It will be an ugly couple days ahead!!

[charliep]

snappy

Curious on what evidence there is that China shorted the market? I would be cautious of gossip in newsletters.

[chaffmeister]

CP:

OK, so let’s say you’re the marketing manager at the CWB and Indonesia is in the market for 100,000 tonnes of wheat. (Assume we don’t care what kind or grade – let’s keep this simple.) Market fundamentals are terribly bullish (again, let’s not worry about the details). Trouble (from your perspective), is the market (futures) price is at the bottom of a trend channel – not a place or time you want to sell.

What do you do? (As the CWB, you have two options: you can sell or do nothing.)

I’m going to guess that you would say “don’t sell anything” because technically we are at support levels and if anything, you’d want to buy. Or you might say “if you absolutely have to sell or else lose the business to someone else, then sell it and replace it with futures”.

What I was trying to say in my earlier post was that as the CWB, you really don’t have those two options. As the CWB, if you pass on business, it doesn’t come back. And, as far as I know, the CWB’s mandate does not include being long futures.

So, to reiterate my last post, you can’t vilify the CWB on timing of sales alone and call it criminal. What I have said over and over is that the CWB system of selling somewhat evenly throughout the year diminishes any market power it might have. Price comparisons have shown that this kind of marketing results in less than average returns. And farmers can’t do anything to counter it.

Criminal? No.
Piss-poor? Absolutely.

Snappy:

As for China, my experience is that they aren’t known to get short futures in a major way (although who knows, right?) since they are often a natural short (when they are net importers). So, I wouldn’t go so far as to say they are selling/short futures, but they have been known to send the market bogus signals (as you’ve suggested). Problem is you never know whether it’s true or bogus. I’m with Charlie on this one – be careful about rumours. Can you or CP direct me to where it’s being said that China is short futures?

CP/Snappy: A technical service I get stated the following this morning:

“With last week’s trade in the SK, the market completed a weekly key reversal. The daily cycle is continuing to head for its low but it is a whole new ballgame with the weekly key reversal in place. This key reversal is very good evidence the weekly and potentially the monthly cycles are in their respective down phases. If you will recall the bi-weekly update dated January 11, 2008, you will have read that from a probability point of view the ideal month for the monthly cycle to peak is March 2008.”

So you see, technically, this reversal has been suggested for some time. As a technical signal, the key reversal is one that been very good to me over the years.

[cottonpicken]

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Scroll down to the friday,march 7 204 pm article by dan norcini.

Then read the whole page and get yourselves up to speed on whats going on.You are embarassing yourselfs.

[cottonpicken]

It will catch up with them eventually, when that big wall of reality hits them in the face. By the way good article.

[chaffmeister]

CP – interesting article.

As evidentiary support of your comments that “I’m hearing its chinese causing this and i hope the b@stard shorts get burnt!” you point us to an article that has only one line about soybeans and the Chinese:

“China has pulled off one cute little coup in the soybean market but they are playing with fire and I think are going to get seriously burned”.

Is that your evidence that China is shorting the bean market? Anything else? Please tell me there’s more. Please tell me you’re not just repeating what one of your gurus said (right down to the colloquialism "getting burned").

You remind of the Looney Tunes character Chester (the excitable Terrier) who is a fawning sycophant to his hero Spike (the Bulldog), hanging on his every word and action.

You’re so quick to diminish anything anyone else says that you missed an important point. Neither Charlie nor I actually disagreed with you. We just questioned your sources and your odd and/or confusing use of trading terminology. Embarassed? I don’t think so.

But tell me what you mean by:
“As far as the market mechanics of shorting a market or going long(selling-buying futures,buying-selling puts and calls)I guess you either believe this effects price or you dont.”

Is this your way of continuing to say the Chinese were in fact shorting the market or, as I suspect, just your way of trying to make it sound like we don’t know what we’re talking about?

Since frankness seems to be your favoured approach, allow me to be frank with you. You say that you’ve only been studying technicals for a few years and it will take a lot more before you’re a qualified expert. Take it from me, someone who’s been advising both technicals and fundamentals for a lot of years, it shows (especially when you admit you can’t explain rudimentary technical signals and that you felt you had to ask snappy for help).

When I was talking about China in my previous post (as was Charlie, and Snappy, partly) it was along the lines of this comment:

“Rumor overnight that China would release government reserves of soy oil stocks put pressure on the soybean oil market after trading limit up early in the session.”

Note it doesn’t say anything about shorting futures – which was my point. No doubt they could be, but that’s not the point (and besides, we haven’t seen any evidence of it have we?) As an importer they are short already and will gain with the lower market (Charlie’s point). And yes, their comments, leaked or otherwise, were likely more strategic than “honest”.


One last thing, CP – you deftly avoided the discussion you started about the CWB. Is there a reason for that? Are we to believe that you’ve shared all that you know and understand about the CWB and grain marketing?

[chaffmeister]

Chaff, love your advice on marketing!! Too bad you don't actually have the raw product to work with!! But alot easier to give advice when it's not your money. Give me a break!

Also get your head out of the sand. The Chinese have been influencing the market for years. You call it stragetical marketing. I call it spineless ba@#$ds, who won't call a spaid a spaid. But I forgot your take on the CWB Chaff. The CWB supporters have the same spine as the Chinese!!!

[cottonpicken]

Remeber when gold was 375?
I do and the people of this site were saying BUY.

Remeber when oil was 27?
I do and the people of this site were saying BUY.

These guys little fingers know more about the markets than the combined knowledge here.And yes i repeat a lot of what these people say.They talk about things years before mainstream catches on.

If your a technical wizard why havent you spoke up in the past?Why didnt you pipe up when canola made its breakout at 464?You could have helped alot of people.Maybe you should start saying a few things before hand to gain a little credibility.

As far as cwb sales?
If cwb sells 100,000 tonnes below market value-this pulls prices down
If cwb sells above market price this pulls prices up.

Common larry i expected better.

[charliep]

Interesting attitude towards a good customer. My experience is China is good at what they do (which buying product at as a low a price as possible) but fair. That is no different than any farmer on this website who buys inputs, equipment, etc.

Will note the following from a description of the agricultural challenges in China.

Quote: "Grain is the basis of human survival and development. China is a large grain producer and
consumer. The grain issue has a direct bearing on China’s economic development and national security as well as the international grain security. Chinese government always at-taches great importance to the grain issue. Through long-term efforts, China has successfully fed nearly 20% of the world’s population with less than 10% of the world's cultivated land.This is a great contribution China has made to the global grain production and security. Inrecent years, Chinese government has further adopted a series of policies and methods to strengthen the fundamental role of agriculture, and to improve the comprehensive grain productivity."

http://www.chinagrain.gov.cn/english/index.html

[charliep]

Cottonpicken

There is room to put your name in as a moderator area. Go for it.

[LWeber]

Common larry i expected better.

Huh!

How many times have u seen my name on this thread?

[chaffmeister]

Hey Larry.
Give me a call.

[chaffmeister]

Snappy – perhaps I missed your sarcasm, but I didn’t give any marketing advice on this thread.

And thanks for the history lesson on Chinese commodity market tactics. By the way, I didn’t call it “strategic marketing” – I said that their use of information (sending market signals) is “strategic”, meaning it had a purpose other than simply providing information. For what its worth, my comment was not a judgement call on the Chinese (you seem to think I was applauding their efforts). It was just an observation. Don’t try to spin me.


CP – I am utterly amazed that you criticize me because I have not “spoke up in the past”. This is coming from the guy that calls anyone an idiot if they don’t agree with him, understand him or do exactly as he says. Oops – I mean exactly as he says Jim Sinclair says.

Oh yeah – as for helping people, how’s that working for you? You really think telling people they’re idiots helps anyone? You basically say ‘shut up and listen to me’ and then add ‘DYODD’. Isn’t that clever.

The smartest thing you’ve ever posted here is ‘DYODD’. And even that’s not an original thought on your part.


On the CWB, you’ve missed the mark again.

In the interest of the debate, I would still like to hear your response. As the CWB marketing manager, what would YOU do in the scenario I painted? How would you improve the CWB’s performance?