So at $500 a ton Canola how many acres will We have in 2013!

[SASKFARMER3]

Canola is 70 dollars away from 500 a ton. I have a real good question for all you new canola growers. How many acres will be seeded to the Retarded cousin of Soy in 2013.
Our once great crop has been reduced to a shit show.
Can you say next year will be close to 10 or less. Cash flow 125 an acre growing this crop.
Welcome to the reality that 2013 is going to be a very very interesting year.
Oh are all our inputs way to expensive.
China and India just Nailed Potash Corp. WHy are we as farmers buying~

[SASKFARMER3]

Throw in a couple hot hot days in July and yields in Non traditional areas are 12 to 18 boy it makes for interesting times.

[SASKFARMER3]

Better sell the over priced yard tractor, won't be an grass to cut or garden to mulch

F**k man do you ever complain

[SASKFARMER3]

I guess what I am getting at with the last few posts is did we see the peak of Fert, Seed, Land, Rent, Equipment. All in November of 2012.
Isnt it funny how positive news the markets keep going lower. I disagree with Errol but boy the last few weeks have got me starting to wonder if maybe he will be right.
Maybe prebuying all Fert and Seed is a huge mistake this year. Like the year Pike said buy buy in July.
Lot

[SASKFARMER3]

Sask99 it's not complaining, explain on your farm
how many acres will you seed if we hit 500. I don't
care how much you forward priced. Just how
many acres will a farm grow if canola doesn't
wake up.

[SASKFARMER3]

At 500 how much canola will be seeded?
Simple question, why are some of you afraid to
answer it!
It's not complaining it might be reality.

[charliep]

Your challenge will be that $11/bu canola will equate
to $4/bu feed barley, $5/bu malt and $6 to $7/bu
wheat depending on quality.

I would concentrate on old crop and leave new crop
slide for the moment. I also like the idea of spending
a little money on premiums for options or minimum
price contracts if I were bullish. Not a year I would
shake the dice on price 100 % on every up and down
of the market. But I have a lower risk tolerance and
less equity than you guys do. Go for it. Stay long
and play the game of poker you love.

I see comments on Brazils ability to perform. I would
never underestimate the ability of any of our
competitors to perform/do the right things to move
soybeans. Lots of challenges but don't underestimate
their creativity/ability to get things done. South
America has not got where it are today by sitting on
their butts doing nothing or being innovative . The
Argentine government has done their best to take
buzz of soybeans via their policy and these farmers
have adapted. A part to farmers common ability.

[charliep]

Oh I just like giving you a hard time. Maybe its just your tone of the posts you make.

We will not change our canola acres for 2013 and no crop is priced. We are also sitting on about 60% of last years crop unpriced and all of Cwrs. Watching very closely but not worried.

I think its all smoke and mirrors and I don't get excited with what I read/hear this time of year.

[charliep]

I don't know how you guys get the link to work but this comes to mind. Enjoy the very famous movie

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI4fVgVVpiw

[ASRG]

If all the farmers panic and run to wheat...what will that do to wheat prices? canola prices?
Usually following a good rotation will be better than chasing the latest fad.

[SASKFARMER3]

Sask your sitting like us except I liquidated hrs
early for good price priced in July.
But my whole world is I like to shake up things.
So that's why I ask where will canola acres be at
500 ton.
Right now were in holding patern on acreage with
500 acre drop from this year.
Yeas good rotation does help.
Just a very simple question. I think needs to be
asked. Because under the fert latest BS, price is
based on canola price not natural gas is now kind
of BS. Fert should be 20% less than last year.

[bucket]

I don't know, but looking at a 2007 december canola chart we were lower then and then it exploded in January and february 2008.

Not saying it will happen but all the experts say history repeats itself.


If the canola crush industry took a hard look at what is going on, they might want to start looking for buyers of their plants because I am with SF3 on this, sub 12 bucks a bushel makes for severely reduced acres for 2013.

I remember this spring when I needed a few bags of canola and no retailer had any but when I returning totes, there were pallets of returned canola seed. People overbook, the industry reads this as acres seeded and when the seed is returned its not re-counted as reduced acres, just rebagged for next year.

And the industry knows they are short canola already come april-july 2013.

[SASKFARMER3]

2007 at Christmas SA had issues that weren't
been reported farmers down their emailed north
things were bad. This year except for Argentina
not been done seeding brazil is doing ok, little dry
next 10 days but fine.

[bucket]

On a thread below, hopperbin was referring to a report that said the soybean crush in Argentina was coming to a standstill or at the least to interim running because there is a shortage of beans down south.

One would think those orders will be filled first with this giant crop coming out of Brazil.

What puzzles me, is one day we are running low and the next day the world is flush with crops.

On my farm, if the bins are empty on July 1st, they don't get re-filled on July 2nd automatically, physically impossible.

[wd9]

The same acres SF3, ever hear of a little
thing called crop rotation?