Canola stratagey

[highwayman]

Had two grain companies yesterday trying hard to persuade us to sell spot canola at 14 tied to same tonnage of new crop at 12 for sept. Didn't bite and today had two different TPAs trigger at 14plus/bus with line companies for jan/feb delivery without committing any new crop. Just maybe the worm is about to turn on grain prices. Patience grasshopper.

[SASKFARMER3]

Not cutting any one down but why the hell would you guarantee them a supply for fall at 12 a bushel. Really!
They love it when farmers fall all over them selves to sell because they don't want to store it.

[bucket]

SF3

I was laughing at my own stupidity but at the time 12 bucks seemed like a good price. Plus I will take it off at higher moisture and green counts just to get going. Let them worry about it.

Besides didn't you tell us a story about some heated canola awhile back?

I notice TPA are being picked up at 14.

If it punches through that level inside of a week it could be 2008 all over again.

Still, 14 was too good to pass on. The rest can average up a bit.

Its better than the old way and avaeraging down for 18 months.

[SASKFARMER3]

My heated stuff is from 2004 frost year.
Yes getting going sooner is an advantage. But is 12 a decent price given where we have been or are we just feeding them.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes the fall sale at $14.50 was a good thing. But the Jan sale at 14 took down the average.
Oh well that's marketing.

[bucket]

SF3

I don't want to bring the other marketing option into thread that bad, but you could have sold through the cwb and only got a portion of your money.

I think your sales look pretty good.

[Choice2U]

Bucket. Setting a price for your canola in the bin and pulling the pin when it hits is a good thing but that should be a management decision not a speculative one. How do you speculate with 50% (example)of their canola in the bin. If one speculates with their physical that the US drought gets worse and they get bad weather in Brazil, they are risking their $13.75 if the opposite happens as the price will likely fall and significantly. Ado is only risking $12/Mt to play speculator in the risky weather market. His lottery ticket is $12/Mt. What is the cost of the lottery ticket of the physical product if they are wrong....it could be way more.

[Jagfarms]

Just contracted 50% of our canola at $14 bu so the
price is sure to go up after I signed the contract. We
contracted 20% of the combine only 30% left.

[Daylate]

I know where your going with the $12 canola for
harvest sf3. I feel the same way. It's not competitive
to wheat. It has to be more to buy acres or wheat
has to be less.
I'm 60% sold at 13.55 for the year. I contracted 15%
@$12 last January for past harvest, because it was
the most profitable crop last year at that time, and
made me money in an average year. But this year
the carrot right now has to be bigger for me to bite
for harvest delivery given the current wheat market.

[bucket]

choice2u

I think I agreed with his strategy in a post above. I get it. If it goes down he is covered. If it goes up he participates in a rally.

I just sold some at 14. I think there is some upside, but I am ok with letting it fade to a 13.75 cash price. Not sure it will happen, I try to stay on top of it now. Good basis saying it is time to sell.

If the markets fade $12/mt I can still sell at a decent price.

I would like graincos to take some of SF3s advice and start raising new crop prices, but I am not sure they will do that until the bins are swept out.

[BTO_farmall]

Look At All The Dumb F#ckin Farmers on Here. Waitin it out All Winter To Sell fer $14 per Bu, When Yous Coulda Sold it off The Combine 4More. Ain't Gunna Wait it Out, Ain't Got No Business Holdin Out in The First Place, Drive The Markets Down Some More!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Oliver88]

The March to July inverse is now $20.70/tonne.
Interesting to see what happens in February.

[charliep]

Would also look at basis. Basis seems to be settled in
in the $10 to $20 over area with even higher levels in
unconfirmed cases.

If you like the idea of selling expensive/buying
cheap, the are likely a number of strategies that can
be used - particularly if you want to get canola moved
ahead of road ban/seeding.

[charliep]

I would look more at the March May spread. As Errol
said, July tends to be an in between futures caught in
the old/new crop world. Many companies will tend to
use November/basis to price canola through the late
spring/early summer. Better trading trading
volumes/ability to make better decision about
inventory/sales execution management as they
transition between crop years without worrying about
futures contract spreads.