No cash bids exist for canola at this time

[SASKFARMER3]

No cash bids exist for canola at this time that's whats on Bunges web site starting last night. Now did farmers liquidate all Canola or is the crazy sell off that's happening scarring more than the farmers?

[Zaphod]

If the market is locked limit down, there's no way to hedge the purchase. Simple as that. Take a look at palm oil and bean oil. This ain't just a canola thing.

It's still possible that the thing can bounce, but it's not a certainty. Once the shorts are all covered, it could get even uglier.

[wilagro]

That's the "advantage" of the open market..."UNCERTAINTY". Live with it...grow an ulcer or two. Or grow crops that you can sell through a central marketing agency such as the CWB.

[Zaphod]

That's right. Take away the opportunity to sell canola at 15 or 16 bucks and give me the $7 average. I can sleep much better at night knowing that I don't have to think or make decisions.

[charliep]

wilagro

Are you saying the volatility in the market has no impact on CWB programs? Richard Dzisiak did an excellent job of addressing volatility and impact on the producer pricing option basis levels at the Legal district meeting.

If you are making marketing decisions on any crop today (including CWB ones), volatility is impacting you. If you are happy with the average price the CWB provides, you can live in ignorance/bliss.

[cottonpicken]

Guess what guys it will bounce,then it will take out its old high then the shorts are going to run for their lives,then the weak will be broke and the smart shall be rich and once again darwin will be correct.

[cottonpicken]

CP I hope your right, but I don't think it will break the old high. We are most certantly going to bounce, but I think we will need weather now to break old highs. To much damage is done.

12.00 Still 58000 contracts bidding limit down in Beans. Sorry boys this thing aint done yet!

[Zaphod]

I agree with Snappy. It's going to bounce. If it makes it past a 61.8 retracement, I'll buy you a beer. I have my doubts though.

That 63,000 contracts in the May Bean sell pool is 315 million bushels, 8.5 million tonnes or 171 Panamaxes. Yikes.

[Zaphod]

I forgot to mention I'm still going long, but I need to see some trading to see if this thing can reverse to new highs.

[Zaphod]

You're a braver man (person) than I am. It takes all kinds though to make the market tick.

[kuzma]

Hey, cp put your money where your mouth is and tell us when you will go long on 100 contracts of canola and prove your marketing wisdom

[SASKFARMER3]

Zap I threw this out as a discussion but on the Average Here is it so far.

20000 x 12
20000 x 16
20000 x To gamble

Average so far $14.00 even if it crashes to 7 = $11.66 so how did we do.
To be honest I figure the gamble may pay off either in Seeding (south is dry) or when China finally tells the world were out of product or June when combination of Dry and South America real numbers are out.

[SASKFARMER3]

Sorry Zap I was meaning for Wilgro.

[Jay-mo]

Saskfarmer, exactly. The BEST we can ever hope for from the ulcer-free CWB (hey, that has a jingle to it) is an average price. Not necessarily an average of annual historically good pricing opportunities (if thats your marketing strategy), but just a year long average.

[cottonpicken]

I dont have to prove anything here.

I am long and leveraged,just not in canola,otherthings are way more undervalued.