market for the war and post war. IT STANDS TO REASON YOU SHOULD HOPE TO GET $14 IN A $25 DURUM MARKET.

[charliep]

Opporunities for higher durum payments will depend on 3 factors.

What percent of the 2007 crop that has been contracted on the "A" and "B" series has been contracted? The PRO gives some indication of payments but that has to be backed up by the percentage of the pool priced to evaluate opportunity.

How much farmer stored durum has not been contracted? If farmers can be encouraged to deliver and the CWB sells at the current high prices, there is opportunity for higher payments.

Delivery patterns. I expect there is a pretty hefty old/new crop inverse with incentive to sell now versus hold. So factors that impact delivery (rail capacity, farmers ability/willingness to deliver, etc. will impact payments.

Not relevant to your question but I might also add CWB to be creative and innovative in durum contracting programs. Why not a CashPlus for durum? Why not multiple pooling periods? The current producer pricing options for durum do not work.

[charliep]

My second sentence doesn't make sense.

What percent of the 2007 crop that has been contracted BY FARMERS on the "A" and "B" series has been SOLD BY THE CWB? The PRO gives some indication of payments but that has to be backed up by the percentage of the pool priced to evaluate opportunity.