So at $500 a ton Canola how many acres will We have in 2013!

[charliep]

Versus 2012, that would be down about 2 million acres or about 19 million acres. Based on a 33 bu/acre yield, that would production of about 14.25 million tonnes.

[Daylate]

So stiill not bullish. Question is where is milling wheat if canola is at 500. I'm getting nervous about that and thinking about 2013 wheat to lock in. I think wheat will move down, and canola wont have to fight for acres by beginning of Feb.(hopefully we have till then for wheat)Just my rambling thoughts, lol

[bucket]

charliep

What happens if it is 19 million acres next year but the dryness and a normal weather pattern comes to the prairies. Lets use the same BPA as last year.

19 million acres at 28bpa or .635 tpa equals a 12.1MMt crop.

Between you and I we now have a range of production of 12.1 to 14.25. If we split the difference, next years crop runs in at 13MMt.

I heard today that the carryover of canola will be well under 500,000mt by july of 2013.

Anything under 1mmt is said to be bullish for canola prices.

Your thoughts?

[charliep]

None really. Pick your poison based on your assumptions. My only question is can you have 50 cent/lb CBT soybean, a par loonie and $600/tonne plus canola.

If I were to hedge 2013 crop, it wouldn't be because I felt I can forecast. I would locked in new crop because I recognized I can't forcast the future and because canola are historically high, profitable, you need cash flow next fall, short bin space, worried about storability, etc, etc, etc. There are tools in the tool box to reverse this position if the market takes off.

Your business. Your choice.

[charliep]

should be 50 cent/lb soybean oil. Do you see a rally in world vegetable oil prices?

[westsider]

i will disagree with SF3 because he is not a bull nor a bear but the other animal in the old saying that is always getting slaughtered

i will agree with Mbratrud. We need healthy corrections. this is one at a historically prevalent time. world macro's to me are looking better than they have in quite some time.
the traders have all left for Christmas hence the thin trade.

lets all relax and remember this downward revision in the first or second week of January, when we look back and realize just how much more demand these lower values have created.

[Burbert]

Charlie, clubroot areas are growing in
Alberta, due to what? Good sound
angribusiness? Its because of greed, or
making a profit, guess both are the same
in Comedian framing. Whatever ya wanna
call it, the golden goose'll soon be
plucked once canolie is totally infested
with clubroot. Course clubroot moves
via dirt spread around, not by poor gag
operations er does it. Maybe the spores
are being scattered in seed, grown, who
knows where?

[LWeber]

December 19 CME Volume Report.

"hence the thin trade"

Don't think so....

Bean volume today was 253,304 and 52% over yearly daily average. There were 34.468 million tonnes of bean futures contracts that traded today. This from a country projected to have 3.54 MMT left at year end.

Estimated bean volume for December 20 was 298,471 contracts.

Corn volume was 224,209 and 15% over the daily average. 28.476 MMT.

Estimated December 20 volume was 262,306 contracts.

Hardly thin trade...

[westsider]

commercials

look it up

[LWeber]

lol...i'll do that

you look up the definition of thin trade.

[SASKFARMER3]

If SA grows a decent or large crop and if the USA winter wheat crop gets going in spring and the USA gets some water next year by the time we harvest it will be UGLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bucket]

10 inch soil moisture deficit in the corn bely and people think that winter storm solved the problem.

My best guess says corn yields might hit 130bpa. More acres but the acres coming in are non-traditional acres, tey are chasing the dream.

If the drought expands, it won't be pretty for sure.