Things to follow this week

[charliep]

What issues will you be following this week?

My eyes will be on canola and to some extent feed barley.

Also trying to figure out seeding intentions.

Know everyone will argue numbers but will try to put up some gross revenue numbers to generate discussion. Trying for similar input/management each crop.

Canola. 30 bu/acre times $15/bu. $450

1 CWRS. 40 bu/acre times $9/bu. $360

1 CPS. 45 bu/acre times $8/bu. $360

Malt barley 60 bu/acre times $6.50/bu. $390.

Feed barley 70 bu/acre times $4.50/bu. $315.

Peas - 40 bu/acre times $8.50/bu. $340.

Have not included expense. Yields and prices are indicators only - feel free to criticize. Also today new crop prices. Could be lower this fall with perfect weather over the summer.

[brian99]

Charlie, when does the winter wheat harvest start in Texas? I was wondering if wheat has one more shot at new highs or not. Wow, all prices look very strong. How about oats and rye? Some drylanders grow rye here and coffee shop talk said was rye was through the roof. We got 110 bushels per acre(fall seeded real late after potatoes).

[agstar77]

CL Apparently Malt can be contracted for over 7 in S. Alta. However I don't believe you can contract 15 Canola for Fall.

[lesm]

Agstar. Check www.bungecanadanipawin.com. Nov canola is quoted at $16.27 for Nov delivery!(fob plant)

[charliep]

brian99

Will check with Lee but I think Texas harvest is mainly May.

Googled your question and came up with the following maps. Texas is not specific - before June 1.

http://www.apsnet.org/education/lessonsplantpath/StemRustWheat/text/fig12.htm

[charliep]

On the canola oilseed front, note that CBT soybean oil has cruised over 70 cents a pound, soybean meal close to $400/ton, soybeans at close to $16/bu. Canola - not $800/tonne yet but....

Again, my objective is always to turn information into decisions. Thoughts. I can't pick tops so no help to you. Selling $16/bu canola up to a production comfort level on canola is likely not a bad thing.

[kryger]

$15.73 for Sept/Oct 08 delivery.
$15.87 for Nov 08 delivery.
$16.70 for July 09 delivery.

All prices in the pit at Viterra in Killam, AB.

You have to check prices, Agstar. You are not dealing with the CWB here.

You gotta love the open market. I can sell now for $15.69 or store until July 09 for a $1.00 premium.

By the way, that is a premium that I can figure out in about 10 seconds, unlike the CWB 100 page report, with "premiums" derived at by the dart board or prices in a tophat method.

[agstar77]

I guess thats what happens when you don't glue yourself to the screen. 16.55 dropped in the pit cash. Up 1.00 from Friday. The Chinese must be desparate to have enough cooking oil during the olympics. They are sucking uo soyoil like there is no tommorrow.

[agstar77]

I think we should all watch Bill C39. Ritz is in a hurray to pass this one for his Grain company buddies so they can have a more efficient system.

[charliep]

Actually you reminded about the CWB district meetings Agstar77. Know from other sources that the CWB is considering more creative and innovative contracting programs including 52 week a year full payment/pricing alternatives. Hopefully some explanation about the programs/encourage of dialogue versus the normal straight announcement some time late this spring.

Will also be interested in the explanation about how the CWB can blow $40 mln out of the contingency fund on risk management programs. Hopefully more than a set of excuses. Have been a member of a board in the past and have had to be accountable for cash reserves. If I did to a cash reserve fund what the CWB did, I would be hanging from a tree somewhere. No one seems to care when the CWB does it.