5 year avg yield

[ado089]

With many land listings in there now at
4x I'm a little curious as to what
buttons guys are hitting on the
calculator make that work. A long term
metric for land affordability is 2.5x
gross income. We can all speculate on
grain prices but what yield do you use.
Between flood, hail, and finally flood,
hail and wind this year my canola avg is
bumping up of 20 Wheat is around 30.

Where is everyone else at?

While we're at it does your long term
canola outlook look closer to 12 or 9.

[wd9]

ado, land isn't about farming, its about
increasing land values. We farm time.

Just like Mcdonalds isn't about
hamburgers, its about the real estate.

[ado089]

I understand that concept fully well but
even McDonalds has to cash flow and show
positive returns on that property
investment. Following that same logic
why would anyone want to rent land if we
are just waiting for the cash out on the
property.

[westsider]

Mcdonalds is not about hamburgers? its about real estate? thats maybe the silliest thing i have ever heard on here.

[ColevilleH2S]

Wd thinks cash flow is for chumps and
capital appreciation is what life is all
about. He may be right, but a guy has
gotta eat in the mean time.

Besides having a pile of prime real
estate didn't do Zellers any good did
it.

I'm of the mind that you do what you do,
and the rest will come.

[Burbert]

Mikey D's motto. "You take care of the
customer and the business will take care
of itself." Duhhhhhhhh. There is a lot
of Comedian business aholes that
could/should learn this motto eh?

[Hopperbin]

They should really build a special calculator for farmers. Add up the last 5 years of yields minus the 3 lower ones divide by two. Times in brackets the last 5 year average prices of the best paying crop minus the lower three divide by two. Minus all expenses divided by two. Times that all by at least 20 years and land value is way under priced but would make it work for a bit.

Seriously I would have thought the loss of agristability as an insurance would have brought some sanity. Anyways I am sitting back and not much help on this subject.

Something that may help. Ado not sure what kind of land you farm if it ever had trees on or has been drained, but the last time I bought land I figured in how much it would cost today to clear that land of the bush and drain the sloughs and come up with a number higher than what I paid for the land. Land really was due for a break to the upside in my opinion so stuck my neck out at the time and it worked out good even went through all the frosts and floods etc etc with help from floating lowering interest rates. The scare was interest rates were going to rise at the time and I was prepared to forgo any machinery purchases in order to pay down loans if had to was not leasing.
And already skimping on the big ticket items. Things have now changed if comparing buying a new combine or 5 quarters of land. Now its the combine or one quarter of land. I am still not sure about this quantitative easing and printing money will have on the price of land. Things can be much more explosive on the price of land than just making money today. What will we make in the future?

[wd9]

Yes westsider, mcdonalds is about real
estate. What did you think it was,
hamburgers?