It will be an ugly couple days ahead!!

[cottonpicken]

It will catch up with them eventually, when that big wall of reality hits them in the face. By the way good article.

[chaffmeister]

CP – interesting article.

As evidentiary support of your comments that “I’m hearing its chinese causing this and i hope the b@stard shorts get burnt!” you point us to an article that has only one line about soybeans and the Chinese:

“China has pulled off one cute little coup in the soybean market but they are playing with fire and I think are going to get seriously burned”.

Is that your evidence that China is shorting the bean market? Anything else? Please tell me there’s more. Please tell me you’re not just repeating what one of your gurus said (right down to the colloquialism "getting burned").

You remind of the Looney Tunes character Chester (the excitable Terrier) who is a fawning sycophant to his hero Spike (the Bulldog), hanging on his every word and action.

You’re so quick to diminish anything anyone else says that you missed an important point. Neither Charlie nor I actually disagreed with you. We just questioned your sources and your odd and/or confusing use of trading terminology. Embarassed? I don’t think so.

But tell me what you mean by:
“As far as the market mechanics of shorting a market or going long(selling-buying futures,buying-selling puts and calls)I guess you either believe this effects price or you dont.”

Is this your way of continuing to say the Chinese were in fact shorting the market or, as I suspect, just your way of trying to make it sound like we don’t know what we’re talking about?

Since frankness seems to be your favoured approach, allow me to be frank with you. You say that you’ve only been studying technicals for a few years and it will take a lot more before you’re a qualified expert. Take it from me, someone who’s been advising both technicals and fundamentals for a lot of years, it shows (especially when you admit you can’t explain rudimentary technical signals and that you felt you had to ask snappy for help).

When I was talking about China in my previous post (as was Charlie, and Snappy, partly) it was along the lines of this comment:

“Rumor overnight that China would release government reserves of soy oil stocks put pressure on the soybean oil market after trading limit up early in the session.”

Note it doesn’t say anything about shorting futures – which was my point. No doubt they could be, but that’s not the point (and besides, we haven’t seen any evidence of it have we?) As an importer they are short already and will gain with the lower market (Charlie’s point). And yes, their comments, leaked or otherwise, were likely more strategic than “honest”.


One last thing, CP – you deftly avoided the discussion you started about the CWB. Is there a reason for that? Are we to believe that you’ve shared all that you know and understand about the CWB and grain marketing?

[chaffmeister]

Chaff, love your advice on marketing!! Too bad you don't actually have the raw product to work with!! But alot easier to give advice when it's not your money. Give me a break!

Also get your head out of the sand. The Chinese have been influencing the market for years. You call it stragetical marketing. I call it spineless ba@#$ds, who won't call a spaid a spaid. But I forgot your take on the CWB Chaff. The CWB supporters have the same spine as the Chinese!!!

[cottonpicken]

Remeber when gold was 375?
I do and the people of this site were saying BUY.

Remeber when oil was 27?
I do and the people of this site were saying BUY.

These guys little fingers know more about the markets than the combined knowledge here.And yes i repeat a lot of what these people say.They talk about things years before mainstream catches on.

If your a technical wizard why havent you spoke up in the past?Why didnt you pipe up when canola made its breakout at 464?You could have helped alot of people.Maybe you should start saying a few things before hand to gain a little credibility.

As far as cwb sales?
If cwb sells 100,000 tonnes below market value-this pulls prices down
If cwb sells above market price this pulls prices up.

Common larry i expected better.

[charliep]

Interesting attitude towards a good customer. My experience is China is good at what they do (which buying product at as a low a price as possible) but fair. That is no different than any farmer on this website who buys inputs, equipment, etc.

Will note the following from a description of the agricultural challenges in China.

Quote: "Grain is the basis of human survival and development. China is a large grain producer and
consumer. The grain issue has a direct bearing on China’s economic development and national security as well as the international grain security. Chinese government always at-taches great importance to the grain issue. Through long-term efforts, China has successfully fed nearly 20% of the world’s population with less than 10% of the world's cultivated land.This is a great contribution China has made to the global grain production and security. Inrecent years, Chinese government has further adopted a series of policies and methods to strengthen the fundamental role of agriculture, and to improve the comprehensive grain productivity."

http://www.chinagrain.gov.cn/english/index.html

[charliep]

Cottonpicken

There is room to put your name in as a moderator area. Go for it.

[LWeber]

Common larry i expected better.

Huh!

How many times have u seen my name on this thread?

[chaffmeister]

Hey Larry.
Give me a call.

[chaffmeister]

Snappy – perhaps I missed your sarcasm, but I didn’t give any marketing advice on this thread.

And thanks for the history lesson on Chinese commodity market tactics. By the way, I didn’t call it “strategic marketing” – I said that their use of information (sending market signals) is “strategic”, meaning it had a purpose other than simply providing information. For what its worth, my comment was not a judgement call on the Chinese (you seem to think I was applauding their efforts). It was just an observation. Don’t try to spin me.


CP – I am utterly amazed that you criticize me because I have not “spoke up in the past”. This is coming from the guy that calls anyone an idiot if they don’t agree with him, understand him or do exactly as he says. Oops – I mean exactly as he says Jim Sinclair says.

Oh yeah – as for helping people, how’s that working for you? You really think telling people they’re idiots helps anyone? You basically say ‘shut up and listen to me’ and then add ‘DYODD’. Isn’t that clever.

The smartest thing you’ve ever posted here is ‘DYODD’. And even that’s not an original thought on your part.


On the CWB, you’ve missed the mark again.

In the interest of the debate, I would still like to hear your response. As the CWB marketing manager, what would YOU do in the scenario I painted? How would you improve the CWB’s performance?

[cottonpicken]

This isnt a cwb thread,this was a market action thread started by snappy.
One of the few that sees the bull staring at us.And i new i should have never mentioned the cwb sales timing.

Sinclair very,very rarley says anything about grain markets.
Just like you.

I dont see how i was out of line relaying the chinese info to this thread.These people are very credible.

So chaffy bite the bullet weres the market going.How did your "key" reversal work for you today.Everythings heading down? For the short/medium/long term?

[charliep]

You can also go to sources like the China Daily newspaper and will find lots of articles on the inflation situation. Example below (date is December).

http://www.china.org.cn/english/GS-e/236452.htm

CBT corn is not $2/bu. It is close to $5.50 ish.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CN/W

Could do the same thing for wheat.

Prices are here because a lot of the news you talk about is in the market. Hate to suggest but if you and I know something, it ain't new information.

If you are 100 % certain prices are going higher and are prepared to take the risk, stay long cash or futures. If you are uncertain about the future, see profit and have bills to pay, then you will have a different strategy. Neither strategy is wrong as long as you are willing to face the consequences.

[chaffmeister]

CP

1. This may not have started as a CWB thread but you pushed it there and are now running from it. Would you answer me in good faith if I started a “CWB thread”? Or would you continue to duck and weave on the topic?

2. Snappy and you are not the only ones that see the bull. I don’t recall reading one bear comment on Agriville in recent memory. You have a singular focus on market action – in a myopic sort of way. Others also consider business applications. Like I said a while back, selling into a bull market is a grain merchant’s dream. Same goes for farmers/producers. Even the best speculators understand this. (Something for you to learn in the coming years.)

The point is that there are many other factors in a market than just chasing the bull. In fact, that’s what makes a market work. You gain nothing in credibility when you chide others for simply doing what is best for them and their own business.

3. My reference to Jim Sinclair was as a metaphor.

4. You weren’t out of line talking about China and its influence on the market. Don't kid yourself – your “people” weren’t the only ones talking about it. But you implied China was shorting the futures market and I questioned that part of your argument. (I still do; you’ve failed to provide supporting evidence. Even the "evidence" you gave doesn’t concur with your position.)

5. So you don’t think I say anything about grain markets. What I think you mean is that I don’t give my opinion about market direction. Been there, done that.

Although this discussion isn’t about me, I will say this: a portion of my current business is providing market expertise in a manner that maximizes (or protects) my clients’ margins while keeping risk at a comfortable level for their culture. These clients understand the benefits and risks of trading this (or any other) bull market – but they have the clarity and wisdom to keep the two (risk management and trading) separate.

In a previous life I worked for a market research and advisory business. On any given day we might tell one client to get full coverage on wheat and another to stand aside. If you can tell me why, you know more about risk management than you're letting on.

6. Key reversal worked just fine; thanks for asking. (It all depends on your trading time frame, doesn’t it?)

[Hopperbin]

Well it will be interesting to know if the Chinese really were shorting the market, if it caused farmer selling, in which case they would be successful. Since no farmer could sell the limit down days and now the market it rising fast, again soy oil early overnight is rising. If the producers did not fall for the price crash and are still holding then it could cost the Chinese lots of money. Again shorts can only be short so long and they have to buy back.

[cottonpicken]

Start a new thread i'll answer.
'what should the cwb do'-thats the question right?

Maybe you were apart of lees famous "at least one marketing agencie is recommending selling 25% of 08 crop at 464".

When you use words like "protect" and "risk management" and "my clients have clarity and wisdom to know this" makes me think your doing a bang up job advising people.

I bet you've takin more than a few nasty phone calls as of late.

Yes i have things to learn,there ALWAYS is,but its nothing compared to the hole you are in.

But go ahead and spin this into another cwb diversion.

[cottonpicken]

Charlie your sort of right,info comes in three stages- in the know,non-mainstream,mainstream.

The only area you can hope to be in and be right,is non-mainstream.
Even then you have to seperate fact from fiction as much or more than mainstream.This takes time and cross-referecing capabilities and broad base knowledge support.Even then you can get hoodwinked or even worse over analyse the situation.

Thats the bad news-now the good.

Pick up a copy of sun tzu's art of war if you dont already have one.The warfare models readily apply to business ones and it is standard reading material to ALL asian business men.

You WILL understand china better.

Their positions of strength are not.

They need us we need them,the people that make the deals on both sides dont care much cause their all rich to begin with.

Canadian manufacturing is dead.
Canadian commodities are booming.

For a long time now.