So at $500 a ton Canola how many acres will We have in 2013!

[SASKFARMER3]

Wd our rotation is 10 total 4 canola 4 hrs 2
divided peas oats barley.
I think the 2013 values will be
6 hrs
11 to 12 canola
3 oats
7 peas
4 barley

[bucket]

SF3

Are you thinking the same as me?

If china isn't buying fertilizers like potash, are their yields going up or down?

Does this create demand for our grains?

Have they finally sent a message to the potash producers that they can't give them 300 dollars per tonne more than its actually worth? For reference, it only costs 190 bucks a tonne to put finished potash product (this includes the mining refining and transport costs) into a boat at vancouver. Current potash price is 600 locally.

If potash corp doesn't show good sales, its not because production costs or royalty costs have gone up , its because their warehouses are stuffed and they are not selling any. Any other excuse is a lie to the shareholders?

They could sell for quite a bit less and still be making money.

[errolanderson]

SF3 - what is happening right now is a
shock to western Cdn growers. But we
have seen this before. Bull markets
don't last because prices are pushed
above their true fundamental value by
excessive spec buying during growing
seasons. As a result, when markets get
kicked, they really get kicked.

Right now, the grains now look
excessively oversold technically. But
they may lick their wounds for a spell.
Fund activity makes this very difficult
to call.

In the new year, grain markets hopefully
should recover, but to re-energise these
markets will have to come from other
parts of the world and fresh bullish
news. Canada has little influence in
this matter.

Greenvalley, I apologize for upsetting
you about the harshness of cost of
production . . . but this is true.
Global markets don't care. Just look at
the Cdn cattle feeding industry right
now or our hog industry.

When markets rock 'n roll, emotions
flare. Suspect volatility may cool off
possible as early as tomorrow.

an interesting start to 2013 . . . .

Errol

[Burbert]

Greedy framers, having tasted good
canolie prices this year, will agin
plant canolie. They'll buy the high
priced seed, wit a silver bullet
promise, fertilized the sh-t outta it.
Grow it agin on canolie stubble. There
is a scramble to run this cinderella
crop inta the dirt, butt lets all git
what we kin outta it, while the gettin
is good. Clubber is spreading, beetles,
worms, fungus, butt who cares, lets get
our share, before its all gone. Beans
no way ta grow in the north........

[hobbyfrmr]

Well, sadly....I have to agree with Burbert. And it takes me alot to agree with Burbert.
Most guys have already pre bought the seed because of the false perception of a "shortage" in the spring put on by the suppliers. Farmers bought it, they are going to plant it.
After all, young farmers need more cash flow than ever. Which other crop offers that much of a...chance... at such good money?
We are a generation of spenders. Its more in style to complain/brag about $265-350/acre on canola input costs than just growing a lower cost oat crop for the same profit. Oats are just not as sexy as canola. Northern farms just cannot grow soybeans until there are varieties developed for lower CHU. I do not see any reduction in Canola seeded acres.

[charliep]

I have never considered being profitable greedy but maybe it is. A common theme is that knowing of production and doing sensitivity analysis around different yield and price scenarios is an important part of the decision about what to grow. That also includes crop and herbicide rotation.

An call of the land a co-worker did highlights your comments on oats and canola. That decision starts with doing a your homework. Not something somthing you yell about on Agriville. Just some time on your computer.

[URL="http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/newslett.nsf/all/cotl20279"]Agriprofit[/URL]

[hobbyfrmr]

Ok, well then I only loosely agree with Burbert. I dont think of profitablility as greed. I am not yelling about it, I thought I had suggested an alternative, being oats, or other crops that require some legwork as you describe. I still do not anticipate a decrease in seeded acres and stand by that opinion.
I am willing to bet SF3 has already bought the seed to plant soy's retarded cousin canola. I suspect its already in their shed at home!

[charliep]

Just pulling your leg as well. My basic idea is most farmers are good managers and will make good decisions based on analysis of their individual situation.

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Charlie,

"My basic idea is most farmers are good managers and will make good decisions based on analysis of their individual situation."

If farmers are NOT good managers... they are not farmers for long.

There are ten people each day that want our funds... and if a manager is NOT on top of being productive and efficient... they are toast.

Canola At $500/t... and corn at WHAT SF3?

[wd9]

Charlie, greedy in farming is canola
canola canola wheat canola canola....

[SASKFARMER3]

Tommy Boy $5.50 Corn. What if SA does grow the crop their braging about. Where will Canola. Be
Big drop wont come back till Mid Jan then has one month to climb then SA Stories will start to come out and USDA seeding intentions etc.
Its a short time to recover.
But answer the Question what will acreage be if Canola goes to 500.
Simple question. Dont analyse my farm!
Just answer the question where will canola acreage be in Spring 2013 if we hit 500 ton canola.

[Daylate]

I predict, down 10-15% in Sask.
Manitoba down 15%
Alberta down 0-5%

How many acres is that roughly?