Things to follow this week

[charliep]

What issues will you be following this week?

My eyes will be on canola and to some extent feed barley.

Also trying to figure out seeding intentions.

Know everyone will argue numbers but will try to put up some gross revenue numbers to generate discussion. Trying for similar input/management each crop.

Canola. 30 bu/acre times $15/bu. $450

1 CWRS. 40 bu/acre times $9/bu. $360

1 CPS. 45 bu/acre times $8/bu. $360

Malt barley 60 bu/acre times $6.50/bu. $390.

Feed barley 70 bu/acre times $4.50/bu. $315.

Peas - 40 bu/acre times $8.50/bu. $340.

Have not included expense. Yields and prices are indicators only - feel free to criticize. Also today new crop prices. Could be lower this fall with perfect weather over the summer.

[brian99]

Charlie, when does the winter wheat harvest start in Texas? I was wondering if wheat has one more shot at new highs or not. Wow, all prices look very strong. How about oats and rye? Some drylanders grow rye here and coffee shop talk said was rye was through the roof. We got 110 bushels per acre(fall seeded real late after potatoes).

[agstar77]

CL Apparently Malt can be contracted for over 7 in S. Alta. However I don't believe you can contract 15 Canola for Fall.

[lesm]

Agstar. Check www.bungecanadanipawin.com. Nov canola is quoted at $16.27 for Nov delivery!(fob plant)

[charliep]

brian99

Will check with Lee but I think Texas harvest is mainly May.

Googled your question and came up with the following maps. Texas is not specific - before June 1.

http://www.apsnet.org/education/lessonsplantpath/StemRustWheat/text/fig12.htm

[charliep]

On the canola oilseed front, note that CBT soybean oil has cruised over 70 cents a pound, soybean meal close to $400/ton, soybeans at close to $16/bu. Canola - not $800/tonne yet but....

Again, my objective is always to turn information into decisions. Thoughts. I can't pick tops so no help to you. Selling $16/bu canola up to a production comfort level on canola is likely not a bad thing.

[kryger]

$15.73 for Sept/Oct 08 delivery.
$15.87 for Nov 08 delivery.
$16.70 for July 09 delivery.

All prices in the pit at Viterra in Killam, AB.

You have to check prices, Agstar. You are not dealing with the CWB here.

You gotta love the open market. I can sell now for $15.69 or store until July 09 for a $1.00 premium.

By the way, that is a premium that I can figure out in about 10 seconds, unlike the CWB 100 page report, with "premiums" derived at by the dart board or prices in a tophat method.

[agstar77]

I guess thats what happens when you don't glue yourself to the screen. 16.55 dropped in the pit cash. Up 1.00 from Friday. The Chinese must be desparate to have enough cooking oil during the olympics. They are sucking uo soyoil like there is no tommorrow.

[agstar77]

I think we should all watch Bill C39. Ritz is in a hurray to pass this one for his Grain company buddies so they can have a more efficient system.

[charliep]

Actually you reminded about the CWB district meetings Agstar77. Know from other sources that the CWB is considering more creative and innovative contracting programs including 52 week a year full payment/pricing alternatives. Hopefully some explanation about the programs/encourage of dialogue versus the normal straight announcement some time late this spring.

Will also be interested in the explanation about how the CWB can blow $40 mln out of the contingency fund on risk management programs. Hopefully more than a set of excuses. Have been a member of a board in the past and have had to be accountable for cash reserves. If I did to a cash reserve fund what the CWB did, I would be hanging from a tree somewhere. No one seems to care when the CWB does it.

[charliep]

The dates by the way are below. See the CWB website for more details.

CWB directors engage farmers in shaping CWB’s future

March 3, 2008

Winnipeg – Prairie farmers have the opportunity to get directly involved in shaping the CWB's future by participating in the annual Farmer Forums elected directors are kicking off today.

These meetings, which are part of the board of directors' commitment to engage all farmers in their business, are taking place in 30 communities across Western Canada from March 3 to 13.

“Farmer Forums provide a venue for two-way communication between producers and the elected directors who represent them at the board table,” said Ken Ritter, chair of the board of directors. “We are all directly accountable to farmers. These meetings provide an opportunity to hear from producers in our districts, get feedback and engage them in talking about where we need to go in the future.”

Information presented at the meetings will include an overview of CWB performance and financial results for 2006-07, new pricing and delivery proposals, as well as market and price outlooks. Farmers can pre-register by phoning 1-800-275-4292, or e-mailing questions@cwb.ca.

Controlled by western Canadian farmers, the CWB is the largest wheat and barley marketer in the world. One of Canada's biggest exporters, the Winnipeg-based organization sells grain to over 70 countries and returns all sales revenue, less marketing costs, to farmers.

Locations and dates of CWB Farmer Forums

For a complete list including times, venues and directors, visit www.cwb.ca.

Alberta:
March 3 Bashaw
March 4 Three Hills, Legal
March 5 Nampa, Taber, Mundare
March 6 Fairview
March 7 Arrowwood
March 11 Provost, Vermillion

Saskatchewan:
March 3 Humboldt
March 4 Prince Albert, Swift Current, Landis, Maple Creek
March 5 Foam Lake, Nipawin
March 6 Kenaston, Luseland, Duval, Redvers
March 7 Churchbridge, Fort Qu’Appelle
March 11 Weyburn
March 12 Turtleford
March 13 Moose Jaw

Manitoba:
March 3 Notre Dame de Lourdes
March 4 Killarney
March 5 Selkirk
March 6 Deloraine

[Hopperbin]

Agstar I hear the Chinese are also crying for malt barley. Too bad the board won't sell to them. There is as much middle class in China now than the whole USA population.

[kryger]

Agstar, you don't have to be glued to the screen. I check in the morning and in the afternoon. If I could get wheat prices like they do in the states, I think it would be worth while to be glued to the screen. $6.00 to $7.00 difference between open market and the Board price. You bet I would be glued to the screen.

$3.00 difference on Malt barley, I could spend time on the computer, actually, I could not afford not to.

You get out of it what you put into it, Agstar. Quit riding the CWB shirt tails, and start putting out.

[agstar77]

And if the Pro was greater than the open market price?

[AdamSmith]

Is it, Agstar?