Farmtech

[blackpowder]

Didn't make it this year.
Any take home messages? Fav. presenters?
New thoughts?
What did Drew Lerner have to say??

[TOM4CWB]

Blackpowder,

Good presentations again, I enjoy Merle Good on
estate planning... Pat Fabian on soybeans, and of
course Drew Lerner with spring summer weather.

I took in Ian White CWB CEO's presentation... they are
profitable 2012-13 and have downsized considerably.
Were told P and H have discounted CWB handle
(normally $30/t) to $19/t... and are working at all
Canadian Ports through grain co's on wheat/bly. We
were told CWB doing lots of trade reselling to end use
customers.

Use of Partnerships as the best tool for tax /estate
management was the gist of Merle and Greg Gartner
presentations...was well worth the time!

www.farmtechconference.com

visit:'Video coverage of FarmTech 2012' for good
highlights.http://farmtechconference.com/news/video
-coverage-of-farmtech-2012/

I will repost from 'temperature' thread on Drew's
presentation:

Drew Lerner talked about the 12 year sunspot cycle...
and the 6582 day cycle that coincides with lunar cycles
and 18 year Jet Stream cycles.

The earth lags about 25 years behind the solar
radiance/heat influence of sun spot cycles.

This last/present solar maximum is much less
activity/cooler than the previous solar maximum active
years... increasing the likely probability that we are
heading into a long term cooling trend.

Drew had about ten 12 year cycles on a chart... and the
last 4 have been getting progressively less active which
is in turn is flattening the temperature cycle.

We are in a cycle of warm cold quick North West jet
stream weather systems... Drew expects outbreaks of
cold... but an overall warmer winter and early spring.

Drew uses averages of the weather in Jet stream 18
year cycles...

Background: From the Saskatoon Crop Production
presentation; link at bottom... good summary for those
who want specifics Drew uses;

"Watching the jet stream Meteorologist Drew Lerner
has good and bad news for prairie farmers for this
spring, summer and fall


What happens in the U.S. rarely stays in the U.S.

Examples include low interest rates and difficult
borrowing conditions, reduced Canadian exports
because of American financial wrecks and high
agricultural commodity prices caused by American
corn-for-fuel policies and short U.S. grain supplies.

But does it have to be the weather, too?

This year’s predictions for good growing conditions on
the Canadian Prairies might be affected by what
happens in the United States.

If last year’s drought continues on the U.S. Plains, it
might affect conditions in the Prairies this summer,
says meteorologist Drew Lerner.

Lerner, who heads World Weather Inc., thinks Western
Canada should experience average weather conditions
this spring: a moderately dry April and May, ideal for
seeding, followed by a slightly cooler than average
summer, with a typical rainfall pattern. The fall will
most likely be wetter than usual.

The spoiler could come from another year of drought
that stretches from Texas north to the Dakotas and
covers the central U.S. from the Rockies to western
Iowa, stopping short of the corn belt.

A large, high-pressure ridge will develop over the
central West at some point during the summer.

It lasts for awhile in a normal year, when there is some
moisture on the ground, but eventually falters as
surface moisture evaporates, rises and disrupts the
atmospheric formation.

Left alone, the ridge produces intense heat and
drought and can spread north if it becomes large and
stable enough, keeping rain and other cooler, crop-
beneficial weather from developing in Western Canada.

Lerner said a combination of factors are conspiring to
continue the American drought west of the corn belt,
from the 18 year jet stream pattern to the effect of
solar spot activity, as well as other more terrestrial
issues.

The formation of one of those large, stable high-
pressure ridges would result in a 30 percent chance of
a mid-summer’s drought in the southern Prairies.

Those ridges tend to deliver cooler, northern air to the
Prairies when they form further south or remain
unstable, bringing with it the precipitation and lower
evaporation rates that will favour crop development
and higher yields.

The jet stream pattern that will dominate the summer
will enter North America over the U.S Pacific Northwest
and move gently to the north, passing over the grain
belt in southern Saskatchewan and dipping down
through the Dakotas and Minnesota.

“It’s generally a good signal for grain production out
here,” Lerner told the Saskatchewan Institute of
Agrologists seminar held during last week’s Crop
Production Show in Saskatoon.

He said weather tends to create patterns that are
somewhat repeatable but not too predictable because
there are so many factors at play.

Considering all the variables that can occur in weather,
all meteorologists can do this far ahead of seeding is
create forecasts by marrying the science to historical
data and their own research and experience.

Brian ***hs of the National Drought Mitigation Center
at the University of Nebraska said most of the drought
regions have poor moisture levels. It is unlikely that
those states will able to overcome their significant
moisture deficit by spring and summer.

Lerner said a continued drought in the U.S. would be
key to what happens in Western Canada.

“If the Plains and (West) don’t get out of their soil
moisture deficit by then, there won’t be enough
moisture in that region to disrupt the high pressure
ridge,” said Lerner.

According to last week’s Drought Monitor report, 86
percent of the Great Plains is in a severe drought, and
the vast majority of that was classed extreme.

Last week’s U.S. Department of Agriculture
meteorologist report by Brad Rippy reported that 60 to
72 percent of the region’s hay and cattle land was in a
drought situation.

The department has listed more than 350 of the 525
counties in the north-south wheat belt that runs from
Texas through North Dakota as in drought.

That resulted in the USDA declaring the middle and
southern part of the region a disaster area, making
those producers eligible for low interest loans and
other federal benefits.

“That’s why I provide forecasts on a bi-weekly basis,”
he said.

“This year should be a good one for farmers, but it will
depend on a lot factors and on a location by location
basis.”

Snow covers most the Prairies, but it carries little
water: a few tenths to a half an inch at most this year.
The November to early January period is in a moisture
deficit, despite some rain that fell between October
and December.

“It will be enough in most cases to get the crop in and
started, but in many areas they will be looking for
timely rains in June and July to fill it out,” Lerner said.

He said there is a 70 percent chance the jet stream
pattern will benefit the Canadian Prairies this year with
a slightly wetter, cooler summer.

“I think this bias will be helpful to most of you guys.
Late April and May there will be a warmer bias to the
southwest, meaning in Alberta and western and
southwestern Saskatchewan. In the northeast and in
Manitoba it will be biased to the cooler side,” he said.

“It will come down to how dominant this 18 year cycle
(of the jet stream) is. So far this winter it’s pretty
reliable. In the past it generated a slightly cool and dry
winter, and that is just what we are having here (on the
Prairies).”

He said 1959 was the fifth driest year, 1977 was the
16th and 1995 was 12th in the 64 years that the 18
year cycle has been tracked.

However winter cycles are more reliable than summer
ones, Lerner added.

For example, 1959 was the 29th warmest, 1977 was
the hottest and 1995 was 23rd wettest. Further
complicating the trend was that 1959 was fifth driest,
1977 was the ninth wettest and 1995 was 23rd
wettest.

El Nino and La Nina affected some of those years.

A significant American drought in 1977 stretched from
California to Alberta. A high pressure system became
stalled that summer and diverted rain north, according
to American weather records.

A mild El Nino was in place for 1959 and 1977, and
1995 was a moderate El Nino.

Summer should be more predictable without those
ocean effects, he added.

Lerner said drought might be in the forecast next year
as well, considering that 1960 was droughty in the U.S.
West and Western Canada.

While last year was similar to 1934, Lerner said 1935
was a wet year. Unfortunately for those who base their
predictions only on weather history, 1936 was another
terrible drought for most of North America.

“This summer, the more rain that falls in (the U.S.
wheat belt), the less you will get. But of course,
forecasts get more accurate as we get closer to the
date,” he said.

Lerner said with some confidence the fall will be wet
and cool, and producers should plan their planting
accordingly.

What is the jet stream?
The jet stream is a narrow current of relatively strong
winds concentrated in the upper atmosphere. It exists
where cold polar air and warm air masses are in
contact.

Encircling the globe at altitudes of nine to 13
kilometres above sea level in segments thousands of
kilometres long, hundreds of kilometres wide and
several kilometres thick, the jet stream flows west to
east in curving arcs as it undulates north and south.
The jet stream is strongest in winter, when core wind
speeds can reach up to 400 km/h.

Across North America, the polar jet stream is an
influential factor in daily weather patterns. Changes in
the jet stream indicate changes in the movement of
weather systems and thus changes in weather.

Source: Environment Canada"

http://www.producer.com/2013/01/u-s-drought-
could-spoil-good-weather-in-western-
canada%E2%80%A9/

Cheers!

[cropduster]

Thanks for this synopsis T4 !!!
Still doing bookwork/homework trying to influence a BAD budget!!!!!!!

[TOM4CWB]

Thanks Cropster!

We truly should look at doing up a statue of Minister
Ritz that is a golden wheat colour... we could even
have him pushing a wheel barrow with a sack of grain
in it! In the centre of the traffic circle at Portage and
Main would be the most appropriate spot... perhaps or
a new park at Coutts after you become the new gov.?

Cheers!

[agstar77]

Someplace where there are a lot of pigeons!!

[gregpet]

BTW when are the directors of the former CWB being inducted into the Hall of Shame?

[TOM4CWB]

Gregpet,

Hope the take away is; allow those responsible for
their assets... manage those assets...

If we say we know the future outcome ... we deceive
ourselves. Humble respect and care for each other...
will build a strong fortress and long lasting civilization.

When my forefathers came over during the Mayflower
period... being unconventional and seeking freedom
were in our bones! The tradition continues!

God bless Canada.