So at $500 a ton Canola how many acres will We have in 2013!

[SASKFARMER3]

2007 at Christmas SA had issues that weren't
been reported farmers down their emailed north
things were bad. This year except for Argentina
not been done seeding brazil is doing ok, little dry
next 10 days but fine.

[bucket]

On a thread below, hopperbin was referring to a report that said the soybean crush in Argentina was coming to a standstill or at the least to interim running because there is a shortage of beans down south.

One would think those orders will be filled first with this giant crop coming out of Brazil.

What puzzles me, is one day we are running low and the next day the world is flush with crops.

On my farm, if the bins are empty on July 1st, they don't get re-filled on July 2nd automatically, physically impossible.

[wd9]

The same acres SF3, ever hear of a little
thing called crop rotation?

[mbratrud]

Spidey senses tingling that again these drops are healthy and only fuel demand. Soybean, Canola export pace way ahead of targets, this does nothing to slow that down. Personally I think it would be healthy to see $500 Canola for awhile. I still think Oilseeds have the potential to be VERY tight by late Spring.

Much talk about Corn falling below $7 per bushel…. Holy shit guys since when does corn have to be above $7 to not be bearish?? I really think Corn needs to go to $5 and that would be a good thing long term. I get the sense from some Market Analysts that we need $7 Corn to have $14 Soybeans Really?? Short Memories I guess.

Now having said I wouldn’t want to be extremely long Canola or Beans but I’m comfortable with 25% left to sell. And I am also feeling satisfied I haven’t expanded my farm at $90 / acre rent.

I guess to sum up what I am trying to say is that if $5 Corn $12 Beans and $500 Canola and $7 Wheat Concern you your too long….. But I also think this book still has a few chapters.

[Partners]

Same rotation, its a long way from the crop being in the bin for 2013..

[TOM4CWB]

WD9,

Buyers are getting a taste of grower freeze on Canola
sales. Basis has lowered on nearby wheat as the prices
drops.

Will be interesting to see what happens after jan 2 as
folks start selling again... but scads of deferred
cheques will be cashed Jan 2... so perhaps it will be a
Nonevent!

[groundspeed]

I call it the christmas blues. This time of year the markets seem to go down then buisness as usual in the new year. Im gonna bet that canola will remain strong this winter as supplies gradually get less. By spring there could be some good rallys especially if weather problems start to happen. Around here there were alot of crappy canola crops, dont think theres alot of it on the farms.

[errolanderson]

SF3 . . . This is a global market.

Harsh reality is; world doesn't much care
about the cost of production in Western
Canada.

[mbratrud]

Back to the topic... Sorry for above
post! Ha ha. Rant... Canola acres will
drop forsure mostly doe to rotation I
think. 19 - 19.5 M Acres?

[SASKFARMER3]

Errol I know its a global market.
But china and India got Potash corp to drop their pants and take one for the team.
If farmers used their heads instead of buying becasue the companies tell them to they would be on their knees also.
How low do you see us going and will it start to effect seeded acreage.

[GreenValley]

Errol, here reflashback to Dec 14 2011
on promarket wire. You said, Feed
Barley: Sell, sell, sell your cash
barley. High-priced barley is now being
replaced by lower priced wheat in
rations.

Well u word is too strong for my father
believe in you and he fall in you. But I
don't so I wait after normal Christmas
blue blah blah is over. On Jan/Feb feed
barley soar back up. So ur prediction is
wrong.
And from now won't renew of ur
subscription of ur bullshit market
prowire ever. I don't know if u been in
drunk from Christmas party. lol or
perhaps work for trader.

[charliep]

mbratrud

I agree. That would produce a 14 to 15 MMT canola crop based on average yields.

Your big question will be vegetable oil prices and perhaps a distance second crude oil prices (still tied to biodiesel).

Will let others answer the question on agronomics/profitability but soybeans have greater downside than canola. Just an issue of soybean meal is at record prices. You have to argue that meal prices will stay high with the South American production and the demand side rationing factors over the next 6 months.

I sense a lot of tension among some here. Others will have sold this fall at higher prices, paid down bills, bought new crop fertilizer and heavan forbid, will pay tax. I think I would rather be in the latter category but that is just me and based on hind sight. Been around too many people would think that want to play the market. Been around others who focus on making money.