US Wheat conditions.

[bucket]

errol. Thanks

Do you think the recovery in wheat stocks may have to do with lower cattle numbers in the states?

My theory is that if they closed a 4500 head/day slaughter house in texas, that equates to (4500 x 365) 1.5 million head per year that are no longer there producing calves. That is alot of feed no being chewed through.

Your thoughts?

[charliep]

I will let Errol answer your question

You like to make things complicated. Not a technician but what are the charts trying to tell you? Spreads in futures months? Changes in volume and open interest?

[errolanderson]

bucket . . . believe this herd reduction
is more an issue for corn than wheat.

Suspect that U.S. priced themselves out of
the global wheat market late summer and
turned off some buyers. They lost market
share. It's starting to come back now.

But it's always easier to lose a buyer and
earn one back.

[Burbert]

Let the whinning and snivelling continue.
Is there know end ta Comedian framers
looking fer a level field? Protein
spreads are bullshit at the besta times
cousin those machines is inaccurate,
duhhhhhhhhhhh! Grain companies make'em
say whatever they wants them ta say.......

[farmaholic]

Thanks for the protein chart Charlie.

Two things:
1: Under the circumstances, if Western
Canada is awash in protein and no one is
getting paid for above average protein,
then no one should be discounted for
below average protein either. If they
are, Handlers are taking the spread for
themselves, imagine that!!

2: We don't consume all we produce, with
that being said does it mean the World
is awash in protein also? Nobody needs
any high protein wheat to blend up some
poorer performing wheat?


Yeah I might be able to keep it til next
year and make payments and cash flow
operations with other commodities, but
the last time I checked bins aren't
free.

[HappyFarmer]

Farmaholic.

If there's one thing I've taken from the grain
business to the farm it's this. If the market is
telling you they don't want to pay for something
valuable you have, don't sell it to them.

I understand that not everyone is going to be in a
position to execute on that statement for cash flow
or storage reasons, but if you can it's worth it.
Don't want to sound like a know it all but maybe
can price some new crop in the next couple
months and deliver some of that stuff against it?
Personally have priced some new crop spring
wheat already but are going to wait to do more. I
think we are in the midst of a massive correction
upward in the wheat market.

It's a complete joke that no one wants to pay you
anything better that a 13.5 for that stuff. Too many
dumb robots in the grain business I guess.

[farmaholic]

HappyFarmer: I understand what you're
saying. But, I don't think they will
write a protein premium into a new crop
contract just like they wouldn't last
year. You can answer that for me, did
they? I agree, if I knew I could cash
flow the coming crop year without
selling this stuff I would keep it, but
bin space.... .

The new mantra is being happy with final
price in your pocket- grade and protein
don't matter anymore, if that's the
case then don't grade it boys!!!
Evolution right before our eyes!!!

[HappyFarmer]

I guess my train of thought is that even though
you can't write a protein premium in the contract,
you would think the likelihood of having another
Canadian crop with this kind of protein in low. You
would then get the applicable premiums at time of
delivery. But I guess you never know.

[Oliver88]

It seems absolutely crazy that no companies pay for protein above 13.5 especially if someone has protein above 16.

The CWB pool does sign contracts with categories showing protein up to 14.5, be interesting to see if there is added value with that.

[Hopperbin]

2012 no protien premium, its not going to stay that way

[Hopperbin]

although if too many farmers sign contracts for hrsw without the protien price then protien is going to be worth not much, no one would sign a hard red now would they?

[malleefarmer]

in australia no premium over 14% extra
protien is worth jack shit as endusers
have to blend lower quality wheat to
bring protien down.

Our protien parameters never change and
price per % pint of protien doesnt vary
much from year to year.

ask your local baker breadmaker candle
stickmaker

[TOM4CWB]

Bakers WANT 13.5 protein wheat... ESPECIALLY when
the US crop has SCADDS of extra px. Winter, Spring...
soft, hard... it was an unusually hot dry summer down
south... that made px a byproduct of the year. Same up
here in Canada in many cases. I doubt you could find
one end user that would want your high px wheat...
BLENDING DOWN isn't easy to get 13.5 from over
16px... to get a good wheat grist that makes good
flour on every last loaf... and mill without extra flour
extraction loss... the kernels need to be the same... as
low px... which seldom is the case.

Cheers!

[charliep]

Another challenge to a least some flour
mills/bakeries is on going challenges with poor
dough strength from western Canadian. From
Mondays meeting, this is coming from current
varieties and recent weather conditions. Not 100 %
sure the relationship but I think closely related to
gluten strength.

As TOM4CWB said, flour millers and their customers
want consistency above all else. From Monday's AWC
meeting, our customers (flour mills, bakers, etc) are
pretty sophisticated in how they use our wheat but
they need to know what they are dealing with.