Will farmers Increase Acres for HRS in 08?

[SASKFARMER3]

Just wondering if most farmers are going to increase HRS acreage in 08. See I got my latest Check from our CWB and to my surprise were still not at $6.00 a bushel for last years crop. Yet the CWB is asking $17.25 in Vancouver for the product since December. So if I take 4.50 and 17.25 divide by two = $10.87 - freight 1.70 = 9.17 our latest PRO. Now I am no genius like the CWB staff who come up with their calculations but to me it looks like they gave our special customers and Canadian millers 1/3 of our grain at 4.50 and now are trying to make up ground in the final months with the remainder to get us a 1/2 decent price.
So here is my predicament since last year after the spring frost in USA I switched back my Barley and Oats extra Acres to HRS.
This should have been by all means my biggest year for HRS prices in My life time. I had to fert extra and spray for midge and then disease and finally desiccate so the crop made it without freezing yet for all the extra work Ill be lucky to come out with a small profit.
So as we sit down to decide what to grow in 08 I am really wondering if its worth the problem. Yes I know one weather scare any where and were way over what we saw last month. And right now its looking like China with their drought in North and India and Pakistan with theirs and US south dry and Southern Sask and Alberta Dry yes it could get their.
But we have one problem in Western Canada and I know Its like beating a dead horse but if the CWB couldn't get us a decent return in 07 will it happen again 09.
I am sitting on the fence with 1000 acres of HRS that is going to either Barley at $6.25 Cash Plus (Cargil at $6.40 but I have to guarantee that its Malt) or Oats at today's price of $3.70
I need at least $9.50 out of wheat on the price side just to match the other two add in extra costs and its at $12.00.
Just wondering what others are thinking.

[SASKFARMER3]

I meant 08 instead of 09, and that's 1000 out of 3000 acres of HRS.

[SASKFARMER3]

How does Wheat look if your barley is feed??

[wmoebis]

I agree SK3.

If I were you I wouldn't grow one acre of WHT. I would't like selling getting the average yearly price that my marketing arm is getting.

For me I don't like growing lentils. It is too hard on my machinery and I don't want to invest in costly new stuff.

I never seem to consistantly hit the top market anyway. So I'm not growing one acre of lentils.

[furrowtickler]

when you look at the fpc's for hrs and cps and run the numbers - cps at this time is a clear winner again.
In our area if hrs runs 40, cps will run 60.

[TOM4CWB]

Saskfarmer3,

We need some REAL structural changes in CWB pricing policies... it is certainly within the capabilities of the CWB to make these.

With Ian White providing NEW leadership April 1, I really hope (for the sake of my family) we can get the job done and move into a new pricing era that is transparent and responsive.

We had all better say an extra prayer... and repent of our corruption (Master Chairman Ritter and Prof. Earl kept saying we had too much high quality wheat in the Provost meeting)... so that the dry weather and extra heat that could easily cook our 08 crop... is mitigated and put aside!

[SASKFARMER3]

furrow Yes if HRS goes 40 Cps is 60 and durum is 55.
Did numbers but have had problems with CPS in past Was gone by xmas but didn't pay like durum.
Tom hopefully their will be changes that work for us that want out.
Lentils and they hurt my combine give me a break we cant grow them because of excess moisture. Grow peas at 9.25 a bushel they pay. Combine costs this year after harvest were $2400.00 for the two that's after all crops and done at local Deere dealer.

[rbgordon]

Back in 2000 to 2002, planted 1000 - 1200 acres of HRS, have gradually reduced wheat acres, in 2008 there will be no wheat planted on our farm.
The main reason for not growing wheat is the poor returns the CWB has obtained compared to non-board crops. Unlike producers in the southern grainbelt, we are fortunate here in the Northeast to be able to grow high value cash crops like canola, oats, peas and feed barley with marketing freedom. When wheat is removed from the controls of the CWB, we will grow it again.

[Southpaw]

Never sowed any HRS in 07 and will not be sowing any in 08. There are two reasons, first HRS returns the lowest of any of our crops in 07 as well as 08 and the second is that I have no control over who I can sell MY grain to. Screw the CWB.