So at $500 a ton Canola how many acres will We have in 2013!

[mbratrud]

Spidey senses tingling that again these drops are healthy and only fuel demand. Soybean, Canola export pace way ahead of targets, this does nothing to slow that down. Personally I think it would be healthy to see $500 Canola for awhile. I still think Oilseeds have the potential to be VERY tight by late Spring.

Much talk about Corn falling below $7 per bushel…. Holy shit guys since when does corn have to be above $7 to not be bearish?? I really think Corn needs to go to $5 and that would be a good thing long term. I get the sense from some Market Analysts that we need $7 Corn to have $14 Soybeans Really?? Short Memories I guess.

Now having said I wouldn’t want to be extremely long Canola or Beans but I’m comfortable with 25% left to sell. And I am also feeling satisfied I haven’t expanded my farm at $90 / acre rent.

I guess to sum up what I am trying to say is that if $5 Corn $12 Beans and $500 Canola and $7 Wheat Concern you your too long….. But I also think this book still has a few chapters.

[Partners]

Same rotation, its a long way from the crop being in the bin for 2013..

[TOM4CWB]

WD9,

Buyers are getting a taste of grower freeze on Canola
sales. Basis has lowered on nearby wheat as the prices
drops.

Will be interesting to see what happens after jan 2 as
folks start selling again... but scads of deferred
cheques will be cashed Jan 2... so perhaps it will be a
Nonevent!

[groundspeed]

I call it the christmas blues. This time of year the markets seem to go down then buisness as usual in the new year. Im gonna bet that canola will remain strong this winter as supplies gradually get less. By spring there could be some good rallys especially if weather problems start to happen. Around here there were alot of crappy canola crops, dont think theres alot of it on the farms.

[errolanderson]

SF3 . . . This is a global market.

Harsh reality is; world doesn't much care
about the cost of production in Western
Canada.

[mbratrud]

Back to the topic... Sorry for above
post! Ha ha. Rant... Canola acres will
drop forsure mostly doe to rotation I
think. 19 - 19.5 M Acres?

[SASKFARMER3]

Errol I know its a global market.
But china and India got Potash corp to drop their pants and take one for the team.
If farmers used their heads instead of buying becasue the companies tell them to they would be on their knees also.
How low do you see us going and will it start to effect seeded acreage.

[GreenValley]

Errol, here reflashback to Dec 14 2011
on promarket wire. You said, Feed
Barley: Sell, sell, sell your cash
barley. High-priced barley is now being
replaced by lower priced wheat in
rations.

Well u word is too strong for my father
believe in you and he fall in you. But I
don't so I wait after normal Christmas
blue blah blah is over. On Jan/Feb feed
barley soar back up. So ur prediction is
wrong.
And from now won't renew of ur
subscription of ur bullshit market
prowire ever. I don't know if u been in
drunk from Christmas party. lol or
perhaps work for trader.

[charliep]

mbratrud

I agree. That would produce a 14 to 15 MMT canola crop based on average yields.

Your big question will be vegetable oil prices and perhaps a distance second crude oil prices (still tied to biodiesel).

Will let others answer the question on agronomics/profitability but soybeans have greater downside than canola. Just an issue of soybean meal is at record prices. You have to argue that meal prices will stay high with the South American production and the demand side rationing factors over the next 6 months.

I sense a lot of tension among some here. Others will have sold this fall at higher prices, paid down bills, bought new crop fertilizer and heavan forbid, will pay tax. I think I would rather be in the latter category but that is just me and based on hind sight. Been around too many people would think that want to play the market. Been around others who focus on making money.

[SASKFARMER3]

Wd our rotation is 10 total 4 canola 4 hrs 2
divided peas oats barley.
I think the 2013 values will be
6 hrs
11 to 12 canola
3 oats
7 peas
4 barley

[bucket]

SF3

Are you thinking the same as me?

If china isn't buying fertilizers like potash, are their yields going up or down?

Does this create demand for our grains?

Have they finally sent a message to the potash producers that they can't give them 300 dollars per tonne more than its actually worth? For reference, it only costs 190 bucks a tonne to put finished potash product (this includes the mining refining and transport costs) into a boat at vancouver. Current potash price is 600 locally.

If potash corp doesn't show good sales, its not because production costs or royalty costs have gone up , its because their warehouses are stuffed and they are not selling any. Any other excuse is a lie to the shareholders?

They could sell for quite a bit less and still be making money.

[errolanderson]

SF3 - what is happening right now is a
shock to western Cdn growers. But we
have seen this before. Bull markets
don't last because prices are pushed
above their true fundamental value by
excessive spec buying during growing
seasons. As a result, when markets get
kicked, they really get kicked.

Right now, the grains now look
excessively oversold technically. But
they may lick their wounds for a spell.
Fund activity makes this very difficult
to call.

In the new year, grain markets hopefully
should recover, but to re-energise these
markets will have to come from other
parts of the world and fresh bullish
news. Canada has little influence in
this matter.

Greenvalley, I apologize for upsetting
you about the harshness of cost of
production . . . but this is true.
Global markets don't care. Just look at
the Cdn cattle feeding industry right
now or our hog industry.

When markets rock 'n roll, emotions
flare. Suspect volatility may cool off
possible as early as tomorrow.

an interesting start to 2013 . . . .

Errol

[Burbert]

Greedy framers, having tasted good
canolie prices this year, will agin
plant canolie. They'll buy the high
priced seed, wit a silver bullet
promise, fertilized the sh-t outta it.
Grow it agin on canolie stubble. There
is a scramble to run this cinderella
crop inta the dirt, butt lets all git
what we kin outta it, while the gettin
is good. Clubber is spreading, beetles,
worms, fungus, butt who cares, lets get
our share, before its all gone. Beans
no way ta grow in the north........

[hobbyfrmr]

Well, sadly....I have to agree with Burbert. And it takes me alot to agree with Burbert.
Most guys have already pre bought the seed because of the false perception of a "shortage" in the spring put on by the suppliers. Farmers bought it, they are going to plant it.
After all, young farmers need more cash flow than ever. Which other crop offers that much of a...chance... at such good money?
We are a generation of spenders. Its more in style to complain/brag about $265-350/acre on canola input costs than just growing a lower cost oat crop for the same profit. Oats are just not as sexy as canola. Northern farms just cannot grow soybeans until there are varieties developed for lower CHU. I do not see any reduction in Canola seeded acres.

[charliep]

I have never considered being profitable greedy but maybe it is. A common theme is that knowing of production and doing sensitivity analysis around different yield and price scenarios is an important part of the decision about what to grow. That also includes crop and herbicide rotation.

An call of the land a co-worker did highlights your comments on oats and canola. That decision starts with doing a your homework. Not something somthing you yell about on Agriville. Just some time on your computer.

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