Hypothetical Nightmare

[BTO_farmall]

Beans, Beans, Beans, And More Beans, Everything Corn/Beans Comin!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TOM4CWB]

vvalk,

There have been tough years for many in the last 5.

Low 20's on Canola... frost in spring on 10th of June
killing 50 percent for 3 years... minus 10... then nailed
in early Sept with minus 10 again. Only 93 days of
growing time. Sample Canola on top.

For us 2012 was the first year in many we had a good
canola stand here . 3 years we had germs down below
85 percent on seed production as well. Many flooding
years in Sk.

[hobbyfrmr]

Vvalk,

I always made income it was usually enough to
obdiently pay costs of production, which were
always borrowed money. I did not live on very
much profit, no changes in machinery. Agreed,
the last 6 years have been much improved.
The ag industry has also stayed very tuned to
these gains and are taking as much as the market
will bear.
Buyers/end users do not like high grain prices. If
they pay too much for grains, they it interferes
with wages, and taxes. The more money than can
be made on a bushel of grains, the more
corporate and labourers income taxes.
Any one of those things that cotton described
above can be conspired and it would really put a
hurt on farms. I really don't think farmers are as
extremely well off as perceived by the general
public. One thing I have noticed in my area is,
when people my age find themselves dealing with
the farming parents' estates, no one wants to
farm, but everyone wants the farm.

[Horse]

Wealth is an relative thing I feel wealthy and probably have less than a lot who feel poverty riden. I enjoyed working outdoors with livestock , not punching time clocks and going fishing or hunting when I felt like it, even if it did mean doing chores after dark .
But I sure wouldnt mind if I was to be paid for my labour like those who do punch timeclocks and say how much every time the boss says shit.
I do think if I got a doover I would cerntaly change some parts of my life.

[hobbyfrmr]

Horse,

The only Boss you listen to is Bruce Springsteen. LOL

[dubsy]

We over inoculated 20 acres at end of field to
finish off the inoculate and it prolonged maturity
big time

[Oliver88]

I can't see nightmare #2 happening. Interest rates
won't be rising too quickly if the US, Japan and
Southern Europe have financial issues.

[TOM4CWB]

dubsy,

Of course I am not saying don't innoculate at all... you are bang on.

The School of hard knocks needs to be shared so others need not experience the pain we did... especially if testing the northern boundries of soy production in Canada! 100 ac grown/invested for us... 300 bu of shriveled green soys... suitable for sheep feed only! Great for those in 2012 that got 30bu/ac... vs ours that went 3 using best light sensitive varieties!

Cheers!

[wilagro]

cottonpicken: You said to call you "paranoid"...well okay...you ARE paranoid.

Don't worry so much...your buddy Ritz will be there for you and if he can't help then there is always the big BOSS...Harper.

If things get real bad then they can always turn the pesky Agrivulture industry over to some Chinese conglomerate for thirty-one years to get it running as it should be.

[cottonpicken]

Lol,probably the fact i lost my last 2 crops AFTER a
66% percent land/machinery expansion that keeps my
eyes on the horizon for storms coming.

[hobbyfrmr]

cotton,

your circumstance reminds me of when I was 15 yrs old, all keen on farming and tractor driving. My 60 yr old Dad and another "old guy" small talking at the elevator. These guys were "cash" farmers and that was all changing. They were acknowledging the changes in ag and loosely contemplating the future. The one old farmer looked at me and said "you are going to have to keep one eye on the sky, and another eye on the banker."
He was right!

[Hopperbin]

what the hell would actually happen if interest rates would quadriple? Land rent up??? Cause Don't want to go there.

[Hopperbin]

When I was buying land and renting I was looking at interest rates only when deciding to rent or buy. In my history land prices have not never gone down abruptly, it takes a long time for land prices to go down or stagnate. When interest rates go up rent goes up. Am I right or am I right.

[cottonpicken]

Its a good point and you are right in the historical
perspective of the early 80"s.

Once we start seeing capital flight from japan and
europe and the states i'm afraid i am right and the
hypithetical becomes reality lets pray the grains
inflation rate is higher than our cost of production
but i can easily see a canadian farmer being
uncompetitive.