It will be an ugly couple days ahead!!

[cottonpicken]

This isnt a cwb thread,this was a market action thread started by snappy.
One of the few that sees the bull staring at us.And i new i should have never mentioned the cwb sales timing.

Sinclair very,very rarley says anything about grain markets.
Just like you.

I dont see how i was out of line relaying the chinese info to this thread.These people are very credible.

So chaffy bite the bullet weres the market going.How did your "key" reversal work for you today.Everythings heading down? For the short/medium/long term?

[charliep]

You can also go to sources like the China Daily newspaper and will find lots of articles on the inflation situation. Example below (date is December).

http://www.china.org.cn/english/GS-e/236452.htm

CBT corn is not $2/bu. It is close to $5.50 ish.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CN/W

Could do the same thing for wheat.

Prices are here because a lot of the news you talk about is in the market. Hate to suggest but if you and I know something, it ain't new information.

If you are 100 % certain prices are going higher and are prepared to take the risk, stay long cash or futures. If you are uncertain about the future, see profit and have bills to pay, then you will have a different strategy. Neither strategy is wrong as long as you are willing to face the consequences.

[chaffmeister]

CP

1. This may not have started as a CWB thread but you pushed it there and are now running from it. Would you answer me in good faith if I started a “CWB thread”? Or would you continue to duck and weave on the topic?

2. Snappy and you are not the only ones that see the bull. I don’t recall reading one bear comment on Agriville in recent memory. You have a singular focus on market action – in a myopic sort of way. Others also consider business applications. Like I said a while back, selling into a bull market is a grain merchant’s dream. Same goes for farmers/producers. Even the best speculators understand this. (Something for you to learn in the coming years.)

The point is that there are many other factors in a market than just chasing the bull. In fact, that’s what makes a market work. You gain nothing in credibility when you chide others for simply doing what is best for them and their own business.

3. My reference to Jim Sinclair was as a metaphor.

4. You weren’t out of line talking about China and its influence on the market. Don't kid yourself – your “people” weren’t the only ones talking about it. But you implied China was shorting the futures market and I questioned that part of your argument. (I still do; you’ve failed to provide supporting evidence. Even the "evidence" you gave doesn’t concur with your position.)

5. So you don’t think I say anything about grain markets. What I think you mean is that I don’t give my opinion about market direction. Been there, done that.

Although this discussion isn’t about me, I will say this: a portion of my current business is providing market expertise in a manner that maximizes (or protects) my clients’ margins while keeping risk at a comfortable level for their culture. These clients understand the benefits and risks of trading this (or any other) bull market – but they have the clarity and wisdom to keep the two (risk management and trading) separate.

In a previous life I worked for a market research and advisory business. On any given day we might tell one client to get full coverage on wheat and another to stand aside. If you can tell me why, you know more about risk management than you're letting on.

6. Key reversal worked just fine; thanks for asking. (It all depends on your trading time frame, doesn’t it?)

[Hopperbin]

Well it will be interesting to know if the Chinese really were shorting the market, if it caused farmer selling, in which case they would be successful. Since no farmer could sell the limit down days and now the market it rising fast, again soy oil early overnight is rising. If the producers did not fall for the price crash and are still holding then it could cost the Chinese lots of money. Again shorts can only be short so long and they have to buy back.

[cottonpicken]

Start a new thread i'll answer.
'what should the cwb do'-thats the question right?

Maybe you were apart of lees famous "at least one marketing agencie is recommending selling 25% of 08 crop at 464".

When you use words like "protect" and "risk management" and "my clients have clarity and wisdom to know this" makes me think your doing a bang up job advising people.

I bet you've takin more than a few nasty phone calls as of late.

Yes i have things to learn,there ALWAYS is,but its nothing compared to the hole you are in.

But go ahead and spin this into another cwb diversion.

[cottonpicken]

Charlie your sort of right,info comes in three stages- in the know,non-mainstream,mainstream.

The only area you can hope to be in and be right,is non-mainstream.
Even then you have to seperate fact from fiction as much or more than mainstream.This takes time and cross-referecing capabilities and broad base knowledge support.Even then you can get hoodwinked or even worse over analyse the situation.

Thats the bad news-now the good.

Pick up a copy of sun tzu's art of war if you dont already have one.The warfare models readily apply to business ones and it is standard reading material to ALL asian business men.

You WILL understand china better.

Their positions of strength are not.

They need us we need them,the people that make the deals on both sides dont care much cause their all rich to begin with.

Canadian manufacturing is dead.
Canadian commodities are booming.

For a long time now.

[charliep]

Hopperbin,

Apologize for the fishing analogy but sometimes the fish are deeper in the water and you have to sink the hook to find them. Today, I suspect the market may a spot where the commercials (including the Chinese) are willing to start buying to cover their cash purchase needs. No one wants to be short this summer at least least until there is some certainty around crop size. Suspect the funds want to be long as well.

Cottonpicken - Not negative this market. Am curler and enjoying the brier. Note the best teams also have good guards in place after lead - my grain analogy would be having the first 25 % of the crop priced. If really want to make your money as a consultant, you have some advice on when to buy calls or heavan forbid, replace your 2008 deferred delivery with a long futures position. If this was curling, it would be called a raise. Not suggesting by the way. As Zaphod, I would be trading this market like a long tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs. But then, I am not a risk taker.

[chaffmeister]

CP: Maybe you were apart of lees famous "at least one marketing agencie is recommending selling 25% of 08 crop at 464".

CHAFF: Nope. I don’t work with farmers on this stuff. (I work with farmers on other things – like the CWB policy “Gong Show”.) (But I certainly agree with the approach of selling a portion of you crop at what sure seems to me to be a profit. (Trade like a cowboy but manage the farm like a business...)

CP: When you use words like "protect" and "risk management" and "my clients have clarity and wisdom to know this" makes me think your doing a bang up job advising people.

CHAFF: This really isn’t about me, so I’ll be brief. First, I’m not an “advisor”. (Keep fishing...) And second: yes, my clients like what we’ve been doing. I won't say any more.

CP: I bet you've takin more than a few nasty phone calls as of late.

CHAFF: You wish. (It would all make so much sense (to you) to have a guy (like me) who bugs you so much, to get some back, wouldn’t it?) I’m sorry to disappoint you….

CP: Yes i have things to learn,there ALWAYS is,but its nothing compared to the hole you are in.

CHAFF: Hole? What hole? Remember, my clients aren’t farmers. (Keep fishing…)


I know a guy who worked for a multinational company. One year, through some brilliant trading, he made gobs of money for them. But instead of a big bonus, after reviewing/auditing his year, they thanked him for the huge profits and fired him. Seems he took on too much risk for the company’s appetite.

Sincere question, CP: Does that make any sense to you?

[cottonpicken]

Oh boy a riddle wrapped in a puzzle surronded by an enigma.

You keep telling everyone here about the past and i'll keep telling them about the future.

[chaffmeister]

CP - forever dodging and weaving, eh? You made of teflon? When you're made to think on your own, you just put up the ol' smokescreen.

I asked a sincere question you missed. How you reply to this (or not) will speak volumes about you, but I'll give you another crack at it....

I know a guy who worked for a multinational company. One year, through some brilliant trading, he made gobs of money for them. But instead of a big bonus, after reviewing/auditing his year, they thanked him for the huge profits and fired him. Seems he took on too much risk for the company’s appetite.

Sincere question, CP: Does that make any sense to you?