March Canola visualized

[errolanderson]

bucket yes . . . technically a strong close.

but Friday may be a profit-taking day

Funds and media are again in-control and realize Argentina is hot in areas, but heck . . . 'beans love hot' and yields are apt to be strong despite. This south american weather is still damn-near perfect and nothing compared to the American drought (IMO) and beans battled through.

Enjoy this rally while it's here.

[crusher]

I saw an ending stocks of 350,000 tonnes.
That is nothing. We may see a run at the
fall highs plus a fantastic basis. Love
it, love it. Throw in a squeeze, who
knows.

[BTO_farmall]

error,

Question 4You???? So Now That Yous Advised Yer Clients To Sell Everything Before This Rally, How'd You Explain To em' What has Currently Happened In The Market, HUH?????? Blowin Money, Stay Clean!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



"We contend, by contrast, that an 80m-tonne crop is not sufficient to materially pressure US soybean prices from current levels.

"In fact, we believe the US balance needs no less than an 80m-tonne soybean crop, to keep the stocks-to-use ratio above record lows."

[TOM4CWB]

Drew Lerner Mentioned at Farmtech that corn is
pollinating in Argentina... and 3.5 weeks with no rain
after much rain, yesterday.

Brazil is right on schedule for harvest... not too wet as
many have suggested.

Drew did not buy the Pacific cooling trend as some US
services are pushing... but that after 4-6 weeks the
pacific will warm again because of a 'wave' of water
that will cause compression... which warms the ocean
enough to mitigate the present cooling trend in the
eastern Pacific... with more neutral conditions moving
back towards the international date line.

Drew said watch closely... the Pacific 300M depth
water temps need to be monitored closely.

At this point Drew does not buy the 2nd big year of
drought as a given... but that it could develop later in
the spring if a High forms over the
Kansas/Oklahoma/Nebraska Hard Winter Wheat areas.
Self feeding... and may affect Spring wheat in Northern
US Plains IF it develops. If it did develop... then
drought could creep east into the central US... but the
eastern US corn belt... and SE US has good moisture
right now. If the US drought high did take hold...it
could affect SE SK and MB... but doubtful in early
spring any affect.

Could be a cooler and dryer spring in western
Canada... depends on the 18 year cycle and the solar
maximum... which is much weaker than normal so far.
Sun spot activity normally is higher than it has been on
this cycle... the 25 year sun cycle 'lag' is just starting to
turn flat and possibly global heating is turning down...
into a cooling cycle over the next few years.

Fall 2013 could be wetter than the past couple of
years... with a late spring frost a real possibility... as
the NW flow of weather systems will allow 'clipper' type
fronts to move in quickly and cause the potential frost
events a possibility.

Drew did a great job... will take in today again...
standing room only yesterday at Farmtech!

Cheers!

[TOM4CWB]

"Drew Lerner Mentioned at Farmtech that corn is
pollinating in Argentina... and 3.5 weeks with no rain
after much rain, yesterday."

There was a mention of some rain over the week end...
but not enough to break the drought is likely.

The 'much rain' was before the last 3.5 weeks... and
yesterday was referring to Drew Lerner's presentation.

[boarderbloke]

Thanks for posting all that TOM, Drew has been fairly close with his forecasts the last couple years, interesting. I can see how we might get a late spring frost this year as the weather pattern already seems that we've been getting quick blasts of cold air from the NW, usually with lots of wind, then followed by a thaw. Here SESK, we've had many more thaws in Dec and Jan already than normal. We haven't had the constant, steady cold, like some years. Two years ago, we didn't get a thaw from the end of Nov till Mar, made for a very long winter.

[crusher]

I heard Drew yesterday too. There were a lot of maybe's, percentages, different scenarios. He didn't sound nearly as confident as the last few times I heard him. I believe he missed the forecast for my area big time last year. Time will tell.

[TOM4CWB]

Crusher,

The frost being late was bang on. The dry fall was
exact for Killam... 10 miles north.... Hail and rain...
many storms caused havoc but the overall forecast was
close.

Getting farm specific is impossible... averages the only
possible way to forecast. Big year for hail... but for
people it missed...

Cheers!

[charliep]

Very interesting day today with a very strong open and then cereals starting to slip (not the close yet). Not surprising in that many traders like to even their positions ahead of a weekend/maybe profits.

Sunday night/Monday will be interesting.